AZ Snake Pit - 2019 Series PreviewsAn unofficial Arizona Diamondbacks community and bloghttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47033/azsnakepit_f.png2019-09-21T11:28:39-04:00http://www.azsnakepit.com/rss/stream/180605082019-09-21T11:28:39-04:002019-09-21T11:28:39-04:00Series Preview #50: Diamondbacks @ Padres
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<img alt="Arizona Diamondbacks v San Diego Padres" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/kM7WuMqQ-3DsBY3rjeGyAgwgSjE=/0x723:2843x2618/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/65292072/1151093147.jpg.5.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Better Late than Never</p> <p id="su8tLM">The subtitle of the article can be referring to the return of <span>Luke Weaver</span>, the belated improved play by the <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a>, or to my failure to get a series preview up yesterday afternoon. You decide. </p>
<p id="sxEVNy">After taking two of three at home vs. the <a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/">Marlins</a>, the DBacks opened the last road series of the year with a big win at San Diego last night. You can get the details on that in yet another <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/2019/9/21/20876252/diamondbacks-9-padres-0-a-beercap-to-herald-the-end-of-summer">kick ass Beercap</a></p>
<p id="LeNxTk">Their 79-75 record still leaves the team 5 games out of the Wild Card behind the <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Brewers</a>, and an elimination number of 4. Any combination of DBacks losses and Brewers victories that total 4 eliminates the snakes. BUT....if the DBacks win out over their last 8 games and Milwaukee goes 3-5, then they would be tied at 87-75 and have to play one game to determine who would play one game against the <a href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/">Nationals</a>. Sorry, I just had to write that out for fun. The fact is it’s September 21st, and there isn’t an E next to their name in the standings, and the earliest that might happen is September 23rd. I’ve jokingly used the #Pretendtocontend hashtag in the past, but I really never saw them making it this long into the season without being eliminated. I had them at 77 wins in the pre season prediction thread, and I lowered my estimate by 2 games to 75 after the Souza injury, and took the under on 75.5 at the AZSnakepit Casino. </p>
<p id="EaM24q"> It’s been another dismal season for the Friars. They are a full 10 games worse than the DBacks with a 69-85 record. And they deserve it, having a -94 run differential. A lot of things went wrong for them this year:</p>
<p id="oHar8l"><span>Manny Machado</span> , who signed a 10 year, 300M contract with the <a href="https://www.gaslampball.com/">Padres</a> turned in a very disappointing first season, putting up just a .251/.330/.453 .783 OPS, 106 OPS+ batting line and 3.0 WAR</p>
<p id="YN5F3F">Breakout rookie Shortstop, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tatisfe02.shtml">Fernando Tatis Jr</a> was having an incredible season. Just 20 years old, he was hitting .317/.379/.590 .969 OPS, 152 OPS+, posting 4.3 WAR in just 84 games. Unfortunately for him his season ended on August 13th with a stress fracture in his lower back, suffered on a swing. The type of injury he had is notable, because it’s the same or similar diagnosis as <span>Ketel Marte</span> just received. To be clear, a “stress reaction” is the precursor to a stress fracture, or in other words, a mild form of fracture. It is a repetitive stress injury, and will heal with rest, but from what I’ve been reading can easily recur once sports activity is resumed. </p>
<p id="9tK09d">Both the Padres and Diamondbacks medical staffs will have their work cut out for them trying to find ways to keep their young stars healthy and on the field next year. <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.azcentral.com%2Fstory%2Fsports%2Fmlb%2Fdiamondbacks%2F2019%2F09%2F20%2Farizona-diamondbacks-ketel-martes-season-ends-injury-leaves-questions%2F2393256001%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.azsnakepit.com%2F2019%2F9%2F21%2F20877042%2Fseries-preview-50-diamondbacks-padres" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Nick Piecoro wrote</a></p>
<p id="m2raZF"><em><strong>Hazen expects the club’s training staff will devise a strengthening/maintenance plan for </strong></em><span><em><strong>Marte</strong></em></span><em><strong> prior to next season to allow him to stay ahead of the issue.</strong></em></p>
<p id="zfel6G"><em><strong>“Guys that have general back issues,” he said, “you can strengthen those core muscles to protect them. We’re just trying to map out these types of plans.”</strong></em></p>
<p id="eLaRjM"><span>Eric Hosmer</span>, who still has 6 years, 102 M left on his contract with the Padres turned in his 2nd straight disappointing season. On the surface his triple crown stats may look reasonably productive, (.273/21 HR/96 RBI). But they aren’t. He has 640 Plate Appearances and made 450 outs, which are the <strong>6th most outs in all of MLB</strong>. His OBP is just .320. So simply put, he has used up far too many outs batting in the middle of their lineup to get to 96 RBI. The Low OBP, high RBI total guy is one of the most easily overrated type of player in baseball, and in fact is often a signature of a bad team. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=y19J1">(Example here)</a> The bottom line with <span>Hosmer</span> is his 98 OPS+ and 0.1 WAR make him a replacement level player, and that is even worse than last year when he had a 100 OPS+ and just 1.4 WAR. He is a bust of a signing for San Diego and is failing miserably to live up to his contract. </p>
<p id="Tm3XWo">Other than Tatis before the injury, the best parts of San Diego’s season have been a strong rookie season from Chris Paddock, (9-7, 3.33 ERA, 128 ERA+) and an incredibly great and incredibly wasted season from All Star closer <span>Kirby Yates</span>, (1.23 ERA, 354 ERA+, 41 Saves, <strong>100 K’s vs. 13 walks</strong> in 59 IP !!)</p>
<p id="XFeH1d">The Padres have a very good farm system, and could be better in the future. But we’ve heard that before. The mis fires on their free agent deals and lack of pitching depth need to be overcome for them to take next steps. </p>
<p id="2rXx8h"><strong>PITCHING MATCHUPS:</strong></p>
<p id="8PGr6S"><strong>Saturday, September 21, 5:40 P.M. at Petco Park</strong></p>
<p id="FDqPfc"><span>Luke Weaver</span> <strong> (4-3, 3.03 ERA, 1.6 WAR in just 62 IP) </strong>will make his return to the mound tonight. He was shut down early in the season with an elbow injury. <span>Weaver</span> will be on a 30 pitch limit, and is taking the slot of <span>Zac Gallen</span>, who has already thrown 171 IP this year, compared to 133 last year. It will be a bullpen game for the Dbacks. </p>
<p id="SPFWLj">Rookie Cal Quantrill <strong> (6-8, 5.33 ERA 80 ERA+ in 98 IP ) </strong>gets the ball for San Diego. He started off the season well, but has had a very rough stretch of late. The Dbacks just faced him on <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ARI/ARI201909020.shtml">September 2nd</a>, and beat him up for 8 earned runs in 5 innings in a 14-7 Snakes victory. More please.</p>
<p id="Wyrrjg"><strong>Sunday, September 22nd, 1:10 P.M. at Petco Park</strong></p>
<p id="mp77kH"><span>Robbie Ray</span>, <strong>(12-8, 4.20 ERA, 107 ERA+)</strong> had a bounce back outing against the Marlins last time out, pitching into the 7th inning and allowing just 1 run. His previous two starts had been shortened due to a blister. A couple of strong starts to finish the season would sure help increase his trade value some. </p>
<p id="Cv0Tu7"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/UGCH5">Padres hitters vs. Ray</a>. Surprising amount of success in that link vs. <span>Ray</span></p>
<p id="Icufhe"><span>Garrett Richards</span> is making just his second start of the year, coming back from Tommy John Surgery July of last year. In his first outing he went 3 <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> IP and allowed 3 runs. He threw 61 pitches, so I can’t imagine they let him go much past 70.</p>
<p id="7U3qR8"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/oCpN4">DBacks hitters vs. Richards</a>. Only Adam Jones of note. </p>
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https://www.azsnakepit.com/2019/9/21/20877042/series-preview-50-diamondbacks-padresJack Sommers2019-09-09T13:00:00-04:002019-09-09T13:00:00-04:00Series Preview # 47 DBacks @ Mets
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<p>A critical 4 game series in Ebbets.....er Citi Field</p> <p id="lgsoiZ">Since a 15-1 stretch in late July-Early August vaulted the <a href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/">New York Mets</a> into the Wild Card race, they have since gone 11-14, and lost two in a row. At 72-70 they have fallen 4 games back of the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> and 2.5 Games back of the Dbacks. They have struggled on the road this year with a 39-53 record. </p>
<p id="Cd5Gzo">Their offense ranks 2nd in the National League in OPS+, (103) trailing only the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a>. Lead by rookie <span>Pete Alonso</span> and his 45 HR and 152 OPS+, they have solid hitters in J.D Davis, <span>Michael Conforto</span> and <span>Jeff McNeil</span> as well. </p>
<p id="oJ8xQu">The Mets have a strong rotation, lead by <span>Jacob deGrom</span>. But the team has posted just a 94 ERA+, which ranks 13th in the NL. Closer Edwin Diaz has been a tire fire all year. They’ve had only two truly reliable relievers, <span>Seth Lugo</span> and lefty Justin Wilson. And their <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/1zdHB">defense ranks dead last in the NL </a>with -81 Defensive Runs Saved. Undoubtably that his hurting their run prevention and making their pitchers ERA look worse. That’s why the Mets actually rank high in Baseball Reference Pitcher WAR, as they get credit for pitching in front of a bad defense. </p>
<p id="c6L4uj">The DBacks are coming off a series victory against the <a href="https://www.redreporter.com/">Reds</a>, but were walked off on Sunday, losing 4-3. Nonetheless the DBacks are in the midst of <em>their</em> run, going 11-2 in their last 13 to climb within 1.5 Games of the Cubs for the 2nd wild card slot.</p>
<p id="NZH8Di"><span>Ketel Marte</span> has been hot for a very long time, and is basically carrying the offense at the moment. He’ll need to continue his MVP push if the DBacks are going to have a shot at overtaking the Cubs. </p>
<p id="d9lPHz"><strong>PITCHING MATCHUPS</strong></p>
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<p id="67DHHR"><span>Merrill Kelly</span> had a 3.77 ERA and .717 OPS against on July 18th. The 30 year old rookie was looking to be a steal of a signing. He and his team then endured a 7 start stretch where he posted an 8.91 ERA and a 1.032 OPS against. However in his most recent start he had one of his best games of the year, blanking the <a href="https://www.gaslampball.com/">Padres</a> for 7 innings while giving up just 3 hits, 2 walks, and striking out 9. The Mets are a better team than the Padres however, so <span>Kelly</span> will need to post two good games in a row.</p>
<p id="9ok5t2">One could be forgiven for thinking <span>Jacob deGrom</span> was having a “down season” . He got off to a slow start this year. His ERA is almost a run higher than last year, and his record is just 8-8. Incredibly the Mets are 2-10 in his no decisions, for a 10-18 record in his appearances. However <span>deGrom</span> actually ranks 2nd in WAR (both versions), behind only <span>Max Scherzer</span>. He also ranks 2nd in strikeouts and 5th in ERA. But he’s gotten really lousy run and bullpen support. He’s also had two mediocre starts in his previous two games. DBacks fans will hope that continues to be the case for at least one more start. </p>
<p id="2CVuZP"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/PupcQ">DBacks hitters vs. deGrom</a></p>
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<p id="wHQQjz"><span>Zac Gallen</span> flirted with a no hitter in his last start, also against the Padres. He ended up going 7 innings, giving up just 1 hit, 1 walk, and struck out 8. He faced the Mets while still a Marlin back on July 13th , going 5 and giving up just 2 runs, but walking 5 in a 2-0 loss. </p>
<p id="EXIdNt"><span>Zack Wheeler</span> faced the DBacks at Chase Field May 31st, and went 7 innings giving up 4 runs in a 5-3 Mets Victory. His most recent two starts have been strong, giving up just 2 runs in 13 innings. </p>
<p id="fMJuZ6"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/UIyFY">DBacks hitters vs. Wheeler</a></p>
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<p id="w2X7cv"><span>Robbie Ray</span> exited his last start with a blister that they said wasn’t a blister but then became a blister. <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.azcentral.com%2Fstory%2Fsports%2Fmlb%2Fdiamondbacks%2F2019%2F09%2F07%2Fd-backs-still-hopeful-robbie-rays-blister-isnt-serious%2F2251977001%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.azsnakepit.com%2F2019%2F9%2F9%2F20855915%2Fseries-preview-47-dbacks-mets-ketel-marte-pete-alonso" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Story Link</a>. So we’ll see. I’m not feeling to great about this one. Blisters are a real pain, and can be tough to treat and keep from recurring. </p>
<p id="rQLn8R"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/gO9Ng">Mets hitters vs. Ray</a></p>
<p id="2MDvI8"><span>Steven Matz</span> was roughed up by the Dbacks on June 2nd, giving up 5 runs on 8 hits and 2 homers in 6 innings. But over his last 6 starts, 36 IP he has a 2.27 ERA with a .649 OPS against. He’s given up one run three times and two runs three times in that stretch. </p>
<p id="AqoR6w"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/wv6ml">DBacks hitters vs. Matz</a></p>
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<p id="dzmByz"><span>Alex Young</span> is not yet listed for this game, as it’s showing TBD on the website, but it’s his turn. He was absolutely masterful against the Reds, tossing 8 shutout innings, giving up just 2 hits while striking out a career high 12. </p>
<p id="NjKBPp"><span>Marcus Stroman</span> has not been very good since joining the Mets on July 28th. In 7 starts he has a 5.05 ERA and it could have been worse, giving up a whopping 48 hits and 7 homers in 36 innings of work. Last time out he gave up 10 hits and 5 runs to the <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a> in just 4 innings. The DBacks banged him around pretty good too back in June in Toronto when he allowed 6 runs on 7 hits and 2 homers in 5.2 IP. </p>
<p id="bvbgQI"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/kbEQc">DBacks hitters vs. Stroman</a></p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2019/9/9/20855915/series-preview-47-dbacks-mets-ketel-marte-pete-alonsoJack Sommers2019-08-26T12:17:10-04:002019-08-26T12:17:10-04:00Series Preview #43: Diamondbacks @ Giants, Tap Tap, is this thing still on ?
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<img alt="Arizona Diamondbacks v San Francisco Giants" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/PeuTk8c3Bkpeu2Frot5gFLhDFVU=/0x13:3000x2013/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/65111809/1152457410.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Two teams soldiering on in mediocrity</p> <p id="f8ZouP">The <a href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">Giants</a> came in to Chase Field on August 15th and won the first three games of the series before the DBacks finally managed to salvage game four. That series effectively ended any reasonable Wild Card hopes for Arizona while at the same time giving a flicker of life to the Giants. That flame was quickly extinguished as well however as they went to Chicago and got swept three straight from the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a>. </p>
<p id="Fe5Yv3">The Giants then went back home to the Bay Area for two big games against cross town rivals the Oakland A’s in Oakland. In front of over 53,000 fans, and a completely full stadium including Mount Davis, the Giants scored 8 runs in the 8th inning to come back and defeat the A’s 10-5 on Saturday. They followed that up with another come from behind victory yesterday, scoring two in the 7th to take the lead and holding on for a 5-4 victory in front of 47,000 fans. </p>
<p id="AhY4Rj">And all that leaves the giants at........ 65-65, 4 Games back in the Wild Card, and just a half game ahead of the 65-66 DBacks. While the atmosphere and energy in Oakland must have been amazing for those two games in front of 100,000 people, the fact is the Giants playoff odds are similar to the DBacks, on life support in the low single digits. But the players will do what professionals do, which is go play the games, and try their best to win each game, “knowing” reciting the old axiom to themselves and whoever is asking, “ it’s not over til it’s over”</p>
<h2 id="BWo2Ie"><strong>Pitching Matchups</strong></h2>
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<p id="fyuW8l"><span>Alex Young</span> will be facing the Giants for the 3rd time out of his 10 MLB starts so far. His MLB debut against them went well, his 2nd start against the Giants decidedly less so, surrendering 8 hits, a homer, and 5 runs in 5 innings to lose that series opener. However Young bounced back in his next game with a quality start in Coors field , going 6 IP and giving up just 3 runs to get the win. Still, with a 3rd look now at Young, they probably have a pretty good idea how to attack him. </p>
<p id="nDOZjS"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/0ntP1">Giants batters vs. Young H2H</a>. (Link)</p>
<p id="g6foA8"><span>Tyler Beede</span> did not pitch in the series at Chase, which is too bad for the DBacks, as things have not gone well for him lately. In his last 6 starts he has an 8.23 ERA and his team is 0-6 in those games. He faced the DBacks June 22nd and June 27, with one good and one bad start. He also had a 4 inning start against Arizona back in 2018. He throws a mid 90’s fastball, and his most frequently used secondary is his Changeup (20%) . He also throws a Curve and Slider, and per pitch values, the Curve is actually gotten him pretty good results, comparatively. </p>
<p id="QBSx97"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/6ZRXy">DBacks batters vs. Beede H2H</a>. Beede will be happy not to have to face <span>David Peralta</span> who is on the IL with shoulder inflammation. </p>
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<p id="tJCQOS">* The Starter for Tuesday’s game is still TBD, but I think it will be either <span>Mike Leake</span> or <span>Taylor Clarke</span>, so posting numbers for both</p>
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<p id="BXYPeM">EDIT: Mike Leake has been announced as starter for tomorrow. Rest of commentary still stands</p>
<p id="uX2YlT">Clarke worked 2 innings in relief on Aug 23rd, so he probably doesn’t get the start in this game. He could be used in long relief, which could very well be needed if <span>Mike Leake</span> gets the start. I guess he’s been eating innings, having gone at least 5 IP in each of his four starts with Arizona. But in his 21.1 IP so far he’s been tuned up for <strong>37 hits, including 8 HR</strong> and a <strong>.394/.422/.702, 1.124 OPS</strong> against. Basically every hitter has been<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ruthba01.shtml"> Babe Ruth</a> circa 1923 against him since coming to Arizona. Somehow his 8.02 ERA in those four games feels like “limiting the damage”</p>
<p id="RJwfey">The team may very well bypass <span>Leake</span> and Clarke altogether and give us another surprise though, so stay tuned.</p>
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<p id="wpQDcB"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/2ygml">Giants Hitters last 5 Games</a></p>
<p id="JoWXpf"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=p&team=SFG&year=2019">Giants Pitchers last 5 Games</a></p>
<p id="aBI40K"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/9VZrB">DBacks Hitters Last 5 Games</a></p>
<p id="E0js4v"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/pNSud">DBacks Pitchers Last 5 Games</a></p>
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<p id="rX7BWU"><strong>Series Prediction:</strong></p>
<p id="roI4nD">The Giants probably still feel like they are playing for something, (even though they really aren’t). Coming off the energizing series with Oakland, I think they stay on top for these two games and sweep 2-0, dropping the DBacks to 3 games below .500 for the first time in a very long time. </p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2019/8/26/20833282/series-preview-43-diamondbacks-giants-tap-tap-is-this-thing-still-onJack Sommers2019-08-15T13:01:16-04:002019-08-15T13:01:16-04:00Series Preview #40: Giants @ Diamondbacks
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<figcaption>This is what the NL Wild Card Race Looks Like</figcaption>
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<p>Two fringe wild card contenders face off for a four game series</p> <p id="EZrvm9">The <a href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">San Francisco Giants</a> come to town starting tonight for a critical four game series with playoff implications. That’s an amazing statement when you think about it, as the DBacks are just 61-60, one game ahead of the Giants who are 60-61. But such is the wacky world of the 2019 NL Wild Race where <a href="https://www.mlb.com/standings/wild-card/2019-08-15">7 teams are within 5.5 Games </a>of each other in the standings. A 3-1 series loss for either team, while not quite yet a knockout blow, would put either of them down on the canvas for a 10 count. </p>
<p id="AHFW5b">To the consternation of many, the DBacks have just a 7-6 edge in the season series. On Jun 27th the Giants started the Day 34-45, 11 Games under .500 and the baseball world expecting them to sell at the trade Deadline. However they hosted the <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> for a four game series on their turf and split the series two games a piece. They then proceeded to go 19-6, to get to two games over .500 and climb into the Wild Card race. <span>Madison Bumgarner</span> , <span>Will Smith</span> and Jeff Samardzija are all still Giants, and still pitching well. </p>
<p id="kMICeX">August has been an up and down month for the Giants so far however. They started the month 1-6, but are 4-2 in their last 6. So are they hot, cold, or just bobbing along as another mediocre team clinging to fading Wild Card Game hopes ? </p>
<p id="pfzjEj">Their offense has just an 86 OPS+ for the year, but has been much better since July. Over the <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/Idi4c">last 14 days splits </a>their hottest hitters have been <span>Kevin Pillar</span>, <span>Mike Yastrzemski</span>, <span>Austin Slater</span>, and <span>Pablo Sandoval</span>. <strong>(EDIT</strong>: Panda is on the IL as of the 14th, so not playing this series)</p>
<p id="Z0ldzV">The bullpen has been a strength for the Giants this year as they lead the NL in both Bullpen ERA (3.76) and Bullpen FIP (3.97). The DBacks rank 5th in Bullpen ERA (4.38) and 6th in Bullpen FIP (4.36). </p>
<p id="GcYnl3">However for the month of August, and despite yesterday’s game in Colorado, the Dbacks actually have the better bullpen numbers for the month, 3.33 ERA vs. 3.83 for the Giants. <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=43,194&splitArrPitch=&position=P&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=team&statgroup=1&startDate=2019-08-01&endDate=2019-11-01&players=&filter=&sort=4,-1">Splits Here</a> They may need a fresh arm for this series though, as the pen was taxed in the <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/">Rockies</a> series, working 15 innings in the three games. Torey tried to spread it around as evenly as possible however, as <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=43,179&splitArrPitch=&position=P&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=player&statgroup=1&startDate=2019-08-12&endDate=2019-11-01&players=&filter=&sort=3,1">can be seen here</a></p>
<p id="hzBr1E">The Diamondbacks for their part have won 3 of their last 4 series, and are 7-5 since since the trade deadline. Despite 4 errors in yesterday’s series finale loss to the Rockies, the DBacks still rank 2nd in the NL in Fielding % and also 2nd in Defensive Runs Saved. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/KrKyq">Report Link</a> However the team’s chances were potentially dealt a blow when starter <span>Robbie Ray</span> had to leave yesterday’s game after just two innings with back spasms. He will get an MRI today and manager Torey Lovullo is hopeful he will not miss too much time. We’ll look to update his status further this evening. </p>
<p id="D6Zb5S">The timing for an injury to one of your top starters can never be good, but especially troublesome now. Lately the Diamondbacks starters have been struggling as a group with a number of short outings from multiple starters. </p>
<p id="s106CN">At the plate <span>Ketel Marte</span> continues to be the team’s best hitter and a peripheral MVP candidate. Yesterday’s 4 hit game drove his OPS+ up to 140 on the year. <span>Nick Ahmed</span> is coming off a great series in Colorado and has been the top hitter by OPS over the last 14 days. <span>Eduardo Escobar</span> continues to slump however and his Batting avg is down to .273 and OPS+ down to 116. The RBI total is nice and all, and he does have 5 HR for the month so far, but he needs to start hitting and getting on base again if the Diamondbacks are to remain in this Wild Card race. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats_team.cgi?full=1&params=total%7CLast%2014%20days%7CARI%7C2019%7Cbat%7CAB%7C">Last 14 Days Batting Splits</a></p>
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<p id="o9L20t"><strong>Starting Pitching Matchups</strong></p>
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<p id="Wae7jZ"><span>Dereck Rodriguez</span> is having a true Sophomore slump. After posting a 6-4 Record and 2.81 ERA in his rookie season last year, he started this year in the Giants rotation. However he was demoted to the bullpen after 8 starts and a 5+ ERA. He worked out of the pen for a month, and has been optioned four times this year. His velocity has been down a tick and his HR/FB rate has more than doubled and his BABIP has risen 30 points. He was good in his last minor league start however, so we’ll see. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/l8Bv8">DBacks Hitters vs. Rodriguez H2H</a></p>
<p id="AVANj0"><span>Alex Young</span> had a little of the rookie shine knocked off him in his last outing against the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> in LA. He worked just 3.1 IP, and gave up 4 runs on 5 hits 3 Walks, 2 K’s, and a HR. He and the team will hope for a rebound and perhaps a repeat of his MLB debut back on June 27th when he held the Giants to 1 run in 5 innings. Keep an eye on his peripherals and BABIP though. The .198 BABIP is not sustainable, so he’ll need to K a few more and walk a few less to maintain a sub 4.00 ERA going forward. </p>
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<p id="ENDGZq">In year 4 of a 5 year, $90M deal, <span>Jeff Samardzija</span> is having his best year as a Giant in terms of ERA . However he may have been a bit hit lucky this year, as Peripherals and BABIP suggest. He’s been hot lately though. In his last 4 GS, 24 IP he’s allowed just 3 Earned Runs and a .148 B.A. against. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/9L2A6">DBacks hitters vs. Samardzija H2H</a></p>
<p id="l61rWs"><span>Mike Leake</span> has allowed 31 HR on the year, the most in the majors. Never a big strikeout guy, he depends on not walking batters, keeping the ball down and inducing groundballs and double plays. But his GB% is down to 47%, (From 53% a couple years ago) and his HR/FB rate has zoomed to over 19% after being around 13% most of his career. He’s been steadily losing velocity on his Fastball, from 93 in 2015 all the way down to 89 this year. And that fastball has been getting absolutely hammered. There may not be an easy fix here. Fingers crossed the Dbacks coaching staff and <span>Dan Haren</span> can help him come up with something to turn it around. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/RGZBm">Giants hitters H2H against Leake</a></p>
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<p id="pZvu7b">No starter listed for the Giants at the moment. I will update the preview when I have it.</p>
<p id="TgpyCK"><span>Merrill Kelly</span> is in a slump, no two ways about it. After being a pretty dependable innings eater through the first half of the season, over his last 4 starts he’s managed just 19 innings, giving up a whopping 24 runs on <strong>32 hits, including 8 home runs</strong>. He’s only walked 5 batters, but his command in the strike zone has completely deserted him. He’s been leaving pitches over the heart of the plate and he just doesn’t have the stuff to get away with that. Without fine command on the edges <span>Merrill Kelly</span> is a Pinata. Hopefully he finds that command he had earlier again, soon. </p>
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<p id="mhJdLa"><span>Madison Bumgarner</span> continues to be one of the best starters in the game. While his career ERA+ of 122 is not as eye popping as some others, combined with his durability that still makes him an “Ace”. He goes deep in games, throws strikes, and when he is on, will dominate, as the Diamondbacks experienced June 30th when he shut them down to the tune of 1 run on 4 hits, 0 walks and 9 K’s in 7 innings. His big game ability and dominance when it counts the most still appear to be intact, as does his stuff. His velocity and movement seem to be about the same as it was before he had the recent spate of injuries the previous few years. Tough customer any way you slice it, and he still is a threat at the plate too, despite his batting numbers being down a bit this year. (just 1 HR)</p>
<p id="zyfwN6">Rookie Zac Gallen only went 4 IP in his 2nd start for the Diamondbacks, but it was in Coors field. He gave up 9 hits, but only walked 1, and struck out 3. He limited the damage in a game the team won 9-3. He’ll be asked to do more than that on Sunday however, especially with the potential for a spot starter filling in for <span>Robbie Ray</span> on Monday against the Rockies, the DBacks can ill afford a short outing the day before. </p>
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<p id="a5FQw8">A series victory would be great here, but the odds favor a 2-2 split for two fairly even teams. </p>
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https://www.azsnakepit.com/2019/8/15/20807086/series-preview-40-giants-diamondbacksJack Sommers2019-08-02T17:00:00-04:002019-08-02T17:00:00-04:00Series Preview # 36: Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
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<figcaption>Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Today is the first day of the rest of your season</p> <p id="Tb8rKU">With the cloud of the trade deadline finally behind them, the <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> can get back to the business of trying to claim a Wild Card spot. The Manager and some of the players have openly admitted that the “buy/sell” scenarios being played out in everyone’s minds and in the media weighed on them. They are human. It’s only natural. They’ve been playing tight as a result, making mistakes in the field and on the mound, and failing to hit in the most critical moments. </p>
<p id="9OjacP">But it’s over now. With one big exception, the Major League team is intact and a couple of pieces have been added. While the DBacks have not done well in these situations against head to head Wild Card rivals over the past month or so, they couldn’t ask for a better opportunity to right their ship and get back in the race with this home stand against Washington and then Philadelphia. </p>
<p id="4oo6GX">As for us fans, without worry about the team making foolish buy moves to mortgage the future, I think we can all settle in together and root for the team to succeed. They have nothing to lose by winning. Nor do we. So lets Go !</p>
<p id="zNCo2y"><strong>Standings as of this morning</strong></p>
<p id="kwAq8u">The <a href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/">Nationals</a> were one of the hottest teams in baseball, but have lost five of their last seven and are now in a two way tie with the <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a> in 2nd place in the NL East, 7 GB of Atlanta. They are in a three way tie for the Wild Card with the Phillies and the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a>.</p>
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<p id="KjYqJd"><strong>Comparing Records:</strong></p>
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<p id="T0E0PE">When you look at the above table it doesn’t seem to make sense at first glance. Why do the Nationals have a better record than the DBacks ? The run differential is almost the same, with an edge to Arizona. We often look at 1 run game records, but I added the record for Margin of 2-4 runs, and also blowouts. The DBacks are 29-43 when the margin is less than 5 runs, while the Nationals are 44-36. Simply put, they are playing better in closer games. The Dbacks have run up their run differential and overall W-L record in blowout games.</p>
<p id="pbWeVH">The DBacks have also played far more games against teams with over .500 record and the Nationals have run up their record against sub .500 teams. They are doing a better job of taking care of business when they are “supposed to win”.</p>
<p id="H4cjOn"><strong>Comparing Offense:</strong></p>
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<p id="h54vHO">Overall, these have been two pretty evenly matched teams on offense, and both offenses are above league average. The runs, the rate or average stats, are all pretty close. Where they diverge is WHEN they hit. The leverage stats correlate to the W-L record breakdowns by margin in the first chart. </p>
<p id="XGAibQ">As can be seen on the <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/WSN/2019.shtml">Nationals Baseball Reference Page</a> their biggest hitting stars have of course been <span>Anthony Rendon</span> (154 OPS+) and second year player <span>Juan Soto</span> (134 OPS+). <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/uDlJp">DBack Killer Howie Kendrick </a> (.344/.401/.497 lifetime vs. AZ) continues to be a top flight hitter as well with a .316 BA and a 125 OPS+ in a part time role. Those three have also been their <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats_team.cgi?full=1&params=total%7CLast%207%20days%7CWSN%7C2019%7Cbat%7CAB%7C">hottest hitters of late </a></p>
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<p id="P9wGpw"><strong>Team Defense</strong></p>
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<p id="fgfGLd">A team strength for the DBacks for the last several years. This obviously helps keep pitching staff runs allowed and ERA down. This is why, despite having similar team ERA, the Nationals have the best pitcher WAR in the NL while DBacks are middle of the pack. When you strip out defense altogether (<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=nl&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=18,d">Fangraphs WAR</a>), or adjust for Defense (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/JMEC4">Baseball Reference WAR</a>), the DBacks pitchers take a hit in those metrics while the Nationals Pitchers get big bumps. Imagine if the Nationals pitchers played in front of the Diamondbacks defense ? </p>
<p id="0zUxtg"><strong>Bullpen Pitching:</strong></p>
<p id="Hk5Opt">At 5.93, the Nationals have the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=nl&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=15,a">worst Bullpen ERA in the NL</a>, (which tells you how good their starting pitching has been). They’ve made some changes, and added <span>Fernando Rodney</span>, who <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/2019/8/2/20730347/closers-greg-holland-diamondbacks">Jim has somehow made us miss.</a> ;) But since July 12, their bullpen ERA is still 5.32. They have a pretty good closer in <span>Sean Doolittle</span> though, 3.00 ERA, 23 saves, 4 blown. <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/nationals">Fangraphs Depth Chart Page</a></p>
<p id="Bwwlgi">We’ve talked about the DBacks bullpen a lot, but if you need a refresher, go to <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=15&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=18,d">THIS PAGE</a></p>
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<p id="4SWRhD"><strong>Starting Pitcher Matchups:</strong></p>
<p id="E1iJxA"><span>Max Scherzer</span> is on the DL, so we won’t see him this series. Note article EDITED as pitching matchups info changed from the morning version on the team website. Ray and Young switched and Clarke in place of Kelly on Sunday</p>
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<p id="C67lx9"><span>Joe Ross</span> had been working out of the bullpen all year. He made a start on July 21st in a loss to Atlanta. Last time out he pitched behind the opener, working 4.2 IP , giving up 7 runs, 6 earned. Tonight he will get the start again. He’s stretched out enough to go 5 or 6 IP, but effectiveness obviously has been an issue. He throws both his 4 Seamer and Sinker about 94 MPH. He also throws a 88 MPH slider. But his spin rates are all low and there must not be much movement. <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/joe-ross-605452?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb">Baseball Savant</a></p>
<p id="Rv3WgQ"><span>Alex Young</span> will hope to continue his string of good starts. He draws a much easier matchup than the initial Pitching Matchups indicated. This is an opportunity for him to improve his record. Fingers crossed the peripherals and FIP move down towards ERA instead of the other way around. </p>
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<p id="SqEfPg"><span>Stephen Strasburg</span> has to be one of the the hottest pitchers in baseball. He’s won 7 straight starts, and thrown 44.2 Innings with a 2.22 ERA and allowing just 1 HR during that stretch. He doesn’t throw quite as hard as he used to, averaging just under 94 MPH, but his curve has been devastating and he uses it a lot. <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/stephen-strasburg-544931?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb">BASEBALL SAVANT</a>. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/y0Jzj">H2H with DBacks Hitters</a></p>
<p id="2EUgHV"><span>Robbie Ray</span> will need to dial it in from the beginning in his role as the team’s “#1 Starter”. Like it or not, he is the “Ace” now. It may seem unfair to put that kind of onus on him at this stage of his career. But it’s not just the fans that are wanting <span>Ray</span> to become a top of the rotation starter. Inside that clubhouse, his teammates are looking for him to make the next step. Said Archie Bradley after the game on Wednesday</p>
<p id="mUbJIE"><em>“We have a spot to fill in the rotation and now a lot of pressure is put on our other guys.......</em><em><strong>Robbie has to step up and be our guy now</strong></em><em>”</em></p>
<p id="HsoHmq">That’s how players view things. They need and expect certain guys to be leaders, by example, deed, and word. Ready or not, it’s Robbie’s turn. So this needs to be his coming out party and he needs to match or be better than Strasburg. He needs to live up to the “Big Game Bob” moniker and actually BE an Ace. </p>
<p id="fOEhE2"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/VDGnO">H2H against Nationals Hitters</a></p>
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<p id="oZB7BD">The Nationals have to be happy with their signing of <span>Patrick Corbin</span> so far. Other than a little bit bumpy June, he has been good or excellent the rest of the time, including 6 starts with a 1.95 ERA in July. We know him well of course. He still uses his slider almost 40% of the time and it may be the best in baseball. Will be interesting to see if DBacks hitters will be able to pick it up and lay off after watching it for so many years.</p>
<p id="gkYEtE">Taylor Clarke was just announced as the Sunday starter. Clarke has turned in two good outings in a row, including a solid performance in Yankee Stadium. For the time being the DBacks are going with a 6 man rotation, at least this turn through the order. It would seem that all Clarke will need to continue to pitch as well as his two most recent starts to hold down a spot deep into August however. </p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2019/8/2/20751586/series-preview-36-washington-nationals-at-arizona-diamondbacks-robbie-rayJack Sommers2019-06-24T17:00:00-04:002019-06-24T17:00:00-04:00Series Preview #26: Dodgers at Diamondbacks
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<figcaption>Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The LA Dodgers Steamroll Into Phoenix on a Wave of Youth</p> <p id="DbWQkf">The <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> are on a roll again, but really it’s been a season long roll. They come to town on a six game win streak, and having won 8 of their last 10. They’re 22-8 over their last 30, and now stand at 54-25, for an MLB best .684 W%. 13 games clear of the 2nd place <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/">Rockies</a> in the NL West, they won’t be caught for the division title this year, that is almost a certainty. </p>
<p id="u1rHvx">As you might have heard, they are coming off three straight historic walk off victories. Historic because they won each with a walkoff homer by a rookie. Matt Beatty turned the trick Friday night. Saturday was <span>Alex Verdugo</span>’s turn. And then <span>Matt Beaty</span>, who was just called up late Saturday night, hit a pinch hit walk off Sunday. That’s the first time that has ever happened in major league history. </p>
<p id="QS9Rxy">This got me thinking about how many impact young players the Dodgers system has produced over the last 5 years. This is the thing that always concerns me the most when it comes to evaluating the <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> long term prospects within the division. Of course LA is a much bigger market, the Dodgers have a longer history, much larger attendance, revenues, and franchise values. They are the behemoth of the National League with the most financial resources to maintain success. The only way for the DBacks to hope to compete with them is to draft and develop better. Unfortunately this is an area where the Dodgers have kicked the DBacks to the curb as well. And this despite vastly inferior draft pick position compared to Arizona. Looking at the period between 2010-2015</p>
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<p id="rePMGb">As has been well documented, the DBacks squandered many of their draft picks and minor league assets, and failed to develop enough of the ones they kept to allow them to keep pace with the Dodgers. And as a result of these draft and develop failures on the part of the DBacks, AND the success the Dodgers have had, a wide gap has opened up over the last 3+ years in performance impact from rookies arriving on the scene. This is especially apparent on the position player side, where not only have the Dodgers actually allocated more playing time to rookies, but have received 9 times the production in terms of WAR.</p>
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<p id="qMlg8S">The Dodgers have been headlined by players such as <span>Corey Seager</span>, <span>Cody Bellinger</span>, <span>Joc Pederson</span> and <span>Alex Verdugo</span>. The DBacks list is somewhat less impressive with <span>Nick Ahmed</span>, <span>Jake Lamb</span> and <span>Christian Walker</span> at the top of the tables. </p>
<p id="jZu7P6"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/hyEOM">Dodgers Original Table</a></p>
<p id="BQ89ja"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/NMaF5">DBacks Original Table</a></p>
<p id="F49zOC">On the pitching side, the total numbers appear to slightly favor the Diamondbacks, however the big counterpoint to that is one name: <span>Walker</span> <span>Buehler</span></p>
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<p id="6levex"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/oFVN8">Dodgers Pitching Table</a></p>
<p id="crRxX2"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/mnfLu">DBacks Pitching Table</a></p>
<p id="FKQcEg">One thing that has emerged fairly clearly is the Dodgers have opted to focus player development on position players, and utilized the monetary advantage to create their pitching depth over the years. The DBacks in recent years have tried to develop their young pitching, or trade for younger pitching, because it’s cheaper, but keep getting bit by the injury bug. </p>
<p id="gCuyc1">So this is the challenge faced by Mike Hazen and the entire Diamondbacks baseball operations, scouting and player development team. The Dodgers have just been better at this than the DBacks. Whether or not the Dbacks system can become as effective as the Dodgers, let alone surpass them, remains to be seen. The early (first 3 years ) results are quite mixed. But they’ll have to if they can ever hope to contend with the Dodgers for the division title, as the monetary advantage the Dodgers enjoy is never going away.</p>
<p id="o4BGq0"></p>
<p id="PvNVOw">SERIES PITCHING MATCHUPS</p>
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<p id="mRtxIL">The numbers above are remarkably similar, and that’s not all the similarity there is these days. <span>Clayton Kershaw</span>’s 4 Seam Fastball averages just 90 MPH now, barely harder than <span>Zack Greinke</span>’s 89.5 MPH avg on his 4 Seamer. But <span>Kershaw</span> still has that excellent command, a great slider and curveball, and while this version is not going to dominate in the same fashion as the <span>Kershaw</span> of 3-4 years ago, if his back holds up he’ll be putting up these kinds of numbers for at least a few more years. </p>
<p id="b8v8os">Tuesday and Wednesday starters for the Dodgers are showing as TBD on MLB website as of this writing. <span>Rich Hill</span> has been placed on the IL with a Flexor Strain. So they are sorting things out. I will update this preview tonight when there is more information</p>
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<p id="WvIJAn">Ross Stripling made 6 pretty effective starts to open the season for the Dodgers posting a 2.65 ERA in 27 IP. But was moved to the bullpen when the frontline starters returned, and actually has not been as effective in the pen, posting a 4.02 ERA in 15.2 relief innings. He threw 45 pitches on June 20th, which is the most he’s thrown since his last start April 25th. So he’s not really stretched out. I’d be surprised if he got much beyond 60 pitches today. A patient approach would probably be good for the DBacks today. Stripling throws four pitches, primarily, 4 seam, Curve, Slider, and Change. His Curve and Changeup are his best pitches. If he is getting ahead in the count early and forces the Dbacks to offer at those off speed offerings, it could be a tough day. DBacks should wait him out though, and try to get in Dodgers lackluster bullpen early. </p>
<p id="vWpeD2"><span>Robbie Ray</span> will go for the DBacks in Tuesday’s game. (6:40 PM) He is 5-3, with a 3.87 ERA . He ranks 5th in the NL in strikeouts with 115, but he also ranks 4th in the NL in Walks with 43. The last time Robbie faced the Dodgers on June 3rd he was a tough luck loser, as he went 7 IP, allowing just 3 runs, walking 1 and striking out 9 in a 4-3 DBacks loss. </p>
<p id="eXJZ5n"><span>Taylor Clarke</span> (1-3, 6.48 ERA) will go for the DBacks on Wednesday’s day game: (12:40 P.M. Start) Clarke has been getting crushed and knocked out of the box early. In his last 5 starts he’s only gone 5 innings once, and totaled just 18 innings in that span. He’s posted a 10 ERA and given up 7 homers among his 28 hits over these 18 innings. Were it not for the fact that the Dbacks <strong>literally</strong> have nobody else to pitch, he would have been removed from the rotation and optioned back out. </p>
<p id="SZXHCT">Resource Pages:</p>
<p id="ZloeQp"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAD/2019.shtml">Dodgers Baseball Reference</a></p>
<p id="oDP2Vi"><a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/dodgers">Dodgers Fangraphs and Depth Chart</a></p>
<p id="2FKxpY"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/2019.shtml">DBacks Baseball Reference</a></p>
<p id="RqikXs"><a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/diamondbacks">DBacks Fangraphs and Depth Chart</a></p>
<p id="NvnAm5"></p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2019/6/24/18715729/series-preview-26-dodgers-at-diamondbacks-clayton-kershaw-zack-greinkeJack Sommers2019-06-21T17:00:00-04:002019-06-21T17:00:00-04:00Series Preview #25: GIANTS @ DIAMONDBACKS
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<img alt="MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/8gkXI9bAkPxHUotkT-UkPGqlejY=/0x31:3600x2431/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/64061248/usa_today_12827829.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is a must win series for the Dbacks and Manager Torey Lovullo</p> <p id="5U967R">As we’ve heard, General Manager Mike Hazen has made it abundantly clear that how the team performs in this stretch against the NL West will determine what type of actions he takes at the trade deadline. You can listen to his comments <a href="https://arizonasports.com/category/podcast_player/?a=361363&sid=1004&n=Doug+%26amp%3B+Wolf">HERE</a> . I can’t over emphasize how important Hazen’s comments are to understanding the future of this team. He is never this straightforward or blunt in the media. So if you haven’t had a chance yet, have a listen. It’s not only about the trade deadline comments. You can hear the frustration and almost anger in his voice in the lead up to that bombshell. </p>
<p id="3H1Qci">The 18 game run up to the All Star Break, (which begins July 8th) could not have gotten off to a worse start, with the team being swept by the <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/">Colorado Rockies</a> in the first three games of this nine game home stand. Failure to take at least two out of three from the struggling and pitching challenged <a href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">San Francisco Giants</a> would probably be a signal to Hazen that he doesn’t need to wait until the All Star Break to start making phone calls. </p>
<p id="iRFEnB">The Giants are having a bad season. They are currently 31-42, in last place, 4.5 games back of the 4th place DBacks and 18.5 G Back of the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a>. They rank dead last in the NL in team OPS+, and 13th in team ERA+ . Their biggest star, <span>Buster Posey</span>, who had surgery on his hip last year in August, is having a dreadful, injury marred season again. Recently activated from the IL after suffering a hamstring strain, he is 4 for 23 since returning, dropping his season batting line .246/.307/.383, .690 OPS 84 OPS+. Over the last two seasons he has 8 Homeruns in 640 PA.</p>
<p id="qg7wYp"><span>Brandon Belt</span> (112 OPS+) and <span>Pablo Sandoval</span> (129 OPS+) have been virtually the only offensive bright spots, and in <span>Belt</span>’s case it’s mostly due to a high walk total as he’s getting pitched around. His .233/.361/.434 triple slash with 9 HR constitutes one of the few guys in the lineup that can hurt you. <span>Sandoval</span> of course has continued his long, annoying habit of being a DBacks Killer. He is 6 for 12 with 2 HR and a 1.665 OPS against the Snakes this year. He’s always loved hitting in Chase field, slashing .335/.396/.510 .907 OPS in 265 Career PA. If somebody could fire up the Lundberg meme, reminding him that we have a humidor and slow turf to suppress his numbers here, that would be great. </p>
<p id="wsPUZS">Despite all that, they did manage series wins against the <a href="https://www.gaslampball.com/">Padres</a> and the <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Brewers</a> recently, before losing 3 of 4 to the Dodgers this week. They narrowly missed a series split, as the last game included a <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/giants-buster-posey-says-mlb-replay-officials-have-no-accountability-following-controversial-call-against-dodgers/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter">controversial replay review</a> that went against them to cost a victory. In fact, one would be hard pressed to say they have been any worse than the Dbacks over the last 30 games:</p>
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<p id="iEPzuQ"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SFG/2019.shtml">Giants Baseball Reference Page</a></p>
<p id="o0f3Hh"><a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/giants">Giants Fangraphs Page w/ Depth Chart</a></p>
<p id="amUhsg">During their current 4 game losing streak, the DBacks have hit .262/.343./.366, .709 OPS but scored just 14 runs. The bugaboo of course has been hitting w/RISP, as they are just 7 for 42, .167 in those situations during this stretch. And during the Rockies series they were just 4 for 34, .118 wRISP. These things come in waves. In fact for the entire season the DBacks .267 BA W/RISP ranks 5th in the NL, and 8th in MLB. But the current situational slump could not have come at a worse time, at home, vs Divisional rivals. They’ll need to get back to cashing in some of those opportunities, and facing the Giants pitching staff should present plenty of opportunities. </p>
<p id="M3l5Qq">Hot hitters for the DBacks include <span>Ketel Marte</span> , who is coming off a 4 hit game, albeit with some bloopers, and 4 straight game of 3 hits or more. Ketel is making a big push for the All Star Game. The Primary election ends at 4 P.M. today, should you wish to support him. <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/four-close-all-star-races-ahead-of-final-round">VOTE HERE.</a> </p>
<p id="XH9Sx6"><span>Christian Walker</span> has also been pretty hot lately. On the flip side, <span>Eduardo Escobar</span> has been ice cold of late, and <span>Carson Kelly</span> and <span>Jarrod Dyson</span> have been struggling the last several games as well.</p>
<p id="qw3Z8o"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/LO1Au">DBacks last 5 games batting splits</a> </p>
<p id="13AGWO"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/2019.shtml">DBacks Baseball Reference Page</a></p>
<p id="YK7kiv"><a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/diamondbacks">DBacks Fangraphs Page</a></p>
<h2 id="LU1KoS"><strong>PITCHING MATCHUPS:</strong></h2>
<p id="aC6Uqv">The Dbacks will face a trio of righty starters and will not see <span>Madison Bumgarner</span> in this series. </p>
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<p id="UFhZvn"><span>Jeff Samardzija</span> signed a 5 year, $90M contract with the Giants prior to the 2016 season. This deal has not worked out too well for the Giants. Since then he’s gone 25-37, with a 4.28 ERA, 96 ERA+, and just 4.8 WAR. With 1.5 years and approximately 30M still to go on his contract, his name has been brought up in trade deadline rumors. With the exception of last year he’s always been a reliable innings eater. But his results have never seemed to match his stuff, as his FIP has been consistently better than his ERA through most of his career, with the notable exception of 2019, as you can see above. His avg FB velocity is down to 91.7 MPH, from the days when he averaged 94+. He no longer induces a high groundball percentage either. He’s been hit hard 3 of his last 4 starts. However he does have somewhat favorable matchup splits with the Dbacks hitters he’ll likely face. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/mmUKw">Splits HERE</a></p>
<p id="5i1Hmn"><span>Taylor Clarke</span> has not pitched terribly in two of his last three games, but he’ll have to find a way to get off to a better start and not put his team in the hole early. He’s had trouble with the long ball lately, giving up 2 of them in each of his last two starts. He’ll hope to recreate one of his season highlights to date, when he pitched into the 7th inning and earned a victory against these very same Giants in <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN201905250.shtml">this game on May 25th</a>. My hope is that with the team having no choice but to keep him in the rotation, it will inspire him to be aggressive, throw strikes, attack the zone, and don’t nibble. If this is a must win series, this is probably a must win game, because........</p>
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<p id="E41cVC">**Note the late Saturday start time for this game</p>
<p id="ccurDF"><span>Tyler Beede</span> was a first round draft pick for the Giants out of Vanderbilt back in 2014. While he hasn’t yet established himself as a major league starter, he had a very good outing vs. the Dodgers in his last start, allowing just 1 run in 6 innings to pick up his first career win. <span>Beede</span> throws a Four Seam, Change up and Curve. His four seamer is averaging just a hair under 95 MPH, and has a pretty good spin rate of 2318. But he must not command it well, as it’s been hit very hard. He has over 10 MPH separation between his FB and Change, and his batting against numbers on his off speed pitches are excellent. </p>
<p id="9spwPq">Which brings us to yet another “Bullpen Game” for the <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a>. While nothing has been officially announced, and it doesn’t really matter who “starts”. Neither Archie Bradley or Zack <span>Godley</span> has pitched since the debacle in Washington where they combined to give up 10 runs in 6 innings. Whatever order they are run out in, both of them will pitch in this game. Diamondback fans can only hope for better results. Bradley in particular has been a mystery. While his peripherals are pretty good, he has allowed a .<strong>406 BABIP against </strong>in<strong> </strong>2019. A small percentage of that may be bad luck, however don’t look for me to hand wave this away as a luck issue. His hard hit percentage is over 44% and the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=30&type=2&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=20,d">5th highest in MLB</a> while his soft hit percentage is just 13.3%, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=30&type=2&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=18,a">7th worst in MLB</a> (among relievers with at least 30 IP.) Whether it’s because his pitches are too straight, or he’s tipping them, or putting them in bad locations, (most likely some combination of all three), Archie has struggled for a year now. Over his last 365 days, one full calendar year, in 69 IP he has a 5.09 ERA and a 1.551 FIP and .278 BA against. </p>
<p id="98IQS9">As for <span>Zack Godley</span>, he continues to be plagued by inconsistent command and the long ball, (11 allowed in 59 IP). His numbers are somewhat better in relief, but he still has a 4.81 ERA in 24 relief innings and has allowing 6 of those 11 homers out of the bullpen. It’s been very much 1 step forward and 2 long strides backwards for <span>Godley</span> this year. </p>
<p id="0ITedb">Considering that <span>Yoan Lopez</span> and <span>Andrew Chafin</span> each worked the last two games in a row, it’s likely Torey brings in <span>T.J. McFarland</span> and his 5.64 ERA/4.64 FIP at some point to face a left hand dominant Giants lineup. The Dbacks will need immediate improvement from <strong>all three</strong> of these pitchers to have a chance in this game. </p>
<p id="LtKSY8"></p>
<p id="4QWScS"><strong>EDIT:</strong></p>
<p id="R3qDDb"><strong>Torey Lovullo just announced that Zack Godley would get the start and go as long as he can. He pointed out that Godley threw over 70 pitches last time out and is stretched out. </strong></p>
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<p id="GwTWnF"><span>Shaun Anderson</span> was a 3rd round pick by the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Boston Red Sox</a> in 2016 and was traded to the Giants just a little over a year later for <span>Eduardo Nunez</span>. Per <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/shaun-anderson-641312?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb">Baseball Savant,</a> </p>
<h3 id="uxb9Yv">“Anderson relies on 5 pitches. Four Seamer (40%), Slider (28%), Sinker (18.2%), Changeup (10.2%), Curve (3.7%)”</h3>
<p id="cN9Bhi">His fastball sits in the low 90’s and <strong>his slider has elite spin rate and pitch movement.</strong> Looking at <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/a6Sui">his game logs </a> he’s been very consistent in his 7 starts so far, never going less than 5 IP, and allowing 3 runs or less in 6 of his 7 starts. In the lone start he failed to allow less than 3, he allowed 4. </p>
<p id="PkbrWV">Merrill <span>Kelly</span> is coming off one of his worst stats of the year, allowing 6 runs to the Rockies on June 18th. This was on the heels of a very dominant three start stretch. While <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/HvaXi">Kelly’s game log</a> may look a little less consistent than Anderson’s, he’s gotten into or beyond the 7th inning in 7 of his 15 starts, and failed to complete 5 IP in only 3 of them. <span>Kelly</span> has 7 quality starts on the year, (43%) behind <span>Zack Greinke</span> who has 13 QS. <span>Luke Weaver</span> has 6 QS in 11 Starts (55%). But he’s on the IL with no date set to even resume throwing. So I think it’s fair to say <span>Kelly</span> is now the DBacks #2 starter. He’ll need a lock down game on Sunday. It’s hard to imagine the Dbacks winning the series without a strong outing from him.</p>
<p id="cqB7oH"></p>
<p id="zSuWUt">The DBacks backs are against the wall. They have to know it. The players and Torey Lovullo and his coaches are all well aware of Mike Hazen’s comments. Despite what happened against the Rockies, I think they’ll respond and win 2 out of 3 to take the series and keep their hopes alive. </p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2019/6/21/18700979/series-preview-25-giants-diamondbacks-mike-hazen-torey-lovulloJack Sommers2019-06-10T15:00:00-04:002019-06-10T15:00:00-04:00Series Preview #22: Diamondbacks @ Phillies
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<img alt="MLB: Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/u2pZ1pyx00d0OA7KjxQjydOyb68=/0x0:3600x2400/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/63981408/usa_today_12827987.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>DBacks Phace the Phirst Place Phillies for a Three Game Set</p> <h2 id="YAQI5r">
<strong>Weather Alert</strong>: It’s storming in Philadelphia and expected to be heavy rain from 4 PM Eastern Time onwards. See hourly forecast <a href="https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/deb9ecec6c69c2bf98a8c039a2d544ce6efcf8b453f8fcc73a8a06b018b7eb3f">HERE </a>. Delays or cancellation possible.</h2>
<p id="wUrEJu"></p>
<h2 id="XJ5lO0"></h2>
<h2 id="a5DDQh"><strong>PHILLIES 37-28, +24 Run Differential</strong></h2>
<p id="N376sP">The <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a> stand alone in first place atop the NL East, one game clear of the <a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Atlanta Braves</a>. This may be somewhat surprising considering that:</p>
<ul>
<li id="zTft4W"> <span>Bryce Harper</span> is having a sub par season <a href="https://www.deseretnews.com/article/900069023/philadelphia-phillies-bryce-harper-jake-arrieta-toxic-workplace.html">marred by occasional tantrums</a>
</li>
<li id="CkmtOW"> Their bullpen has been decimated by injury </li>
<li id="qAGx3h">Stalwart starters <span>Aaron Nola</span> and Jake Arrieta are not having great seasons </li>
<li id="aZZIjf">They’ve lost <span>Andrew McCutchen</span> for the year to a torn ACL. </li>
</ul>
<p id="3dTDY6">Still, the Phillies have a good roster. They are getting strong contributions from off season acquisitions <span>J.T. Realmuto</span> (104 OPS+, 2.1 WAR) and <span>Jean Segura</span> (107 OPS+, 1.4 WAR) . <span>Rhys Hoskins</span> continues to be a steady power source, leading the team with a 131 OPS+ and 13 HR. </p>
<p id="f2n1Mb">Recently acquired slugger <span>Jay Bruce</span> has come in red hot for the Phils, going 8 for 21 with 4 HR and 11 RBI in his first 6 games, more than filling the gap left by <span>McCutchen</span>’s injury. Did you know <span>Bruce</span> has 303 career homers and already has 18 this year ?</p>
<p id="BvaUWS">Off the bench <span>Scott Kingery</span> is rocking a .310 Batting Avg with 14 extra base hits in just 100 At bats. </p>
<p id="W3lDuH">They are 31-17 against Right Handed Starting Pitching, and 22-12 at home. However their team OPS is actually lower against RHP than LHP, (.726 vs. .767).</p>
<p id="eqLO7p">Their biggest issue at the moment is probably their bullpen. Their <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/NdNzi">INJURED LIST</a> includes off season signing <span>David Robertson</span> who has only given them 6+ ineffective innings this year. Fireballing Seranthony Dominguez is out indefinitely with an elbow injury. <span>Pat Neshek</span> is on the shelf, as is lefty <span>Adam Morgan</span>. </p>
<p id="ggJH1z">Closer Hector Neris is having a big bounce back year, (1.95 ERA, 13 Saves). But getting the ball to him may be an issue. For the month of June the Phillies have a 5.40 Bullpen ERA and .403 wOBA against. </p>
<p id="5SQpFz">Suggested Links:</p>
<p id="HdmbSF"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PHI/2019.shtml">Phillies Baseball Reference Page</a></p>
<p id="TVDPv3"><a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/phillies">Phillies Fangraphs Page</a></p>
<p id="BibSWp"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/previews/2019/PHI201906100.shtml">Baseball Reference Series Preview</a></p>
<p id="KfbF26"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats_team.cgi?full=1&params=total%7CLast%207%20days%7CPHI%7C2019%7Cbat%7CAB%7C">Phillies last 7 days batting</a></p>
<p id="YSJesI">I usually like to do head to head stat tables. But check out the one I found <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/2019/4/19/18296308/phillies-record-standings-upcoming-schedule">HERE</a> on our sister site the Good Phite. It blows mine away. Click through, it’s pretty cool, (and encouraging)</p>
<h2 id="QeohcR"><strong>DIAMONDBACKS, 34-32, +56 Run Differential</strong></h2>
<p id="TLmVI7">The Dbacks are coming off a series sweep of the <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Toronto Blue Jays</a> and are riding a four game win streak. While still 11 games back of the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> in the NL West, they’ve climbed back into the NL Wild Card race, and are currently tied with the <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/">Rockies</a>, 2.5 games back of the Braves. </p>
<p id="iaKBsP">The DBacks of course have been battling injuries all year long as well. <span>Adam Jones</span> and <span>Nick Ahmed</span> are the most recent additions to the list of injury concerns the team faces. <span>Jones</span> has been nursing a sore hamstring and has not played since exiting last Tuesday’s game against the Dodgers, and <span>Ahmed</span> left yesterday’s game with a sore foot and is day to day.</p>
<p id="pUFVcD">While Kevin Cron has given the team a boost off the bench, back in the NL without the DH will limit his playing time. <span>Tim Locastro</span> has been filling in admirably, playing an all around hustle game. But every day play may be exposing him a bit, as over the last week he’s not been getting on base nearly as much. Still he had a huge three run triple yesterday, and seems to do something to help the team win every day. </p>
<p id="pnCkCr"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/kalg1">DBacks last 7 Days Batting Splits</a></p>
<h2 id="azfl5b"><strong>Pitching Matchups</strong></h2>
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<p id="O4hz5n"><span>Taylor Clarke</span> is making his fourth start of the year for the <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a>. The only blemish so far has been one bad outing in Coors field. In his last start he valiantly tried to keep his team in the game, allowing three runs, two earned to the Dodgers in five innings in a game the DBacks went on to lose 9-0. Clarke throws mostly a Four Seam, Slider, Changeup repertoire but will mix in a Curve or Sinker here and there. He averages 93.1 MPH with his Four Seamer, which he uses almost half the time and it has some late break due to a decent spin rate. </p>
<p id="0XjaHx"><span>Jerad Eickhoff</span> had a bounce back outing vs. San Diego last time out after a rough four game stretch in May. Not a hard thrower, (89.5 MPH Four Seamer), he relies on his Curve and Slider over 60% of the time. He has elite spin rates on all three of his pitches and gets a ton of movement. The DBacks will need to be patient and wait him out. </p>
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<p id="U6yplE"><span>Jon Duplantier</span> is making his third start of the season. Last time out he threw five strong innings against the Dodgers, allowing two runs and striking out seven. Dup relies on 5 pitches, Sinker (35.%), Four Seam (24%) Slider (16%) Curve (15%) Changeup (11%). That five pitch mix makes him quite a handful, and while he’s taken a little off his velocity, (averaging about 92.5 between four seam and sinker) when he is locating he is very tough to hit. He’s been praised for his poise and mound presence.</p>
<p id="ScolIe">Jake Arietta still relies mostly on his heavy sinker, which he throws 54% of the time. While averaging 92.7 MPH on the pitch that’s about 2 MPH off his Cy Young peak in 2015, Jake’s seen his ERA and FIP rise each of the last 4 seasons. He’s coming off two really bad starts against the Dodgers and <a href="https://www.gaslampball.com/">Padres</a>, but has been somewhat better at home this year. <span>David Peralta</span> is the only DBack that has had more than 10 PA vs Arrieta and hasn’t had much success. Head to Head Matchups <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/OMBFh">HERE</a> . Looking at his <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=arrieja01&t=p&year=2019">game log</a>, one can see he is still capable of going 7-8 innings and allowing 3 runs or less. He’s done that four times this year and he’s got 8 quality starts as well. So he’s still a tough opponent, just no longer the Cy Young contender he used to be. </p>
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<p id="xo8zGX"><span>Merrill Kelly</span> is coming off two straight strong starts, going seven innings and allowing just one run in each of them. He struck out a career high 10 <a href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/">Mets</a> in his last outing. While <span>Kelly</span> doesn’t throw as hard as was reported at the time of his signing, he features elite spin rates and movement on his pitches, especially his curve. </p>
<p id="qRuyCf">Zack Efflin is enjoying the best season of his career to date, although his peripherals suggest his ERA might be a good deal lower than it should be. He’s doing a great job of not putting men on base via the walk though, and the line drive rate is only 15% (hence the .269 BABIP). He’s a power pitcher, featuring a 94 MPH four seam fastball and a hard slider. He’ll also mix in the occasional sinker and changeup. </p>
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<h2 id="nIfeE5"><strong>KEYS TO SERIES</strong></h2>
<p id="LaTnDC">While the DBacks have been getting a lot of mileage out of ambushing fastballs, I believe the key to the offense this series is being patient and working the count against their starters, who all look pretty solid to me. Their bullpen is struggling right now. The DBacks just need to keep things close and then try to take advantage in the later innings. That’s tougher to do on the road of course when you don’t have last ups. But the Philly pen is vulnerable right now. </p>
<p id="Y7Q31e">The other key is DBacks pitchers just can’t walk guys. They are going to give up some home runs this series. It’s a home run ballpark, and Philly hits a lot more of them at home, (45 HR at home vs 31 on the road). </p>
<p id="r3x9q5">The odds are Philly wins this series 2-1. It’s tough to go in there with three rookie starters in a row and come out with more than one win. </p>
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https://www.azsnakepit.com/2019/6/10/18659603/series-preview-22-diamondbacks-phillies-bryce-harper-david-peraltaJack Sommers