AZ Snake Pit - Game #107, 7/29: Diamondbacks 5, Padres 4An unofficial Arizona Diamondbacks community and bloghttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47033/azsnakepit_f.png2018-07-29T21:03:47-04:00http://www.azsnakepit.com/rss/stream/173913372018-07-29T21:03:47-04:002018-07-29T21:03:47-04:00Arizona Diamondbacks 5, San Diego Padres 4: SoCal cures all ills
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<img alt="Arizona Diamondbacks v San Diego Padres" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/99mW1viz5S1etDvLliHImCpKi-0=/0x0:4000x2667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/60610007/1007434084.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Any concerns the losses in Chicago might have a lasting effect have been put to rest after Arizona completed their first sweep in San Diego for over 12 years. </p> <p id="LDLfgv"><strong>Record: 59-48. Pace: 89-73. Change on 2017: -2.</strong></p>
<p id="d6h2bi">The <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> close out the road trip with a 5-2 record. While that should have been 6-1, and possibly even 7-0, we can’t complain too much about the end result. Arizona comes home to Chase Field one-half game back of Los Angeles, and play six games this week against teams below .500, in Texas and San Francisco. The <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a>, meanwhile, face teams currently occupying playoff spots in the <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Brewers</a> and <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Astros</a>. So it’s quite easy to see scenarios where the D-backs have climbed their way back on top of the division at this time next week. </p>
<p id="QaM2cu">It was also good to see the D-backs come out on the right end of a one-run game for once. They had only posted a single one-run win over the last month, the 2-1 victory in Atlanta on July 13, and had a 1-5 record in that time. Today’s victory improved Arizona’s season mark to 15-18, but that’s still three games worse than what you would expect based off our overall record. This one probably swung on a successful challenge in the eighth inning, when a call of safe at second became a force out. The next batter hit an RBI double which would very likely have tied the game with two aboard. We’ll get to that in a bit, but it was Arizona’s 20th successful appeal: no team in the majors has more. </p>
<p id="otJPR8">After a pair of games where the D-backs were kept entirely within the ballpark, all their runs this afternoon came courtesy of the long-ball. The broadcast suggested that the absence of the marine layer at Petco was making the ball fly further. Wondering if that was the case, I checked the pitching splits: across all of baseball, day ERA is fractionally lower than night ERA (4.13 vs. 4.17). But for the <a href="https://www.gaslampball.com/">Padres</a> pitchers, their day ERA is considerably lower (4.01 vs. 4.61), and the HR rate is lower too: 0.96 compared to 1.09 per nine innings. While these numbers would include day games in all parks, not just Petco, it doesn’t seem to suggest the marine layer makes much of a difference. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">A frozen rope that wouldn't melt even in Arizona heat. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GoldschmidtHappens?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#GoldschmidtHappens</a> <a href="https://t.co/3O41G9NKw0">pic.twitter.com/3O41G9NKw0</a></p>— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) <a href="https://twitter.com/Dbacks/status/1023670843774185472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 29, 2018</a>
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<p id="qyeT78">This afternoon, it was three home-runs by <span>Paul Goldschmidt</span>, <span>A.J. Pollock</span> and <span>Nick Ahmed</span> which were key. <span>Goldschmidt</span>’s (above) came three batters into the game: after <span>Ketel Marte</span> had been walked, Paul donged one off the face of the Western Metal Supply Building in left field, his 23rd of the year, for a quick 2-0 lead. The next scoring came in the bottom of the third, when San Diego tied things up. <span>A.J. Ellis</span> led off with a double, but the Padres failed on two attempts to put down a bunt, and it looked like <span>Clay Buchholz</span> might escape. But a single was followed by a two-run double from Diamondback killer (TM) <span>Wil Myers</span>, and the score was leveled at two. </p>
<p id="TPT4Wx">Eight pitches later, the Diamondbacks had not just restored their advantage, they had extended it. <span>Pollock</span> led off with a home-run to center, Steven Souza followed with a single to left, and <span>Ahmed</span> chipped a 2-0 pitch just into the front row of left-field for a two-run shot, making the score 5-2. For both he and A.J, it was the 14th home-run of the season. Ahmed had two other hits this afternoon, getting his line for the season up to .239/.290/.446, a .736 OPS. Considering he came into this season with a career figure of .618, it has been quite the improvement. He was worth 2.0 bWAR coming into thsi game, and should beat his previous career high (2.3). Not bad, given he’ll earn less than $1.3 million. </p>
<p id="2w0Fru"><span>Clay Buchholz</span> may not have been quite as sharp as he was in his start at Wrigley, but he was good enough. Torey Lovullo tried to give him a chance to get through the sixth inning, but after an RBI single to Ellis made the score 5-3, with two men on base, Buchholz was done. He went 5.2 innings, allowing three runs on six hits and three walks, striking out seven. <span>Yoshihisa Hirano</span> threw one pitch to clear up that mess, and threw a perfect seventh, setting the stage for <span>Archie Bradley</span> in the eighth. He has occasionally been a bit wobbly of late, and this became the third time in his last eight outings where he has conceded a run or more. And it could have been worse. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Baseball is a game of inches. <a href="https://t.co/Gl6JpeLpIF">pic.twitter.com/Gl6JpeLpIF</a></p>— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) <a href="https://twitter.com/Dbacks/status/1023727721459765248?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 30, 2018</a>
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<p id="vez1JZ">The Padres started with a single, and <span>Christian Villanueva</span> hit the first pitch he saw to right. The ball dropped in front of Souza: the runner on first had to hold, and Souza fired to second where Ahmed made a sprawling snag. The initial call was safe, but Torey Lovullo appealed the play, and on review, it became a force-out at second. Two pitches later, <span>Freddy Galvis</span> drove the ball to left, off the despairing glove of <span>Jon Jay</span>, then back off the top of the fence. Pollock backed <span>Jay</span> up, and the relay home could have got the runner, but <span>John Ryan Murphy</span> (whose wretched July continued with a 0-4) dropped the ball. That play was also reviewed to see if it was a game-tying homer, but stood as a double. Phew. </p>
<p id="4LNJQe"><span>Bradley</span> was able to strand the tying run there, and Arizona went to the ninth with a one-run lead, and <span>Brad Boxberger</span> making his first appearance since blowing the finale in Chicago. Nervous? I know I was. But <span>Boxberger</span> could hardly have been any better, retiring the Padres in order for his 25th save, and completing the D-backs first three-game sweep in San Diego since Apr 24-26, 2006. With the Dodgers losing, the NL West tightened up. We are half a game back of the Dodgers, with the <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/">Rockies</a> a further half game back of the D-backs. In the wild-card race, we’re 1.5 back of Milwaukee, and 0.5 up on Colorado, with Atlanta one game further down. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Has David Peralta been traded?! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/youngfannothappy?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#youngfannothappy</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Dbacks?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Dbacks</a> <a href="https://t.co/TQQgQtElfI">pic.twitter.com/TQQgQtElfI</a></p>— CAMERYN BECK (@CBECKTV) <a href="https://twitter.com/CBECKTV/status/1023698233871106048?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 29, 2018</a>
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<p id="a1ub6a">There was one bit of bad news, with <span>David Peralta</span> being lifted from the game. This led to some feverish speculation that he might have been traded (above), but it turns out to have been an issue with his shoulder instead. We’re still waiting for more information - there was no post-game show on Fox Sports Arizona today - but hopefully the issue is not too serious, and this was more precautionary. </p>
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<div id="7vRUDO"><p style="text-align:center"><b>Click <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?date=2018-07-29&team=Padres&dh=0&season=2018" target="_blank">here</a> for details, at Fangraphs.com</b>
<br><b>Eiffel Tower: Brad Boxberger, +19.0%</b>
<br>Arc de Triomphe: Goldschmidt, +18.4%; Ahmed, +16.9%; Hirano, +14.2%
<br><b><i>The Paris Catacombs: Clay Buchholz, -7.9%</i></b></p></div>
<p id="8JqaLp">Happy Gameday Thread was happy, with 524 comments from AzDbackfanInDc, AzRattler, BobDolio, DBacksEurope, DORRITO, DeadManG, Gilbertsportsfan, GuruB, Justin27, Makakilo, Michael McDermott, MikeMono, MrMrrbi, Rockkstarr12, Smurf1000, TSWINDERS, VegBerger, asteroid, coldblueAZ, gamepass, hotclaws, kilnborn, makattack71, pyroman168, smartplays and that_tall_fella. Comment of the day to Rockkstarr12, for this, during the eighth inning.</p>
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<p id="m4pSOp">I think we ALL needed one after that inning... But it’s a happy flight back to Arizona for the D-backs, where they will face the <a href="https://www.lonestarball.com/">Texas Rangers</a> in a quick two-game set. beginning tomorrow night. <span>Robbie Ray</span> starts for the Diamondbacks. </p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2018/7/29/17628350/arizona-diamondbacks-san-diego-padres-recapJim McLennan2018-07-29T19:40:19-04:002018-07-29T19:40:19-04:00Arizona Diamondbacks 5, San Diego Padres 4
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<img alt="Arizona Diamondbacks v San Diego Padres" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/AdEflod_AWqsys6wrViH5fTX1Oc=/0x0:4000x2667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/60609493/1007396180.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Arizona rode the long ball to complete the sweep of San Diego</p> <p id="HdtgCz">Three home-runs brought Arizona fans tacos in the series finale at Petco Park this afternoon in San Diego. Paul Goldschmidt got things started with his 23rd of the season, a two-run shot in the first inning (above). After the <a href="https://www.gaslampball.com/">Padres</a> had tied things up in the third, the D-backs immediately responded with a solo shot by <span>A.J. Pollock</span>, leading off the fourth, and <span>Nick Ahmed</span> added a two-run homer of his own later in the inning. It was the 14th home-run for each man. </p>
<p id="0WVjiP"><span>Clay Buchholz</span> was... okay. He went 5.2 innings, allowing three runs on six hits and three walks with seven strikeouts. <span>Yoshihisa Hirano</span> got the next four outs, but <span>Archie Bradley</span> had a wobbly outing, allowing a run in an eighth inning best described as “interesting.” Witha one-run lead, <span>Brad Boxberger</span> saw his first action since the Wrigley meltdown, and closed out the game with a 1-2-3 ninth to secure the sweep. <span>Ahmed</span> had three hits, Goldschmidt and <span>Pollock</span> two apiece, but <span>David Peralta</span> had to leave the game with shoulder tightness. Arizona now sits one-half back of Los Angeles. </p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2018/7/29/17628324/arizona-diamondbacks-san-diego-padres-scoreJim McLennan2018-07-29T16:00:02-04:002018-07-29T16:00:02-04:00Gameday Thread, #107: 7/29
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<img alt="New Year Celebration In Paris, France On December 31st" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ZLfVbaG34j36ndp8lmCp2EZTYHs=/0x0:2996x1997/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/60607217/460940962.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Aurelien Meunier/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">July 29 - 1836: France - the Arc de Triomphe, designed by Jean Chalgrin in 1806, was inaugurated in Paris. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/history?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#history</a></p>— Today In History (@Yesterday_Today) <a href="https://twitter.com/Yesterday_Today/status/1023617462804332546?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 29, 2018</a>
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https://www.azsnakepit.com/2018/7/29/17627580/gameday-thread-107-7-29Jim McLennan2018-07-29T15:00:02-04:002018-07-29T15:00:02-04:00Preview, #107: 7/29 @ Padres
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<img alt="Arizona Diamondbacks v Minnesota Twins" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/dsn2vJHWp737mZW-rDrqn21lxOQ=/0x0:3000x2000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/60607193/835346690.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Brooms on standby at Petco, as the D-backs go for the sweep</p> <div id="qVnRHX">
<div class="pane sports_data_widget lineup clearfix">
<h3>Today's Lineups</h3>
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<th align="left">DIAMONDBACKS</th>
<th align="left">PADRES</th>
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<td class="td-last td-name">David Peralta - LF</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Travis Jankowski - RF</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Ketel Marte - 2B</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Manuel Margot - CF</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Paul Goldschmidt - 1B</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Wil Myers - LF</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">A.J. Pollock - CF</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Eric Hosmer - 1B</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Steven Souza - RF</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Christian Villanueva - 3B</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Nick Ahmed - SS</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Freddy Galvis - SS</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Chris Owings - 3B</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Carlos Asuaje - 2B</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">John Ryan Murphy - C</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">A.J. Ellis - C</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Clay Buchholz - RHP</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Joey Lucchesi - LHP</td>
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<p id="X9QKwM">In yesterday’s recap, asteroid was asking about double-plays, after I mentioned that <span>David Peralta</span> was leading the team in this area. I thought I’d dig a bit more into this. It turns out there is a wide discrepancy across the team, both in double-play opportunities (some players are a lot more likely to come up with a runner on first and one out) and in the double-play rate (the percentage of times a GIDP results). Across the entire team, there have 709 double-play chances, resulting in 65 double-plays, a 9.2% rate. Below are, for each player with more than 10 chances, the number of opportunities and double-plays into which they have hit. </p>
<ul>
<li id="CYvi1a">
<span>Paul Goldschmidt</span> - 97/2</li>
<li id="EKSAdd">
<span>David Peralta</span> - 71/10</li>
<li id="dkYP8X">
<span>Nick Ahmed</span> - 65/8</li>
<li id="VFLlyA">
<span>Jake Lamb</span> - 61/4</li>
<li id="LbM0u6">
<span>Ketel Marte</span> - 59/6</li>
<li id="WKbz6k">
<span>A.J. Pollock</span> - 57/4</li>
<li id="upybVt">
<span>Daniel Descalso</span> - 46/1</li>
<li id="UpH2Nh">
<span>Jarrod Dyson</span> - 36/3</li>
<li id="g4ULqk">
<span>Chris Owings</span> - 35/3</li>
<li id="bXHpGX">
<span>John Ryan Murphy</span> - 32/1</li>
<li id="4YPVtm">
<span>Jeff Mathis</span> - 24/3</li>
<li id="mm1ZZq">
<span>Steven Souza Jr.</span> - 22/2</li>
<li id="AGwqyc">
<span>Alex Avila</span> - 22/2</li>
<li id="6GsK2h">
<span>Jon Jay</span> - 16/5</li>
<li id="3h5Yx5">
<span>Deven Marrero</span> - 15/5</li>
</ul>
<p id="XzWYIK">A couple of things stand out. While Peralta may have the highest <em>number</em> of double-plays, he also has the second-highest number of opportunities. His rate of 14.1% is above average but not disastrous. It may just be random chance, as the rate is a career high, with his overall figure being much more in line with the average, at 10.2%. If you’re looking for people who are really likely to hit into a double-play, <span>Jay</span> and <span>Marrero</span> are the candidates. They’ve combined for the same number of DPs as Peralta, in fewer than half the chances. At the other end of the spectrum, chalk up another thing Goldy is good at. His GIDP rate is only 2.1% Though, again, his career figure is 10.3%, making this year an outlier. </p>
<p id="UPaTKg">I would imagine the two main factors that go into DP rate is ground-ball rate and sprinting speed. Thanks to Statcast we now have <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard?year=2018&position=&team=ARI&min=10">stats for the latter</a>, and we do see - perhaps a bit surprisingly - that Jay is faster only than the two catchers, <span>Mathis</span> and <span>Avila</span>. However, the wide variations in DP rate for a player, year to year, suggest that speed (which would be relatively constant) is not the main factor. If we look at the ratio of groundouts/fly outs this season, we find Jay and Peralta at the top: at 2.29, Jay’s rate is more than twice team average (1.12), while at the other end, <span>Goldschmidt</span> (0.86) and <span>Descalso</span> (0.56) do indeed have amongst the lowest DP percentages. </p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2018/7/29/17627308/preview-107-7-29-padresJim McLennan