AZ Snake Pit - Game #35, 5/6: Diamondbacks 1, Rays 12An unofficial Arizona Diamondbacks community and bloghttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47033/azsnakepit_f.png2019-05-06T22:39:30-04:00http://www.azsnakepit.com/rss/stream/182986042019-05-06T22:39:30-04:002019-05-06T22:39:30-04:00Diamondbacks 1, Rays 12: Spoiler Alert
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<img alt="Arizona Diamondbacks v Tampa Bay Rays" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/yo5k-q17Hhc878m648yL2NCDcaM=/0x213:2709x2019/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/63747565/1147441122.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Blake Snell was the story tonight, but least we broke up his perfect game bid in the sixth...</p> <p id="81w33p">It’s been awhile since my last recap, and so I was hoping for a good outing from <span>Merrill Kelly</span> and a fun, lively game from the rest of the squad. Sadly, however, it was not to be. <span>Kelly</span> was facing off against reigning AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell. <span>Kelly</span> didn’t have his best stuff, and didn’t get any help from the home plate umpire, but Snell made it clear from the outset that he was locked in, retiring the first three <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> he faced with only nine pitches, racking up two strikeouts. Yeah, it was all like that.</p>
<p id="Pqhnm1"><span>Kelly</span>, on the other hand, started shaky, and it only got shakier. <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/">Rays</a> leadoff hitter <span>Brandon Lowe</span> led off with a five-pitch walk, which <span>Tommy Pham</span> followed with a single to shallow left. The good guys just missed turning a double play on the next pitch, but Rays first baseman Ji-Man Choi beat out the throw, allowing Lowe to score from first. <span>Kelly</span> did manage to induce a double play to the next batter, <span>Yandy Diaz</span>, putting an end to a threat that could have turned out far worse than it did. <strong>1-0 Rays</strong></p>
<p id="uIZlFO"> The middle of the Diamondbacks went down quietly in order in the top of the second as well, though they made Snell throw twelve whole pitches (!!!) to get it done.</p>
<p id="yZMDGh">In the bottom of the frame, meanwhile, <span>Kelly</span> failed to dodge the crooked number bullet a second time. Three of the first four batters reached, sandwiched around a flyout by Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermeyer. Then <span>Kelly</span> walked in a run with a six-pitch walk to the guy in the Ray’s nine-spot. Kelly bounced back to strike out Brandon Lowe for the second out, and it began to feel like he might wriggle off the hook again. But nope. Tommy Pham took the second pitch he saw from Kelly and deposited over the wall in straightaway center for the grand slam. <strong>6-0 Rays</strong></p>
<p id="Aq77TC">Things started to get a bit grim in the Game Day thread at about this point, I gotta say. Snell continued to cruise, retiring the next nine batters he faced and carrying a perfect game through the fifth. Kelly gave up another run in the third on a leadoff double from <span>Yandy Diaz</span>. He did manage to set the Rays down in order in the fourth, but he was 94 pitches by then, so his night was done and he was replaced by <span>Zack Godley</span> working his first game out of the bullpen. <strong>7-0 Rays</strong></p>
<p id="E1TO3t">We starting getting predictions in the GDT, regarding the perfect game, two of which, rather remarkably, came true in the sixth. First there was this:</p>
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<p id="8VWy8L">That was followed, some time later, by this:</p>
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<p id="B7FRgs">Both of these came true in back-to-back at bats in the sixth, as <span>Ildemaro Vargas</span> broke up the perfect game with a single to left. <span>Tim Locastro</span> followed with one of his trademark hit-by-pitches. No runs were scored, but Snell’s perfect game got spoiled, and he exited after finishing up the inning.</p>
<p id="h9PMXN"><span>Godley</span>, meanwhile, looked fairly good in his first two innings of relief work, putting up zeros and not using a bunch of pitches to do it. His seventh inning was another story, though, as he racked up two outs sandwiched around a walk, but then gave up three consecutive hits that scored three more runs. <strong>10-0 Rays</strong></p>
<p id="cvRieo"><span>John Ryan Murphy</span>, relief pitcher of last resort, came in to pitch the bottom of the eighth, and as one might expect, gave up two more runs on an almost-dinger to <span>Nate Lowe</span> that was followed by a genuine dinger to <span>Avisail Garcia</span>. <strong>12-0 Rays</strong> </p>
<p id="0tYnAT">In the eleventh hour, though, the Diamondbacks did manage to get on the board, though it was only due to a Rays error. <span>Blake Swihart</span> hit a one-out single, <span>Carson Kelly</span> followed with a walk, and then <span>Adam Jones</span> hit a grounder to third that might have been a game-ender, except Rays third baseman Andrew Velasquez fluffed the throw, allowing <span>Swihart</span> to score and <span>Jones</span> to reach second. That was it, though. Sad times. <strong>12-1 Rays</strong></p>
<h3 id="I90v88"><strong>Bells and Whistles, from Fangraphs</strong></h3>
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<p id="jbAguv"><strong>UPDATE:</strong> I almost forgot about this part. Perhaps amusingly, there was only a single Diamondbacks player who contributed a positive WPA tonight. So, here’s what we got:</p>
<p id="1ZQTnu"><strong>A Small Red Helium Balloon Set Free into the Florida Sky by a Waifish Child: Zack Godley, +0.1% WPA</strong><br><strong>The Hindenburg: Merrill Kelly, -35.4% WPA</strong></p>
<p id="llTPG3">For such a grim game that went south so early, we had quite a robust and fun Game Day Thread—341 comments!—with gallows humor to spare! Present and accounted for (including a couple of friendly Rays fans who dropped by to chat) were: <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/AzDbackfanInDc">AzDbackfanInDc</a>, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/Dano_in_Tucson">Dano_in_Tucson</a>, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/David%20Kristoffer">David Kristoffer</a>, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/Diamondhacks">Diamondhacks</a>, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/GuruB">GuruB</a>, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/Hannibal4467">Hannibal4467</a>, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/Jack%20Sommers">Jack Sommers</a>, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/Jim%20McLennan">Jim McLennan</a>, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/Jimmy%20Pop%20SD">Jimmy Pop SD</a>, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/JoeCB1991">JoeCB1991</a>, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/Makakilo">Makakilo</a>, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/MikeMono">MikeMono</a>, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/MrMrrbi">MrMrrbi</a>, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/NikT77">NikT77</a>, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/RAYS_UP">RAYS_UP</a>, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/Rockkstarr12">Rockkstarr12</a>, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/Samburt">Samburt</a>, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/Smurf1000">Smurf1000</a>, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/Snake_Bitten">Snake_Bitten</a>, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/VeeLoh">VeeLoh</a>, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/edbigghead">edbigghead</a>, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/kilnborn">kilnborn</a>, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/onedotfive">onedotfive</a></p>
<p id="KnxrqP">Hannibal (or should I say Hanstradamus?) led the way with 67 comments. CoTN, judging by the Sedona Red, goes to MikeMono, for throwing some of the only shade we could throw on a team that outclassed us tonight:</p>
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<p id="tfkmyq">Still, it’s only one game, so let’s see if we can’t bounce back tomorrow. Start time is again 4:10pm AZ time, so tune in for <span>Taylor Clarke</span>’s first major league start as he takes the mound! Thanks for reading!</p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2019/5/6/18534844/diamondbacks-1-rays-12-spoiler-alertDano_in_Tucson2019-05-06T19:00:00-04:002019-05-06T19:00:00-04:00Gameday Thread, #35: 5/6 @ Rays
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<img alt="LZ-129 Disaster" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/nwhqUCwnKZTJS7_Za1-IFQQNzOc=/0x92:3405x2362/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/63746547/2665005.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Sam Shere/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">May 6 - 1937: U.S. - the German zeppelin Hindenburg caught fire and destroyed at Lakehurst, New Jersey with 36 people killed ~ Hindenburg disaster. history</p>— Today In History (@Yesterday_Today) <a href="https://twitter.com/Yesterday_Today/status/1125508786138099712?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 6, 2019</a>
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https://www.azsnakepit.com/diamondbacks-gamedays/2019/5/6/18534617/gameday-thread-35-5-6-raysJim McLennan2019-05-06T18:00:00-04:002019-05-06T18:00:00-04:00Preview, #35: 5/6 @ Rays
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<img alt="Arizona Diamondbacks v Pittsburgh Pirates" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/bbILTew4pFES3gfYOES8sChySZw=/0x0:3000x2000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/63746535/1138984970.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Into the land of the DH go the Diamondbacks...</p> <div id="PtWbTr">
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<h3>Today's Lineups</h3>
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<th align="left">DIAMONDBACKS</th>
<th align="left">RAYS</th>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Tim Locastro - LF</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Brandon Lowe - 2B</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Ketel Marte - CF</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Tommy Pham - LF</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Eduardo Escobar - DH</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Ji-Man Choi - 1B</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Adam Jones - RF</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Yandy Diaz - 3B</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Christian Walker - 1B</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Nate Lowe - DH</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Wilmer Flores - 2B</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Avisail Garcia - RF</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Nick Ahmed - SS</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Kevin Kiermaier - CF</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">John Ryan Murphy - C</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Mike Zunino - C</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Ildemaro Vargas - 3B</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Daniel Robertson - SS</td>
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<p id="vKocV7">It’s always interesting to see who the <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> use as a designated hitter, when they play in American League parks. This afternoon, it’s <span>Eduardo Escobar</span> who is the “lucky” recipient of a <em>somewhat</em> off-day, getting to ride the pine between his trips to the plate. The typical DH is someone who carried a big stick, but is defensively challenged, so you can use the opportunity to get an upgrade in the field, while still retaining their bat in the line-up. I’m not sure who would be the most obvious D-back by those parameters. Based on the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=15&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d">Fangraphs defensive metrics</a> (small sample size warning!), <span>Christian Walker</span> and <span>Wilmer Flores</span> are probably the leading candidates. </p>
<p id="Ae7DKH">More generally with <span>Walker</span>, I am a little concerned about what’ll happen when his BABIP falls back from its current, unsustainable level of .411. Now, a chunk of that is likely a result of how damn ferociously he is scorching the ball. Again per Fangraphs, <span>Walker</span>’s 65.0% rate of hard-hit balls is the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=70&type=2&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d">best in the majors</a> (min 75 PA), and it’s not particularly close. My research (two minutes of Googling) couldn’t find a page which told me what Walker’s BABIP “should” be, given his batted-ball profile, but that .411 figure still seems pretty damn high. Since 1998, only one qualified batter - <span>Jose Hernandez</span> for the 2002 <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Brewers</a> - has managed a BABIP over an entire season of .400, so while it’s <em>possible</em> for Walker... Don’t count on it. </p>
<p id="L9s5pM">There’s no doubt Walker has been fabulous so far. By fWAR, the only first-baseman in the majors who <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=12,d">has been worth more</a> than his 1.3 fWAR, is the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a>’ <span>Cody Bellinger</span> (at an insane 3.2 fWAR). Christian is tied with fellow rooke Peter Alonzo of the <a href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/">Mets</a>, and a LONG way ahead of the <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a>’ first-baseman, who is currently ranked fourteenth, at 0.6 fWAR. I have to say, it generally appears that the players Mike Hazen let go this winter, have generally not been as effective as their Arizona replacements. Not just Walker/Goldy, but if you compare <span>Adam Jones</span>/<span>A.J. Pollock</span>, <span>Greg Holland</span>/<span>Brad Boxberger</span> or even <span>Luke Weaver</span>/<span>Patrick Corbin</span>, the D-backs seem to come out rather well...</p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/diamondbacks-gamedays/2019/5/6/18534566/preview-35-5-6-raysJim McLennan