AZ Snake Pit - Arizona Diamondbacks sign Zack GreinkeAn unofficial Arizona Diamondbacks community and bloghttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47033/azsnakepit_f.png2015-12-14T19:00:02-05:00http://www.azsnakepit.com/rss/stream/96182452015-12-14T19:00:02-05:002015-12-14T19:00:02-05:00Will the Zack Greinke contract be good or bad?
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<figcaption>Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Let's gaze into the crystal ball and crunch some numbers. </p> <p>I'm using <a href="http://www.azsnakepit.com/2015/11/17/9751914/how-to-value-a-pitcher-over-time" target="new">shoewizard's method</a> of projecting value over the lifetime of a free-agent contract. There are four parameters which need to be plugged in to the equation.</p>
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<b>Greinke 2016 WAR</b>: <span>Zack Greinke's</span> value to the team in 2016. I start this off at 5.0 WAR<br>
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<b>Decline per year</b>: We expect his performance to decline over the course of the contract, simply because he is on the wrong side of the aging curve, having turned 32 in October. The default is a drop of 0.5 per year. </li>
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<b>Initial WAR cost</b>: The cost of a win in 2016. Let's start at $8m.<br>
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<b>WAR inflation</b>. The price of free-agent wins is going up, so that needs to be taken into account for the future years I used 5% inflation as the default.</li>
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<p>From these four inputs, we can first project Greinke's performance in WAR, then figure out its "value" in dollar by working out what the cost of each WAR will be for future seasons, and multiplying that by Zack's expected contribution to the team.to cost each year. Sum his value for each season, and we can see how the contract cost compares to his expected value. Below, you'll find a spreadsheet where you can try out various combinations of the above variables in the top four rows, and the rest of the table will then update to show you performance and value over the length of the contract, and how total cost compares to the total value. <iframe src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qVZVcRQF_EL04e_8ZPJs7dpexdd6bpnlMyInszfp9Aw/edit?usp=sharing" height="500" width="700"></iframe></p>
<p>I tend to think those defaults represent about a decent "best guess" in terms of Grienke's performance. Obviously, any decline is not going to be smooth - some years will be better, others worse. But based on that assumption, it looks like the overall value will sit a little north of $200 million, very close to the cost of the contract. But a slight tweak of the parameters can lead to a significant change. Dropping the WAR decline fractionally, from 0.5 to 0.4 WAR per year, results in $14.4 million of additional value. Similarly, if inflation is at 7% rather than 5%, that increases value $8.8 million, to $209 million, again in positive territory.</p>
<p>But the big change is if we adjust Greinke's baseline of production. Half an extra win next year, so 5.5, has a compound effect, as it means half an extra win the rest of the way too. And those wins are all the more valuable, because the cost of WAR escalates - even at 5% inflation, by the time Greinke's contract ends in 2021, one win will be worth more than $10 million. So, that half an extra win turns into $27.2 million more value over the lifetime of the contract. Conversely though, if Greinke declines faster than we expect - say, 0.75 WAR per year, rather than 0.5 - that would reduce its value by $38 million.</p>
<p>Anyway, have a play around, try out various scenarios and see what you think in regard to this deal. What do you have as your "best guess" of the parameters, and what are the results of that by the time it ends in 2021?</p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2015/12/14/10120566/zack-greinke-contract-diamondbacksJim McLennan2015-12-11T17:00:03-05:002015-12-11T17:00:03-05:00Diamondbacks' Zack Grienke introduced at Chase
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<figcaption>Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The newest Diamondback was officially brought on board, during a press-conferene at Chase Field this morning.</p> <p>[<em>Video through </em><a href="http://www.sports360az.com/2015/12/arizona-ace-greinke-believes-dbacks-build-for-success/"><em>360sportsaz.com</em></a>]</p>
<p>Probably the biggest thing to come out of the press-conference was that Greinke has cut his hair.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">First we lost Dansby Swanson's 80-grade hair, now Greinke gets a significant trim? WTF is happening right now?</p>— Jeff Wiser (@OutfieldGrass24) <a href="https://twitter.com/OutfieldGrass24/status/675375642989297664">December 11, 2015</a> </blockquote>
<p><script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>It was a somewhat awkward event, to be honest, which is perhaps a reflection of Greinke's social anxiety disorder, for which he <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/41701704/medication-helps-greinke-to-perform-at-high-level" target="new">takes Zoloft</a>. But, for some reason, it wasn't as if Stewart and De La Russa exactly looked ecstatic to be there either...</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Dbacks?src=hash">#Dbacks</a> man of the hour. <a href="https://t.co/Kg0JyZcen5">pic.twitter.com/Kg0JyZcen5</a></p>— Steve Gilbert (@SteveGilbertMLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/SteveGilbertMLB/status/675375522029789185">December 11, 2015</a> </blockquote>
<p><script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>Greinke made all the right noises, to be sure saying he began to notice the team and their style of play around the All-Star break this year, and was impressed with base-running in particular, and our "taking extra bases like crazy". But perhaps the most striking thing to come out of the event was Greinke admitting that he was"minutes away from going to a different team - it was that close." While he declined to go into details, the two with which he was most often connected were the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">San Francisco Giants</a> and the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Los Angeles Dodgers</a> - per <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/molly_knight/status/675381884394725376">Molly Knight</a>, most likely the Giants, who offered him a six-year, $195 million contract, with the Dodgers "a distant third."</p>
<p>If, fingers crossed, this signing does lead to success in future for the franchise, those few minutes will be all the more pivotal. While Greinke remained vague on most team-related questions, he did praise both <span>Robbie Ray</span> and Rubby De La Rosa, <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/azc_zachb/status/675400891483074560">calling the former</a> "way better than anybody gave him credit for," and saying De La Rosa "has an amazing arm." <a target="_blank" href="http://www.sports360az.com/2015/12/arizona-ace-greinke-believes-dbacks-build-for-success/">Said CBO Tony La Russa</a>, in <a target="_blank" href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/159430928/zack-greinke-introduced-by-d-backs">his own comments</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>We liked our position players going forward. We felt like with our young arms that a rotation leader is the number one thing that could really help us... We’re in debt to our ownership. [Friday] would not have happened if Ken [Kendrick] would not have stepped forward and made it happen... We were looking for a true No. 1, a true leader of the staff that would take the ball on Opening Day, and every day in the toughest game [he] would want to be out there We're very fortunate. This young man's in the midst of a great career, and now the next six years -- he'll be having them with us.</p></blockquote>
<p>Interestingly Kendrick still would not be drawn on details the financials, but <a href="https://twitter.com/azc_zachb/status/675388972961423360">did say</a> the amount deferred on Greinke's contract was about 10% of the amount deferred after 2001, which would be around $25 million. The owner <a href="https://twitter.com/azc_zachb/status/675389184190775296">added</a> that, the new TV deal does make it easier to handle, and he isn't worried about the team being able to meet its future obligations. So, appears there is no need for a Kickstarter campaign at the present time. If you missed the press conference. it will be on Fox Sports Arizona again tonight, airing at both 6pm and 11pm.</p>
<p>Now, is it Opening Day yet?</p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2015/12/11/9906294/arizona-diamondbacks-zack-grienke-introduced-chase-fieldJim McLennan2015-12-06T11:19:52-05:002015-12-06T11:19:52-05:00The Greinke paradigm shift
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<figcaption>Mike McGinnis/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The signing of Zack Greinke created a sudden paradigm shift for Diamondbacks fans, who are now "old" enough to appreciate it. </p> <p>I was only 11 when the <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Diamondbacks</a> signed <span>Randy Johnson</span> after the 1998 season. I recall my general reaction being "Huh, cool!" I didn't know the economics of Baseball front to back. (I still don't, but I didn't spend any time thinking about them back then. Mostly, I was into Star Wars video games.) Still, even I realized on some level that this was a sudden shift for the Diamondbacks from "Expansion Team" to "We're gonna try to win now, dammit!" This was joined by acquisitions of players like <span>Steve Finley</span> and <span>Luis Gonzalez</span>, who would eventually form the core of the 2001 <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/world-series" class="sbn-auto-link">World Series</a> Championship team.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1998/12/01/sports/baseball-johnson-signs-with-the-diamondbacks-for-52-million.html" target="_blank">The blurb in the New York Times about the signing</a> was as followed:</p>
<blockquote>And the winner is . . . the only nonwinner in the race.
<p> </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.lonestarball.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Texas Rangers</a> have won two division championships in the past three seasons, the Anaheim <a href="https://www.halosheaven.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Angels</a> just missed finishing first this year and have since added Mo Vaughn, and the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Los Angeles Dodgers</a> are looking to turn Rupert Murdoch's money into a championship.</p>
<p>But Randy Johnson, who could have signed with any of those teams, opted yesterday to join the Arizona Diamondbacks, the only team among the four with a losing record this year. Johnson, the most dominant left-handed pitcher in baseball, agreed to a four-year contract, with an option for a fifth year, for $52.4 million.</p>
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<p>Huh, cool!</p>
<p>(As a side note, Mo Vaughn hit .281/.358/.508 in his first season with the Angels. You might say "Hey, that's not bad.", remember it was the 90s and those were well below his career averages. He had a higher AAV than RJ!)</p>
<p>Back then, I hadn't lived through various Diamondback miscues that followed the 2001 season. I hadn't seen the 2002 team limp to the finish line then lay down and die during the playoffs. I hadn't seen the 2004 team just decide not to baseball for an entire season. I hadn't seen the 2005 team sign or trade for every guy I had kind of heard of, then fail to impress. I hadn't lived through reading about something seedy about <span>Jason Grimsley</span> every day. I hadn't lived through sitting stoic faced and numb in a Denver-area Bennigans during Game 3 of the NLCS when the <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Rockies</a> took the lead in the 6th inning with other happy people around me. I hadn't lived through the 2008 team underachieving, and the 2009 and 2010 teams only partially baseball.</p>
<p>I hadn't lived through 2011, which gave so much hope and optimism, only to have it end while shouting very naughty words in a theater when <span>Nyjer Morgan</span> drove in the winning run in Game 5 for the <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Brewers</a> (A team <span>Zack Greinke</span> was on, by the way.)</p>
<p>The years following that to now were just a sort of dull pounding, where the exciting moments were few and far between the relative mediocrity/badness. There was some minor hope going into this year, but I think most people thought that there would be some steady improvement, no big splashes, etc.</p>
<p>That all changed Friday night. When the first rumors of Arizona's interest in Zack Greinke started to spread, the general reaction from the Baseball zeitgeist, as it had been for any time the Diamondbacks had interest in any high-profile player including <span>Johnny Cueto</span> not too long ago, was essentially "Ha ha, look at that team, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y56-0HG8HlY">they think they're people!</a>" When it hit, everything changed. I know that's a vague and probably cliched way of saying that, but it is honestly the best way I can put it.</p>
<p>It was a sign that the "HA HA GRIT DERP" narrative would finally be hit over the head with a shovel like it needed to years ago. It was a sign that Ken Kendrick had finally stopped paying exorbitant amounts for Baseball cards and stopping people on the street to make them change clothes and start investing in the team. It was the sort of thing that the Diamondbacks just didn't do in recent years.</p>
<p>In short, it was all of those things that should have been felt at the Randy Johnson signing, but we hadn't gone through all the stuff after it. We, as a fanbase, are "old" enough to really appreciate what happened Friday. Not that we didn't appreciate the Randy Johnson signing at the time, nor did we not appreciate it after the fact, but the franchise had gone through very few tribulations back then, on or off the field. Greinke signing makes it feel like suffering through <span>Russ Ortiz</span> pitching, or the constant barrage of <span>Justin Upton</span> rumors, or <span>Chad Qualls</span>, or the rotating door of First Basemen pre-Goldy worth it.</p>
<p>Now, there's no guarantee that any of this will pan out, but that's for later. Right now the Diamondbacks are in a better position to win than they were this time last week. They're, at the very least, somewhat nationally relevant, and I'm more excited for the season to start than I have been in a very long time. All thanks to a $206 Million drop in the bucket announced a few days ago.</p>
<p>Huh, cool!</p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2015/12/6/9856794/the-greinke-paradigm-shiftCharlie Gebow2015-12-05T15:00:02-05:002015-12-05T15:00:02-05:00Zack Greinke to Arizona: The Twitterverse explodes
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<p>When it happened, it happened quickly. Which made Twitter the ideal place to follow yesterday's stunning news, as Zack Greinke signed for the Arizona Diamondbacks</p> <h5>The first whisper</h5>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sources: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/DBacks?src=hash">#DBacks</a> pursuing Greinke.</p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/672919154337402882">December 4, 2015</a>
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Needless to say, initial reaction was... skeptical, to put it mildly. In the spirit of our Gameday Threads, let's turn some of these red!
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal">@Ken_Rosenthal</a> pursuing as in chasing him through the hotel lobby in Nashville as he runs away?</p>— Reality Police (@RealityPolice15) <a href="https://twitter.com/RealityPolice15/status/672926461884502016">December 4, 2015</a>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal">@Ken_Rosenthal</a> they say are pursuing the biggest FA every year and they never sign. It's a PR stunt for fans. I don't buy it one bit</p>— J.D. Francis (@Joedfran) <a href="https://twitter.com/Joedfran/status/672933316614483968">December 5, 2015</a>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">.<a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal">@Ken_Rosenthal</a> is your source <a href="https://twitter.com/TheOnion">@TheOnion</a></p>— Kathleen Lee (@kathleenelee) <a href="https://twitter.com/kathleenelee/status/672919841423171585">December 4, 2015</a>
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[Kathleen did later follow-up, "LOL JOKES ON ME", so credit for that] Even our colleagues over at Fake Teams were raising a sardonic eyebrow.
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<p lang="tl" dir="ltr">“<a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal">@Ken_Rosenthal</a>: Sources: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/DBacks?src=hash">#DBacks</a> pursuing Greinke.” Hahahahaha</p>— Ray Guilfoyle (@faketeams) <a href="https://twitter.com/faketeams/status/672921517769007104">December 4, 2015</a>
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<h5>Atom bomb dropped. Clean-up on Aisle 5</h5>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sources: Greinke in agreement with <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/DBacks?src=hash">#DBacks</a>, pending physical.</p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/672944503452508161">December 5, 2015</a>
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Reaction was swift, decisive and at the hysterical level of CAPS LOCK ON over-reaction only Twitter can deliver.
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal">@Ken_Rosenthal</a> NO NO NO NO PLEASE TELL ME THIS IS A JOKE NO FUCKING WAY IN HELL</p>— syd (@ravioliniall) <a href="https://twitter.com/ravioliniall/status/672947097037967360">December 5, 2015</a>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal">@Ken_Rosenthal</a> I AM LITERALLY SHAKING & MY JAW IS STILL ON THE FLOOR JUST RIP MY FUCKING HEART OUT I'M DONE</p>— syd (@ravioliniall) <a href="https://twitter.com/ravioliniall/status/672948067608342529">December 5, 2015</a>
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However, there was some well-considered analysis also to be found.
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal">@Ken_Rosenthal</a> Finally some protection in the order for Goldschmidt</p>— Tony Zerucha (@TonyZerucha) <a href="https://twitter.com/TonyZerucha/status/672948484446654465">December 5, 2015</a>
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Hey, Greinke DID have more home-runs last year, than <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/33449/cliff-pennington">Cliff Pennington</a> in his 72 games...
<h5>The ripples spread</h5>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">I was in Safeway, and <a href="https://twitter.com/truebluela">@truebluela</a> texted me four very, very naughty words. For five seconds, I thought the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">Giants</a> had him.</p>— Grant Brisbee (@mccoveychron) <a href="https://twitter.com/mccoveychron/status/672950684707229697">December 5, 2015</a>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Greinke gone. LA's lone remaining perfect throwing motion is Alba <a href="https://t.co/hgkl5AjiQI">pic.twitter.com/hgkl5AjiQI</a></p>— Batting Stance Guy (@BattingStanceG) <a href="https://twitter.com/BattingStanceG/status/673158445017661440">December 5, 2015</a>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Best thing about Greinke signing with the <a href="https://twitter.com/Dbacks">@Dbacks</a>, he has multiple chances to hit <span>Carlos Quentin</span> again.</p>— Jeff Summers (@azjazzyj) <a href="https://twitter.com/azjazzyj/status/672988656286625792">December 5, 2015</a>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">So much for my planned under-the-radar prediction that the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> would be a playoff team in 2016.</p>— Andrew Baggarly (@extrabaggs) <a href="https://twitter.com/extrabaggs/status/672954590514446337">December 5, 2015</a>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Maybe its the money. Maybe its years. Most likely, its the security of knowin that youll see <span>Paul Goldschmidt</span> in his underwear almost daily.</p>— Andrew Phillips (@TheRealBigPoop) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheRealBigPoop/status/672952480381161472">December 5, 2015</a>
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<h5>Cry havoc, and let slip the Hudson of war!</h5>
The Diamondbacks' social media attack dog didn't hang around.
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">The uniforms must've sealed the deal. Suck it haters </p>— <span>Daniel Hudson</span> (@DHuddy41) <a href="https://twitter.com/DHuddy41/status/672947761306722305">December 5, 2015</a>
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Trying to remember the last time a D-backs' player's Tweet was retweeted over a thousand times!
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<p lang="und" dir="ltr"><a href="https://t.co/LUulte1mPf">https://t.co/LUulte1mPf</a></p>— Daniel Hudson (@DHuddy41) <a href="https://twitter.com/DHuddy41/status/672949426172768256">December 5, 2015</a>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Giants and Dodger fans right now in my mentions <a href="https://t.co/jfDH54NsZB">https://t.co/jfDH54NsZB</a></p>— Daniel Hudson (@DHuddy41) <a href="https://twitter.com/DHuddy41/status/672965532593709056">December 5, 2015</a>
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Never change, Huddy. Never change.
<h5>But, wait! There's more</h5>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sources: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/DBacks?src=hash">#DBacks</a>’ Stewart, La Russa met yesterday with free-agent RHP Mike Leake. Still interested even after reaching deal with Greinke.</p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/672951855597674498">December 5, 2015</a>
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Oh. My. [Read in a George Takei voice] Interesting times, folks. We live in very interesting times. 2020 might suck, f'sure, but right now? I'm as excited to be a D-backs fan as any time since Game 5 of the 2011 NLDS.
<p>I'll leave you with this plaintive little reaction, full of poign.
</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal">@Ken_Rosenthal</a> Snakes. Why does it always have to be snakes?</p>— moxiequz (@moxiequz) <a href="https://twitter.com/moxiequz/status/672924566340165633">December 4, 2015</a>
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https://www.azsnakepit.com/2015/12/5/9854016/zack-greinke-arizona-twitterJim McLennan2015-12-05T11:16:46-05:002015-12-05T11:16:46-05:00SnakeBytes, 12/5: Zack Greinke signing reactions
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<figcaption>Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>[Opens curtains] Yep, he's still a Diamondback. </p> <p><a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/hot-stove-stunner--zack-greinke-to-arizona-changes-landscape-of-nl-west-011620001.html" target="_blank">[Yahoo] Zack Greinke to Arizona changes landscape of NL West</a> - It remains to be seen if it has changed enough for Arizona to truly contend for a division championship, but it no doubt puts both the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">Giants</a> on their heels heading into the winter meetings... The lineup is in a good spot with perennial MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt providing a rock-solid anchor and <span>A.J. Pollock</span> looking like an All-Star caliber talent. If they get a better return on their investment in <span>Yasmany Tomas</span> and see continued progress in young players like <span>Ender Inciarte</span>, <span>Jake Lamb</span> and <span>Nick Ahmed</span>, their offensive ceiling may be even higher in 2016.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/12/04/zack-greinke-diamondbacks-free-agency-giants-dodgers" target="_blank">[SI.com] Zack Greinke: Diamondbacks land ace over rival Dodgers, Giants</a> - Mere hours ago the idea of the Dodgers and Giants scrambling to catch up while the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> were sitting pretty seemed absurd, but that appears to be where we are. The Diamondbacks are no longer sleepers in the NL West. With one outlandish signing, they have gone from up-and-coming to a legitimate power in their division, such that I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Dodgers finish third in 2016. Of course, there are many more moves to be made between then and now. Nonetheless, the balance of power in the NL West has unquestionably been altered.</p>
<p><a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.azcentral.com%2Fstory%2Fsports%2Fmlb%2Fdiamondbacks%2F2015%2F12%2F04%2Freports-zack-reinke-agrees-do-deal-arizona-diamondbacksg%2F76810184%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.azsnakepit.com%2F2015%2F12%2F5%2F9853710%2Fsnakebytes-12-5-zack-greinke-signing-reactions" target="_blank" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener">[AZ Central] Greinke agrees to 6-year, $206.5M deal with Diamondbacks</a> - Greinke is the ace the Diamondbacks have sought all offseason, and he figures to make them instant contenders. Backed by a lineup of prime-age players who scored the second-most runs in the National League this year and rated among the best defensive teams in baseball, Greinke will lead a rotation that also includes <span>Patrick Corbin</span>, <span>Robbie Ray</span> and Rubby De La Rosa. And the Diamondbacks might not be done adding starters.</p>
<p><a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.azcentral.com%2Fstory%2Fsports%2Fmlb%2Fdiamondbacks%2F2015%2F12%2F04%2Fbickley-diamondbacks-signing-zack-greinke-could-game-changer%2F76814546%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.azsnakepit.com%2F2015%2F12%2F5%2F9853710%2Fsnakebytes-12-5-zack-greinke-signing-reactions" target="_blank" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener">[Dan Bickley[ Diamondbacks signing Zack Greinke could be game-changer</a> - The stunning signing of <span>Zack Greinke</span> gives the Diamondbacks exactly what they need: an ace in the rotation and a rare headline during football season. This could be a game-changer in the Valley. Greinke is among the best pitchers in baseball. He will trigger a spike in season-ticket sales. He represents a huge victory for Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick, who just landed a top-tier free agent, the kind that has too often eluded the Diamondbacks and the neighboring Suns.</p>
<p><a href="http://m.dbacks.mlb.com/news/article/158870598/zack-greinke-makes-arizona-nl-west-contenders" target="_blank">[MLB.com] Zack Greinke makes Arizona NL West contender</a> - Signing Greinke doesn't, by itself, hand Arizona the NL West... It certainly makes it a three-team race, though. That's not something that could have been said about the NL West in a while. The D-backs, owners of one above-.500 season in the past seven years, with only one playoff series victory since winning <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/world-series">the World Series</a> in 2001, have hope.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2015/12/4/9852460/zack-greinke-diamondbacks-giants-dodgers-oh-come-on" target="_blank">[McCovey Chronicles] Zack Greinke signs six-year deal with Diamondbacks</a> - In three years, the Diamondbacks are going to still owe Greinke $120 million, and he might be <span>Jake Peavy</span>, give or take. Acceptable, but a drag on their budget. This is kind of their big shot, and they can't afford to miss. This is ludicrous money for nonsensical years, and there's going to be a point where the Giants are glad they aren't dealing with it. Unfortunately, that point isn't going to be next year, when they'll really, really, really, really want Greinke.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25401466/zack-greinke-signing-makes-diamondbacks-sneaky-contender" target="_blank">[CBS Sports] Zack Greinke signing makes Diamondbacks sneaky contender</a> - With the young position players who can both rake and pick it -- yard work guys, apparently -- in addition to the spending power, this has the look of a proverbial sleeping giant that decided to wake up with the Greinke signing... One of the NL's best offensive and defensive teams just added one of the league's best starting pitchers and can add more. If you aren't taking them seriously yet, you better start. These Snakes are starting to look a bit scary.</p>
<p><a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/66835/zack-greinke-signs-with-surprise-the-diamondbacks" target="_blank">[ESPN] Zack Greinke surprises by signing with Arizona Diamondbacks</a> - This easily could be a five- or six-win upgrade over the pitchers Greinke is displacing (at least for 2016). And it certainly makes the D-backs players in the NL West and wild-card race, especially if they can add another veteran pitcher -- will they also be in on Japanese star Kenta Maeda? -- and add a reliever or two and maybe get better production from second base. But maybe the best part of this, unless you're a Dodgers fan: A big star didn't go to one of the biggest markets. And that's good for the game.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-greinke-signs-arizona-diamondbacks-20151203-story.html" target="_blank">[LA Times] Zack Greinke signs six-year, $206.5-million deal with Arizona</a> - Will the Dodgers miss the playoffs next year? The question gained a significant amount of gravity Friday, as the Dodgers received word that Zack Greinke wouldn't return next season. Greinke's departure figures to be a setback for the Dodgers, whose rotation now consists of Clayton Kershaw and a series of wild cards... The Dodgers were 23-9 in games started by Greinke. They were 69-61 in games started by anyone else.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/diamondbacks-sign-zack-greinke-nl-west-gets-more-interesting/" target="_blank">[FanGraphs] Diamondbacks Sign Zack Greinke, NL West Gets More Interesting</a> - Before, Arizona was in a dead heat with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.fishstripes.com/">Marlins</a> for the 24th-best projected rotation. Now, they’re in a dead heat for 14th overall. That’s a lot better than where they were 24 hours ago.. Dbacks fans can be elated tonight. The Dbacks had to give up the 13th pick in the coming draft to net Greinke, but that is a small price to pay for landing one of the top pitchers in the game. And again, he’s not just good at pitching. he is good at hitting. Oh, and fielding, too.</p>
<p><a href="http://m.dbacks.mlb.com/news/article/158882434/d-backs-players-react-to-zack-greinke-signing" target="_blank">[MLB] D-backs players react to Zack Greinke signing</a> - Outfielder A.J. Pollock was also caught off guard. "I was stunned," he said. "Really don't have any words to describe the fact that we're getting Greinke. I guess the first thing that went through my head was I'm absolutely ecstatic that I don't have to face him." Pollock is 3-for-12 in his career against Greinke. "He's a nightmare to game plan for," added Pollock. "For me, he's the toughest pitcher to face in the league. So it's always good to add those guys to your team."</p>
<p><a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=4554" target="_blank">[Keith Law] Greinke should provide Diamondbacks value even at this price tag</a> - "The Diamondbacks need to see some offense from their middle infield and they need to add at least one more starter; the latter move would push either Rubby De La Rosa or <b>Patrick Corbin to the bullpen</b>, where they might provide the late-game relief option the team needs." Almost as amazing as Greinke signing with AZ, is people actually <i>paid ESPN</i> to read the previous sentence.</p>
<p>I'll save Twitter reactions for a later piece [breakfast is calling...], but let's just drop Daniel Hudson in here...</p>
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<p dir="ltr" lang="en">The uniforms must've sealed the deal. Suck it haters</p>
— Daniel Hudson (@DHuddy41) <a href="https://twitter.com/DHuddy41/status/672947761306722305">December 5, 2015</a>
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https://www.azsnakepit.com/2015/12/5/9853710/snakebytes-12-5-zack-greinke-signing-reactionsJim McLennan2015-12-04T22:14:33-05:002015-12-04T22:14:33-05:00Diamondbacks sign Zack Greinke: First thoughts
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<p>Woooooooooooooooooooooo!</p>
<p>Wait, what - you want actual thoughts? Oh, if you insist.... </p>
<p>Write this day down in your diary - not that I need to, since it's also my mother's birthday - but it seems highly likely this will be the day that defines the La Russa/Stewart era, and possibly even the Ken Kendrick era as well. That could be for good or ill, but I'm keeping my fingers crossed that it works out as well as the last time the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Arizona Diamondbacks</a> signed a grumpy, free-agent ace starter. On that occasion, which will be 17 years ago next Thursday., it was <span>Randy Johnson</span> who arrived in Phoenix, heralding an era of three division title in four years, peaking with the 2001 <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/world-series">World Series</a> championship, still the only title won by an Arizona team in the big four sports.</p>
<p>So, Greinke has some rather large shoes, in which to follow in the footsteps. But it's clear that ownership, along with CBO Tony La Russa and GM Tony Stewart, have decided that the next few seasons represent the team's best chance of success, with an MVP candidate in Paul Goldschmidt, the blossoming of <span>A.J. Pollock</span> and a number of rising young players. The obvious flaw in the roster was the starting pitching, and the arrival of Greinke - the undoubted Opening Day starter in 2016 - has addressed that. But, wait: for the Diamondbacks might not be done yet, because according to Ken Rosenthal (and he appears to know a great deal about the team, based on today!):</p>
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<p dir="ltr" lang="en">ICYMI: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/DBacks?src=hash">#DBacks</a> met with Leake yesterday, still interested in him even after reaching agreement with Greinke, per sources.</p>
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/672958731521499137">December 5, 2015</a>
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Wow. Anyway, let's put that to one side. This contract <i>blows away like a Jupiter storm</i>, any previous free-agent contract signed by the Diamondbacks. While full details are still emerging - in another throwback to the Colangelo era, there are deferrals involved - it appears that the contract is worth $206.5 million over a six-year period, which is more than <b>three times as much<i> </i></b>as the Arizona Diamondbacks have ever paid a free-agent, shattering into a million pieces the $68.5 million for which <span>Yasmany Tomas</span> signed, a little less than a year ago. As someone Tweeted, it's more per year than the entirety of <span>Paul Goldschmidt's</span> five-year contract.</p>
<p>Mrs. SnakePit will not be happy: she still hasn't forgiven the D-backs for signing <span>Eric Byrnes</span> and <span>Miguel Montero</span> to expensive contracts they failed to live up to, and this is by no means a risk-free investment. Come 2021, we may regret it - though flags fly forever, amIrite? Even now, it is putting a lot of our eggs in one basket: Depends on the break-down, but right now, Greinke represents something about <u>40%</u> of the Diamondbacks payroll for 2015. That is, it must be said, due in significant part to the youth of the team, with just about everyone cost-controlled. But it's still startling to realize that Greinke may well earn more than every other pitcher on the team put together.</p>
<p>I'll probably get round to figuring out the longer-term financial situation at some point [sorry, Kenta Maeda, that analysis of your potential signing might just have to wait over the weekend]. For now, a quick check of the current D-backs rotation (pending any further moves, naturally), has Greinke as #1, ahead of <span>Patrick Corbin</span> and <span>Robbie Ray</span>, with Rubby De La Rosa, <span>Chase Anderson</span>, <span>Archie Bradley</span> and <span>Aaron Blair</span> likely battling for the last two spots. Maybe this will allow the team to move De La Rosa to the bullpen?</p>
<p>But, right now, I'm going out for a celebratory sandwich.</p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2015/12/4/9852622/arizona-diamondbacks-sign-zack-greinke-first-thoughtsJim McLennan2015-12-04T20:44:49-05:002015-12-04T20:44:49-05:00Arizona Diamondbacks sign Zack Greinke.
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<figcaption>Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Well, that escalated quickly. </p> <p><b>4:23 pm</b></p>
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<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Sources: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/DBacks?src=hash">#DBacks</a> pursuing Greinke.</p>
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/672919154337402882">December 4, 2015</a>
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<b>6:04 pm</b></p>
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<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Sources: Greinke in agreement with <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/DBacks?src=hash">#DBacks</a>, pending physical.</p>
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/672944503452508161">December 5, 2015</a>
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<p>In the most stunning development of the off-season - indeed, perhaps of any off-season in the team's history - the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Arizona Diamondbacks</a> swooped in from under the noses of their division rivals, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">Giants</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a>, to steal away arguably the top free-agent pitcher on the market this winter. Over the past three years in the NL West, pitching for Los Angeles, Greinke has gone 51-15 with a 2.30 ERA. He immediately become the ace of the Diamondbacks' rotation, and the dynamics of the entire division just underwent a seismic shift.</p>
<p>This has certainly thrown a spanner in the works for this week's round-table discussion, which was centered largely on bemoaning the team's lack of activity on the starting pitcher front. And uniforms. I still don't quite know what to make of this, but will probably have some more coherent thoughts in due course. In the meantime, all I have to say is, WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!</p>
<p>Oh, and this thread is officially a free-fire zone. So let rip with all the FUCK YEAHS you want! :)</p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2015/12/4/9852404/arizona-diamondbacks-sign-zack-greinkeJim McLennan2015-12-04T19:30:02-05:002015-12-04T19:30:02-05:00Diamondbacks pursuing Zack Greinke?
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<p>It must be the new uniforms....</p> <p>Want a bombshell for a late Friday afternoon? Have one, courtesy of Ken Rosenthal:</p>
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<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Sources: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/DBacks?src=hash">#DBacks</a> pursuing Greinke.</p>
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/672919154337402882">December 4, 2015</a>
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Yeah, bet you didn't see that coming, did you. Now, there are obvious <i>caveats</i> over that. We don't know the source, we don't know how accurate it is, and we don't know how serious the pursuit is. It could be simply a ploy by the D-backs to drive up the price of Greinke for serious suitors - not least because, the two teams most often linked with Greinke of late are our division rivals, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">San Francisco Giants</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Los Angeles Dodgers</a>. The more money they have to spend on the starting pitcher, the less they will have to address other spots on the roster, so you can see the purpose of us "pursuing Greinke."</p>
<p>The cold, realist part of me suspects this, or something like it, is the case. But, it has to be said - and we've done so, more than once here - the team's future commitments, particularly for 2016, do not <i>necessarily</i> preclude them from paying Greinke over $30 million per year. The team, right now, appears to have rather more than that - about $45 million - in headroom between their current 25-man roster and the generally-perceived cap of $100 million. If they don't spend it on someone like Greinke, where is that money going to be spent?</p>
<p>I must confess to having conflicting feelings, because - and I know I'm not the only one - Greinke is pretty close to the top of my list of most-despised players over the past few years. Would that change, if he suddenly became an Arizona Diamondback? Let's cross that bridge when he comes to it. But I'll just leave this Tweet here...</p>
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<p dir="ltr" lang="und"><a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal">@Ken_Rosenthal</a> <a href="https://t.co/O5r3XyHQ1T">pic.twitter.com/O5r3XyHQ1T</a></p>
— Ethan (@ethanhats) <a href="https://twitter.com/ethanhats/status/672921906748727296">December 4, 2015</a>
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https://www.azsnakepit.com/2015/12/4/9852184/arizona-diamondbacks-pursuing-zack-greinkeJim McLennan