AZ Snake Pit - Game #95, 7/18: Diamondbacks 6, Cubs 4An unofficial Arizona Diamondbacks community and bloghttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47033/azsnakepit_f.png2021-07-18T20:36:31-04:00http://www.azsnakepit.com/rss/stream/223466562021-07-18T20:36:31-04:002021-07-18T20:36:31-04:00Diamondbacks 6, Cubs 4: Winning, in spite of themselves
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<figcaption>Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>An ugly W, as Merrill Kelly proves again the only starting pitcher who can get a W. </p> <h4 id="uYwX2U">Record: 27-68. Pace: 46-116. Change on 2004: -4.</h4>
<p id="BOOf8B">Through six innings this afternoon, the game had all the hallmarks of perhaps the most embarrassing Diamondbacks loss of the year. That was despite another excellent performance from Merrill Kelly, who was pitching economically and effectively. For the offense was squandering chance after chance in spectacular fashion, including one of the most cringe-worthy double plays I’ve ever seen. However, Arizona were gift-wrapped two runs in the seventh without a hit, breaking a tie, and they managed to hold on from there for the victory. That was despite a very strong sense of <em>deja vu</em> in the ninth, as Joakim Soria faced the man who homered off him yesterday. </p>
<p id="TOz1OL">To begin with, lets talk about Kelly, He became the first Diamondbacks’ starting pitcher to face any batters in the ninth inning since Clay Buchholz on August 16, 2018. The key to this performance was his economy. Over the first eight innings, Kelly did not need more than 12 pitches in any frame, and came into the ninth with a real shot at the franchise record for the fewest pitches in a nine-inning complete game. That stood at 93. Merrill had thrown just 75, and had a four-run lead, so it seems quite possible. Unfortunately, back-to-back hits, a double and an RBI single, probably forced the hand of manager Torey Lovullo, even though closer Joakim Soria took the loss last night.</p>
<p id="OFoDsP">The irony is that it doesn’t count as a quality start, since the runner Kelly bequeathed ended up scoring, to become the fourth run charged to him. Still, it would be hard to say this was other than another stalwart performance by him. Eight innings, six hits and no walks with six strikeouts. I mentioned in a preview comment how well Merrill does when he avoids the free passes. His record is now 5-2 when walking fewer than two batters, compared to 1-5 when he allows two or more bases on balls. Since the beginning of June, Kelly also has a record of 4-1. All other Diamondbacks’ starters are 0-19 combined over tha time. Still, over this series, our starters (Bumgarner, Gallen and Kelly) threw 19.1 innings with an ERA of 2.79. Hope? We’ll see.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">All-Star <a href="https://twitter.com/escobardelapica?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@escobardelapica</a> with his 1st blast of the second half! <a href="https://t.co/v7JI3crYib">pic.twitter.com/v7JI3crYib</a></p>— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) <a href="https://twitter.com/Dbacks/status/1416895469515526145?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 18, 2021</a>
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<p id="wzkeKf">It’s the sixth time this year the team has gone a whole game without walking a batter, something which stands in contrast to the Cubs. For, while the offense had its deficiencies, the Diamondbacks showed some good plate discipline and waited out some wildness to draw an impressive 11 walks in just 41 plate appearances. It’s the eighth time in franchise history they’ve had 11+ BB in a regulation game, but today was in the fewest number of PA. However, I think it’s fair to say, the good news for the offense largely stops there, except for Eduardo Escobar’s 21st home-run of the season (above). That two-run shot came in the eighth inning, and proved to be critical insurance, representing the final margin of victory. </p>
<p id="frTOnV">But until then? Hoo-boy. </p>
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<li id="TwjgJB">Third inning. Runner on third, one out. Stranded</li>
<li id="GzNPMV">Fourth inning. Bases loaded, no outs. Pavin Smith single for the first run of the game! Bases still loaded, still no outs. Nick Ahmed pops out, Daulton Varsho hits into a double-play.</li>
<li id="MrVTm6">Fifth inning. Bases loaded, two outs, after a Kole Calhoun single had made the score 2-0 earlier in the inning. Pavin Smith grounds out.</li>
<li id="fo0TtY">Sixth inning...</li>
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<p id="8SukxQ">Ah, dammit - this one requires a paragraph all to itself. The Cubs had tied it up, stringing together a pair of two-out, RBI hits. But Arizona came back immediately, with an Ahmed single and Varsho walk. Merrill Kelly put down a very nice sacrifice bunt to advance both of the runners, and Josh Rojas drew another walk, loading the bases for the third consecutive inning with one out [There’s a reason the D-backs are actually fourth in the majors this year, for plate apperances with the bases loaded. Now, what they DO with those chances is quite another thing, but there has been no shortage of chances] Calhoun was up, with a chance to give Arizona the lead again. Instead, this happened.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Diamondbacks find a new and creative way to get no runs out of a bases-loaded situation, as Kole Calhoun forgets to run all the way to first base. <a href="https://t.co/hpXTXD9ljw">pic.twitter.com/hpXTXD9ljw</a></p>— Zach Buchanan (@ZHBuchanan) <a href="https://twitter.com/ZHBuchanan/status/1416883884046704640?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 18, 2021</a>
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<p id="BHkzDy">Calhoun hit a hard ground-ball to first, where the Cubs’ 1B fielded it and threw home. Calhoun dove out of the way of the ball (that’s his first mistake, right there - I’m sure Tim Locastro would have worn it!) and tumbled to the ground. The Cubs catcher got the force at home-plate, then realized Calhoun had gone down and was only now heading up the line, after inexplicably <em>first heading back towards home plate to retrieve his helmet</em>. After what looked like a shocked pause, he threw to first in plenty of time to complete the inning-ending double-play. The old saw about “At any baseball game, there’s always a chance you’ll see something you’ve never seen before”? This would be it. </p>
<p id="9V9I3E">After the game, Calhoun did say in mitigation that he was a bit concerned about his recently repaired hamstrings, and also thought the catcher had called time. Still, if that had proved to be the deciding factor in today’s game, I’d have been mightily peeved. However, the Cubs gift-wrapped a pair of runs in the seventh, in a way even the D-backs’ hitters could not spurn the offering. That inning featured three walks; a pair of wild pitches, one scoring a run; a hit batter; and an RBI groundout by Ahmed, which Statcast tells me went 3 ft at an exit velocity of 54.7 mph. Still, it did the job, and Arizona scored twice without having to go to all that pesky trouble of getting a hit. </p>
<p id="PuIiW6">After Escobar’s homer made it 6-2, things looked promising until the ninth, when the Cubs got the tying run to the plate against Soria, in the shape of Wilson Contreras, who had cracked a two-run homer off our closer the previous night. This time the outcome was different, as he took a called strike three on a full count, and the D-backs averted the sweep. Rojas led the offense, reaching base safely five times, on a hit and four walks. He was the first Arizona player with a four BB game in exactly four years, the last being some guy called Paul Goldschmidt, on July 18, 2017. Here’s the post-game audio from Lovullo, Kelly and Calhoun.</p>
<h4 id="7u2cBH">Post-game audio [<a href="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22725247/audio_only.mp3">or link</a>]</h4>
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<div id="SJPCgA"><p style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?date=2021-07-18&team=Diamondbacks&dh=0&season=2021">Click for details</a> at Fangraphs.com
<br><b>Batman: Christian Walker, +27.8%</b>
<br>Bruce Wayne: Kelly, +18.8%; Escobar, +18.8%; Ahmed, +12.2%
<br><b><i>Joker: Kole Calhoun, -19.4%</i></b></p></div>
<p id="eMNgS1">Almost 350 comments in the GDT, with those present being: AzDbackfanInDc, Diamondhacks, GuruB, Jack Sommers, James Attwood, Jim McLennan, Justin27, Makakilo, NikT77, Oldenschoole, Snake_Bitten, VW Beetle, kilnborn and since_98. A whopping seven Sedona Red comments from which I can pick; I’m going with Justin’s sardonic line about the atmosphere at <s>Wrigley West</s>, sorry, Chase Field this afternoon.</p>
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<p id="TNUXW4">The D-backs finish their “road trip” and come back to what should be a more normal Chase tomorrow, starting a three-game series against the Pirates. Caleb Smith get the start, with the game beginning at 6:40 pm. </p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2021/7/18/22582872/diamondbacks-cubs-recapJim McLennan2021-07-18T16:00:00-04:002021-07-18T16:00:00-04:00Gameday Thread, #95: 7/18 vs. Cubs
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<figcaption>Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>On this week in 2008, The Dark Knight was #1 at the North American box-office. </p> <blockquote><p id="2WbBFy"> Do I really look like a guy with a plan? You know what I am? I’m a dog chasing cars. I wouldn’t know what to do with one if I caught it! You know, I just... *do* things. </p></blockquote>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/diamondbacks-gamedays/2021/7/18/22582643/gameday-thread-95-7-18-vs-cubsJim McLennan2021-07-18T15:00:00-04:002021-07-18T15:00:00-04:00D-backs Preview #95: 7/18 vs. Cubs
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<figcaption>Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Not QUITE the start to the second half the D-backs wanted... Merrill Kelly tries to prevent the sweep.</p> <div id="FTkQli">
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<h3>Today's Lineups</h3>
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<td align="left">CUBS
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<td align="left">DIAMONDBACKS
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<td class="td-last td-name">Anthony Rizzo - 1B</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Josh Rojas - 2B</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Kris Bryant - LF</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Kole Calhoun - RF</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Javier Baez - SS</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Eduardo Escobar - 3B</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Patrick Wisdom - 3B</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Christian Walker - 1B</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Jason Heyward - RF</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">David Peralta - LF</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Jake Marisnick - CF</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Pavin Smith - CF</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Nico Hoerner - 2B</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Nick Ahmed - SS</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Robinson Chirinos - C</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Daulton Varsho - C</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Zach Davies - RHP</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Merrill Kelly - RHP</td>
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<p id="DjxvR3">At least the D-backs have their ace on the mound. Wait, what? It’s a Merrill Kelly start? But here’s the reality. No other Arizona starter has won a game since May. That’s a span of 30 consecutive non-Merrill starts since Matt Peacock pitched six innings of two-run ball on May 30, as the D-backs beat the Cardinals 9-2. Kelly has the only three wins by an Arizona starter in that time. From June 1 on, he is 3-1 in eight starts with a 3.63 ERA, mostly by avoiding walks. His BB rate this season of 2.2 per nine innings, is the lowest of our regular starters, and among all Arizona pitchers with 10+ innings, is better than everyone bar Riley Smith (2.1). It’s essential with Merrill not striking out a huge number (7.7/9 IP, vs NL average for starters of 8.9). </p>
<p id="2iPu6K">You won’t be surprised to hear Kelly also tops Arizona’s list of starters for strike percentage, basically throwing only one ball every three pitches. His 66.6 % rate is above league average of 63.6%. That three percent may not seem much, but in the NL, the difference between the best and worst team strike rate is only 4.1%. Kelly is better than any team in the league. The low K-rate is because of the low percentage of swinging strikes from Merrill: only 15.8% compared to a league average of 19.4%. That’s a problem affecting the whole team: the D-backs rate of 16.6% is worst in the majors by some distance (next worst are the Cardinals at 17.8%). That perhaps shines a light on why AZ’s pitchers have struggled so much this season.</p>
<h4 id="b7TR9K">Torey Lovullo notes</h4>
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<strong>Ketel Marte</strong> has been out 23 days so far with left hamstring strain. Torey would still not offer a timeline for return. He had a follow up MRI which was clean and Torey said that his running has looked good . (Although one writer said he thought he saw him limping during pre game warmups today) Torey also would not say if a Reno rehab assignment is going to happen. Ketel will get live at bats in the AZL coming up and then they’ll decide</li>
<li id="jElzZk">
<strong>Carson Kelly</strong>, who’s been out 29 days is catching bullpens, took BP on the field, he’s throwing, basically all baseball activity. He just needs to keep increasing his workload. They will add in different things during the course of a week. The pain is manageable. But they need to make sure he’s asymptomatic and his timing is back.</li>
<li id="VxtwcL">
<strong>Luke Weaver’s </strong>bullpen went well. He threw 16 pitches plus some flat ground. </li>
<li id="1fBbht">
<strong>Taylor Clarke</strong> also threw 19 pitches plus flat ground. All good</li>
<li id="Aqy1iy">
<strong>Taylor Widener</strong> has not yet been named for Tuesday’s start but he’s the presumptive starter. The team must make a corresponding move so they are playing that close to the chest for now. </li>
<li id="sFO5BJ">
<strong>Daulton Varsho’s</strong> defense at catcher: Continuing to improve. He says he’s done great at game calling and following the game plan, but he felt Daulton should have blocked the wild pitch from Ramirez yesterday. He said that other than yesterday he feels that Daulton has caught all his popups and yesterday was a tough chance. </li>
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<h4 id="2Q9K82">Torey Lovullo audio [<a href="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22724893/torey.mp3">or link</a>]</h4>
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https://www.azsnakepit.com/diamondbacks-gamedays/2021/7/18/22582618/d-backs-preview-95-7-18-vs-cubsJim McLennanJack Sommers