AZ Snake Pit - The Goldschmidt ExtensionAn unofficial Arizona Diamondbacks community and bloghttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47033/azsnakepit_f.png2013-03-30T23:03:28-04:00http://www.azsnakepit.com/rss/stream/39283092013-03-30T23:03:28-04:002013-03-30T23:03:28-04:00Gold for Goldschmidt: Analyzing the extension
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/vBqXMF6tLJ3b0Q34b3ZPsNkoEG4=/3x0:3996x2662/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/10699987/162463589.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Rich Pilling</figcaption>
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<p>Paul Goldschmidt was never exactly going to be on the first train out of Arizona. But he is now locked up, with his cost controlled, forever. Or perhaps it just seems that way...</p> <p>Let's start by updating my favorite chart.</p>
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<table class="oldschool"><tbody>
<tr>
<td width="30" align="CENTER" height="17"><b><br></b></td>
<td width="117" align="CENTER"><b>2013</b></td>
<td width="117" align="CENTER"><b>2014</b></td>
<td width="117" align="CENTER"><b>2015</b></td>
<td width="117" align="CENTER"><b>2016</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="18"><b>C</b></td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#00FFFF">Montero $10m</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#00FFFF">Montero $10m</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#00FFFF">Montero $12m</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#00FFFF">Montero $14m</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="18"><b>1B</b></td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#00FF00">Goldschmidt min.</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#00FF00">Goldschmidt $1m</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#00FF00">Goldschmidt$3m</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#00FF00">Goldschmidt$5.75m</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17"><b>2B</b></td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#FFCC99">Hill $5.5m</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#FFCC99">Hill $11m</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#FFCC99">Hill $12m</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#FFCC99">Hill $12m</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="18"><b>SS</b></td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#E6FF00">Pennington $1.75m</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#E6FF00">Pennington $3.25m</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#9999FF">Gregorius min.</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#9999FF">Gregorius min.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17"><b>3B</b></td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#EB613D">Prado $7m</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#94BD5E">Davidson min.</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#94BD5E">Davidson min.</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#94BD5E">Davidson min.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="18"><b>LF</b></td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#99CCFF">Kubel $7.5m</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#EB613D">Prado $11m</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#EB613D">Prado $11m</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#EB613D">Prado $11m</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17"><b>CF</b></td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#E6E6E6">Eaton min.</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#E6E6E6">Eaton min.</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#E6E6E6">Eaton min.</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#E6E6E6">Eaton Arb1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17"><b>RF</b></td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#FF8080">Ross $6.5m</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#FF8080">Ross $9.5m</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#FF8080">Ross $9.5m</td>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#FF8080">Ross $9.5m</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17"><b>Tot</b></td>
<td align="center">$39.25m</td>
<td align="center">$46.75m</td>
<td align="center">$49m</td>
<td align="center">$53.25+Arb1</td>
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</tbody></table>
<p>It's just another piece of cost-certainty. for the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a>, who it basically appears, no longer need to worry about any position players until 2017. Well, I'm sure we'll be worrying about them regardless, but the team we'll see on Monday is not going to be losing much to free agency before that point. It does get more costly each season, but the increase seems manageable, especially with a new TV deal looming in the second-half of that period. There will likely be some tough decisions to be made later on, because there's no way everyone can be retained, but it seems like a well-balanced mix of youth and experience.</p>
<p>As we <a target="_blank" href="http://www.azsnakepit.com/2013/3/12/4094320/paul-goldschmidt-extension-diamondbacks">already discussed</a>, the most obvious comparison for this deal is the one recently signed by <span>Allen Craig</span> with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a>. There's a slight difference in that Allen's starts immediately, while Goldzilla's won't kick in until next year [he reached an agreement with the team at the start of the month [the exact salary for 2013 isn't known, but it's likely close to half a million]. However, both contracts cover the first year of pre-arbitration, the three arbitration campaigns. and one year of free agency, with a team option for a second year. So, let's stack the two deals alongside each other, matching each player's season up.</p>
<table class="oldschool"><tbody>
<tr class="ui-state-even">
<td colspan="2" align="center"><b>Allen Craig</b></td>
<td align="center"><b> </b></td>
<td colspan="2"><b><span>Paul Goldschmidt</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr class="ui-state-even">
<td><b>Year </b></td>
<td align="center"><b>Value </b></td>
<td align="center"><b>Buyout </b></td>
<td align="center"><b>Value </b></td>
<td><b>Year </b></td>
</tr>
<tr class="ui-state-odd">
<td><i><b>2012</b></i></td>
<td align="center">[$0.495M]<br>
</td>
<td align="center">Servitude</td>
<td align="center">[$0.5m]</td>
<td><b>2013</b></td>
</tr>
<tr class="ui-state-odd">
<td><b>2013</b></td>
<td align="center">$1.75M</td>
<td align="center">Servitude</td>
<td align="center">$1.00M</td>
<td><b>2014</b></td>
</tr>
<tr class="ui-state-even">
<td><b>2014</b></td>
<td align="center">$2.75M</td>
<td align="center">Arbitration</td>
<td align="center">$3.00M</td>
<td><b>2015</b></td>
</tr>
<tr class="ui-state-odd">
<td><b>2015</b></td>
<td align="center">$5.5M</td>
<td align="center">Arbitration</td>
<td align="center">$5.75M</td>
<td><b>2016</b></td>
</tr>
<tr class="ui-state-even">
<td><b>2016</b></td>
<td align="center">$9.00M</td>
<td align="center">Arbitration</td>
<td align="center">$8.75M</td>
<td><b>2017</b></td>
</tr>
<tr class="ui-state-odd">
<td><b>2017</b></td>
<td align="center">$11.00M</td>
<td align="center">Free Agency</td>
<td align="center">$11.00M</td>
<td><b>2018</b></td>
</tr>
<tr class="ui-state-even">
<td><b>(2018)</b></td>
<td>($13M/$1M)</td>
<td>(Free Agency)</td>
<td align="center">($14.5M/$2m)</td>
<td><b>(2019)</b></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>Goldie's contract also includes a $500K signing bonus, not included above. If we throw that on to the 2014 salary, you can see that the breakdown matches Allen's deal very closely, with no more than a quarter-million dollars difference, until the option year. It's probably the case that Goldschmidt is slightly cheaper, on the basis of his deal starting a season later, so will be offset by an additional year of inflation. But they're basically strikingly similar, though even with that additional campaign, Goldschmidt is close to two years younger.</p>
<p>Will it be worth it? Over the course of the contract, it's kinda hard to see how it won't be. $32m over five years probably doesn't require much more than one WAR per year to be credible. Last season, Goldschmidt proved 2.8 fWAR or 3.3 bWAR, and that was <u>while</u> hitting right-handed pitching at a mediocre .739 OPS, the knock on his numbers noted by just about everyone. Really, as long as he keeps destroying southpaws like his fire-breathing Japanese namesake, and playing good defense, he need to be little more than "barely competent" against righties, and we can take two WAR or more to the bank.</p>
<p>Of course, it is worth bearing in mind that this isn't someone the team was going to lose anytime soon: even before the deal, Goldschmidt was under team control through 2018, and the Diamondbacks could easily have gone through until then, paying him season to season, based on his performance to date. It would certainly have been cheaper in 2014 to do that. However, beyond that? Who can tell. There was only a single first-year arbitration 1B in this year's crop, and <span>Daric Barton</span> is not a credible comparable for... well, anyone save Daric Barton. But I would take the over on Goldschmidt's performance being worth $3 million in 2015, and hopefully good value beyond that too.</p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2013/3/30/4163462/paul-goldschmidt-extensionJim McLennan2013-03-30T10:00:53-04:002013-03-30T10:00:53-04:00Short History of D-Backs Early Extensions
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<figcaption>Christian Petersen</figcaption>
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<p>Paul Goldschmidt is on the doorstep of being a millionaire, joining a rising trend of young players being extended early. It's a practice that has only really taken off in the past decade or less, and always cares risk. We look at the various players that were extended early by the Diamondbacks to see in what company Goldschmidt now stands.</p> <p>The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> don't have a long history of extending players early, which isn't surprising, given the short history of the team, the more recent trend of signing young players early, and that the Diamondbacks didn't have a ton of high profile new players until after 2004.</p>
<p>An early extension comes with the excitement that one of your favorite players might have more security, and it excites the news cycle. But it also comes with the dread and perhaps eventual dislike if the player doesn't live up to what is often a modest raise. </p>
<p>It's easy to see why teams like early extensions, as it create certainty in future expenses. Players largely like it because it also takes away from the risk that they'll get injured before any payday. Early extensions can also help alleviate the general fact that young players are grossly underpaid, whilst older players are grossly overpaid to make up for this. Although these extensions rarely pay the young, producing player their full value as they're earning it, the extension can help bridge the gap. See the recent <span>Mike Trout</span> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.halosheaven.com/">Angels</a> controversy for an example of a team choosing to not extend early and instead take advantage of the fact that they <i>don't </i>have to offer him anything more yet.</p>
<p>The following players are all ones developed (or largely developed) by the Diamondbacks, and received a larger payday before they reached the end of their rookie contract. It's not a long list, and although the aforementioned risk certainly carried with all of them, I think the high-profile nature of the names shows that the Diamondbacks have been pretty good about signing early.</p>
<p> </p>
<ol>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;"><b>Byung Hyun Kim - </b>Before his 2003 pay raise, Kim was better than gold for the Diamondbacks. In 3 1/2 season he never had an ERA+ lower than 100, and racked up 7.6 bWAR as our funky reliever. In 2002 he saved 36 games and was named an All-Star. It wasn't more of the same after his big bump from $762,500 to $3,250,000, being shipped off to Boston midseason after struggling as a starter, and then being kicked around the league for the rest of the decade. If there's a sunny side for Arizona out of this is that we didn't have to pay the higher contract for very long.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;"><b><span>Brandon Webb</span> </b>- His pre-2006 contract extension fairly modest at 4 years and $19.5MM, but if there's a guy who earned it in spades before and after, it was Webb. 14.4 WAR in 3 seasons before, 19.1 in 3 season after, along with 1 Cy Young Award and 3 All-Star Appearance. The end to his career may have had a little bitterness and tragedy to it, but no one can ever accuse Webb of not earning his money. Hopefully it's set him up to great lifetime of deep sea fishing.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;"><b>Chris Young - </b>Signed after his very good 2007 rookie year, in which the D-backs also stormed the playoffs, this was a more extreme example of the "sign early" trend. The prior two guys had a few years to show their stuff and had more traditional signings. Young was locked up early, so didn't have a big record to point towards. His 2007 season almost had a 30-30 in home runs and steals, but overall he only earned .7 WAR. His 2008 campaign was a disaster, but the big money didn't start rolling in until 2009. Overall he earned 14 WAR on his $28MM contract.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;"><b><span>Mark Reynolds</span> - </b>Signed right before the 2010 season, Reynold's contract was also escalating towards $7.5MM a year for $14.5MM overall. Before the contract he earned 5.1 WAR, but he only lasted 1 season and .4 WAR before being shipped off to Baltimore. Another case where the Diamondbacks didn't have to assume the largest part of the contract, but also a case where the faith wasn't rewarded.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;"><b><span>Justin Upton</span> </b>- Also signed before the 2010 season, Upton's 6 year, $50MM deal was pretty splashy. It was also considered a steal after his 2009 All-Star year, and people expected big things. He earned 5.1 WAR in 2 1/2 seasons before, and 10 WAR in 3 seasons afterwards, with another All-Star appearance and leading the D-backs to the 2011 playoffs. Now he's with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Braves</a>.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;"><b><span>Paul Goldschmidt</span> - </b>Reported at 5 years and $32MM, it's probably not going to break the bank. Up to this point in 1 1/2 seasons, Goldschmidt has earned 3.6 WAR. Here's hoping he's more like Webb or Upton, and not traded away instantly like Reynolds or Kim.</span></li>
</ol>
<p>So there you have it, the very short history of the Diamondbacks Early Extensions. I might have missed one or two, and I have no doubt someone will remind me in the comments. There's not a lot of history to go on here, and approximately $6MM a year isn't so bad for a guy with Goldschmidt's power. Hopefully he'll continue to mash.</p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2013/3/30/4164164/a-short-history-of-diamondbacks-early-contract-extensionssoco2013-03-29T11:25:18-04:002013-03-29T11:25:18-04:00Report: D'Backs and Goldschmidt Agree to Extension
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<figcaption>Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>According to Jim Bowden of ESPN, the Diamondbacks and Goldy have agreed on a 5 year, $32 Million extension. </p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p><span>Paul Goldschmidt</span> deal with <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Diamondbacks</a> is for 5yrs and $32 million dollars guaranteed according to club source</p>
— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) <a href="https://twitter.com/JimBowdenESPNxm/status/317654366326775808">March 29, 2013</a>
</blockquote>
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<p> </p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p>Can confirm Dbacks, Goldschmidt on verge of five-year, $32M deal. Would cover 2014-2018 with a $14.5M team option for 2019.</p>
— Nick Piecoro (@nickpiecoro) <a href="https://twitter.com/nickpiecoro/status/317656770967388160">March 29, 2013</a>
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<p>Obviously, this is all written with the caveat that it is being reported and not yet confirmed, but it would seem that the Diamondbacks and Paul Goldschmidt have agreed to the above mentioned extension. As you may or may not recall, the team approached him last month on the subject, but Goldschmidt balked (which was odd, since he is not a pitcher), but it was reported later that the two sides went back to the discussion table. As Nick P mentioned above, the deal would take him through 2018 with an option for 2019. Overall this comes out to around $6.4 Million AAV, which seems like good value for Goldschmidt if he puts up the sort of production he did last season.<br><br>Stay tuned to AZSnakepit for more on this story as it unfolds.</p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2013/3/29/4160704/report-dbacks-and-goldschmidt-agree-to-5-year-extensionCharlie Gebow