AZ Snake Pit - Game #78, June 25: Diamondbacks 5, Marlins 9An unofficial Arizona Diamondbacks community and bloghttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47033/azsnakepit_f.png2018-06-25T23:21:28-04:00http://www.azsnakepit.com/rss/stream/172677192018-06-25T23:21:28-04:002018-06-25T23:21:28-04:00Diamondbacks 5, Marlins 9: Not Ready for Prime Time
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<img alt="6,105 in attendance at Marlins Park tonight." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/PjsdcDYwe1d3xBhUBKdpq_21I7U=/0x0:3000x2000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/60181957/983914706.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Shelby Miller is finally back pitching in the major leagues, but some iffy fastball command and some umpirical whimsy ensured that tonight was not his night…</p> <p id="cUSnMh">I was kind of worried about what I was going to get when I realized that Shelby’s first post-Tommy John surgery start was going to fall on my recap day. I was guardedly hopeful, though, because in 2016 and 2017 I recapped a couple of Miller starts, and I recall seeing some bright spots and having some hope, especially last year. He was so roundly reviled by our fan base throughout 2016 that I wound up feeling bad for him, and have wanted to root for him whenever he takes the mound for us. So that’s where my head was at going into today’s game.</p>
<p id="PhQzdv">The game started somewhat ominously, with John Jay and Goldy seeing all of four pitches between them as the <a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/">Marlins</a> recorded two quick outs. <span>Jake Lamb</span>, hitting in the three spot tonight, didn’t show much more patience than that, but that’s because the third pitch he saw from Marlins’ starter <span>Dan Straily</span> went to the low-inside quadrant of the strike zone. You know, Jake’s happy place. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Jake Lamb adds to the <a href="https://twitter.com/Dbacks?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Dbacks</a>' 1st-inning run total -- 55, 3rd best in baseball -- with a solo blast to right. <a href="https://t.co/439r5LNEil">pic.twitter.com/439r5LNEil</a></p>— FOX Sports Arizona (@FOXSPORTSAZ) <a href="https://twitter.com/FOXSPORTSAZ/status/1011387804046069760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 25, 2018</a>
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<p id="RPd71E"><span>Daniel Descalso</span> popped out to second to end the inning, though he did hang a nice 8-pitch at bat on Straily before doing so. <strong>1-0 D-BACKS</strong></p>
<p id="MPw1v4">The bottom of the first was something of a carbon copy of the top half…<span>Shelby Miller</span> retired the first two batters he faced, before running the count full on Marlins first baseman <span>Justin Bour</span> and giving up a homer to right. He induced <span>Starlin Castro</span> to fly out to right to end the inning. Miller didn’t seem particularly sharp, though his fastball velocity was encouraging, staying in the 94-96 mph range. It took him 22 pitches to retire his first four batters. <strong>1-1 TIE</strong></p>
<p id="MRZe0w">Happily, the <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> retook the lead in the top of the second, thanks to Straily grazing <span>Chris Owings</span> for a one-out HBP. Jerrod Dyson followed with an excuse-me swing on an 0-2 pitch that snuck through the infield for a single to left. <span>Jeff Mathis</span> then stroked a solid single into left center to score Owings and bring Dyson around to third. Shelby Miller came to bat from the first time since last April, and after staring at two strikes pretty much down the middle, roused himself a bit, fouling off a pitch and taking a couple of balls before swatting a fly ball to shallow left field that turned out to be deep enough for Dyson to tag and score. <strong>3-1 D-BACKS</strong></p>
<p id="bXZCtc">Miller pitched around a lead-off walk to start the second to retire the Marlins quietly. Again, though, it took him 21 pitches to retire the four batters he faced in this inning.</p>
<p id="vRhADB">Goldy led off the third inning with a single to center. Lamb followed with a high, slow chopper to Starlin Castro at second, who threw to shortstop <span>JT Riddle</span> for the force on Goldschmidt. Goldy beat the throw, however, so we had runners on first and second with nobody out. The Lamb grounder was on odd play in that it was scored a fielder’s choice, even though no out was recorded; Lamb wasn’t awarded an infield hit, and Castro wasn’t charged with an error. I’m not sure I’ve ever noticed a play being scored that way before. Weird. Anyway, Dan Straily suddenly decided to settle down, and retired Descalso, Marte, and Owings in order to end the threat.</p>
<p id="T4RDOw">Miller ran into more trouble in the bottom of the third, giving up a first-pitch double to Dan Straily. He retired Darrell Dietrich on a weak flare to Goldschmidt, then surrendered a single to right to Marlins right fielder <span>Brian Anderson</span>. He ran the count full on Justin Bour in a tense at bat before catching him looking at an inside strike. He wouldn’t escape unscathed, though, as Starlin Castro singled to center, driving in Straily. JT Riddle struck out looking to end the inning. <strong>3-2 D-BACKS</strong></p>
<p id="KOs4v0">Dan Straily seemed suddenly locked in, needing only eight pitches to set the Diamondbacks down in order in the fourth. Miller’s difficulties continued in the bottom of the frame as he gave up a leadoff single to <span>Miguel Rojas</span>, who advanced to second on a <span>Lewis Brinson</span> groundout. Miller then struck out catcher Brian Holaday for the second out of the inning, before running the count full to Straily. He threw the seventh pitch of the at bat an inch or two off the outside edge, a pitch which home plate umpire Adam Hamari had been calling a strike all night, for both starters, whether a lefty or righty was at the plate. Inexplicably, Hamari chose to call the pitch ball four this time, even as Mathis had come out of his crouch and he and Miller had begun to head to the dugout. But no. Bases loaded.</p>
<p id="e0m5k0">Miller had been shaky all night, to be fair, and he was already at 84 pitches, so he was kinda running on fumes, but that call just shattered him, I think. He threw one pitch to Dietrch, who smacked it sharply to right for a single that scored Rojas from second. That was enough for Torey Lovullo, who gave Miller the hook and brought in TJ McFarland. McFarland promptly gave up a double to <span>Brian Anderson</span> that drove in Straily and Dietrich, before striking out Bour to stop the bleeding. <strong>5-3 MIAMI</strong></p>
<p id="xR9GG7">McFarland cruised through the next two innings, setting the Marlins in order. Sadly, our offense had gone to sleep as well, as Straily retired seven of the last eight he faced before being pulled for former Diamondback Brad Ziegler. <span>Braden Shipley</span> retired the top of the Marlins’ order in the seventh, and came out to pitch the eighth. It did not go nearly so well, as the first six batters Shipley faced reached base, with three singles, two walks, and then a third single. I’m honestly not sure why Shipley was left in…I think there was a problem with the bullpen phone or something. Anyway, he finally turned it around, retiring the guys he’d faced the previous inning, in order, to put a stop to it. <strong>9-4 MIAMI</strong></p>
<p id="mdOK1S">Which was a pity, as the bats finally roused themselves a bit in the top of the ninth. Marte led off with a triple to center, which Owings immediately followed with a double to nearly exactly the same spot. He advanced to third on Dyson’s groundout to first, and scored on a Mathis sac fly to left. <span>David Peralta</span> came in to pinch hit and drew a walk, but alas, that was all she wrote, as John Jay grounded out to third to end the rally and the game.</p>
<p id="iCn0Qj"><strong>Win probability</strong></p>
<p id="TCsvrX"><em>courtesy of </em><a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?date=2018-06-25&team=Marlins&dh=0&season=2018"><em><strong>FanGraphs</strong></em></a></p>
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<p id="ua7mXq"><strong>Packard Caribbean Convertible: </strong><em><strong>Jake Lamb, +10.9% WPA</strong></em><br><strong>Packard Focus: Jeff Mathis, </strong><em><strong>+4.4% WPA</strong></em><br><strong>Packard Yard Car: </strong><em><strong>Shelby Miller, -18.4 WPA</strong></em></p>
<p id="JNW2ol">Surprisingly lively Game Day Thread tonight, with 581 comments from 30 different commenters. Pretty robust for a Monday. Present and accounted for were: AzDbackfanInDc, BobDolio, DBacksEurope, DORRITO, DeadManG, Desert_Devil, GuruB, Jackwriter, Jim McLennan, Makakilo, Michael McDermott, MikeMono, Renin, Rockkstarr12, SenSurround, ShirtOffYourBack, Turambar, Wesley Baier, aldma, asteroid, david.munter, edbigghead, gamepass, hotclaws, lildbackfan21x, onedotfive, shoewizard, since_98, smartplays, and suroeste.</p>
<p id="G8KlLB">CotG goes to edbigghead, I think, in part because of the comment itself but also for the excellent thread that hived off as a result of it:</p>
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<p id="2owrGH">Thanks for reading, and let’s hope for better luck tomorrow. Go D-Backs!</p>
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https://www.azsnakepit.com/2018/6/25/17504800/diamondbacks-5-marlins-9-not-ready-for-prime-timeDano_in_Tucson2018-06-25T22:44:29-04:002018-06-25T22:44:29-04:00Diamondbacks 5, Marlins 9
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<img alt="Arizona Diamondbacks v Miami Marlins" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ky3kHIwPEPZHiLc2kGCvrYBkyA4=/20x0:2981x1974/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/60181667/983878736.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>No luck for Shelby tonight...</p> <p id="rGFPWh">Tonight was the long-anticipated (and for some, long-feared) return of Shelby Miller to the starting rotation after Tommy John surgery last spring. Aaaaand...yeah. It didn’t go all that well. Miller’s fastball command was iffy, but aside from a solo shot to Justin Bour in the first, he was reasonably effective through his first two. He gave up another run in the third on three hits, but entered the fourth inning with the lead, thanks to a Jake Lamb dinger in the first and two runs from the bottom of the order in the second (including, it should be mentioned, an RBI sacrifice fly by Miller himself to help the cause).</p>
<p id="LqlHH6">Sadly, however, the wheels really came off for Shelby in the fourth, in part thanks to some unfortunate and badly-timed strike zone whimsy from home plate umpire Adam Hamari, and Miller wound up leaving with two outs in the inning, for a pitching line of 6H, 2BB 5K, 5R and 5ER in 3 1/3IP.</p>
<p id="TgaiQi">His was perhaps not the worst pitching performace of the night for the Diamondbacks, though, as Braden Shipley let the first six batters he faced in the eighth inning reach, resulting in four more Marlins runs. The Diamondbacks’ offense showed a bit of spark in the top of the ninth, pulling us within four, but we came up short.</p>
<p id="Vm7URD">Full recap to follow in a bit. </p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2018/6/25/17504752/diamondbacks-5-marlins-9Dano_in_Tucson2018-06-25T19:00:02-04:002018-06-25T19:00:02-04:00Gameday Thread, #78: 6/25 @ Marlins
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<figcaption>Kevin Winter/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p lang="en" dir="ltr">June 25 - 1956: U.S. - the last Packard automobile rolled off the production line at Packard's plant in Detroit, Michigan. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/history?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#history</a></p>— Today In History (@Yesterday_Today) <a href="https://twitter.com/Yesterday_Today/status/1011371774800429058?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 25, 2018</a> </blockquote>
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https://www.azsnakepit.com/2018/6/25/17503926/gameday-thread-78-6-25-marlinsJim McLennan2018-06-25T18:00:02-04:002018-06-25T18:00:02-04:00Preview #78: 6/25 @ Marlins
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<img alt="MLB: San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/eSQu8RXAQ55WwtQmvznyIa0iJ28=/0x0:4920x3280/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/60178697/usa_today_10796494.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The return of Shelby Miller...</p> <div id="Ak8Slu">
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<h3>Today's Lineups</h3>
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<th align="left">ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS</th>
<th align="left">MIAMI MARLINS</th>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Jon Jay - LF</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Derek Dietrich - LF</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Paul Goldschmidt - 1B</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Brian Anderson - RF</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Jake Lamb - 3B</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Justin Bour - 1B</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Daniel Descalso - 2B</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Starlin Castro - 2B</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Ketel Marte - SS</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">JT Riddle - SS</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Chris Owings - RF</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Miguel Rojas - 3B</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Jarrod Dyson - CF</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Lewis Brinson - CF</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Jeff Mathis - C</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Bryan Holaday - C</td>
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<td class="td-last td-name">Shelby Miller - RHP</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Dan Straily - RHP</td>
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<p id="9MUEz3">The team had to make a roster move to accommodate <span>Shelby Miller</span> today, but it wasn’t quite the one expected - sending <span>Braden Shipley</span> back to Reno. Instead, <span>Clay Buchholz</span> has been placed on the 10-day DL with an oblique issue to make way for Miller on the 25-man roster [a 40-man spot had already been opened due to the DFA-ing of pitcher <span>Stefan Crichton</span>, who had been picked up for cash from the <a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/">Orioles</a> in early April, but had an ERA in double-digits for Reno]. Buchholz <a href="https://twitter.com/ZHBuchanan/status/1011340294065926146">said</a> he feels no worse than yesterday, but will take a few days off throwing. One imagines <span>Matt Koch</span> - who pitched yesterday for the Aces - would be promoted when we need a fifth starter on Friday. It all seems a bit... tactical to me!</p>
<p id="jAaS0U">What might we expect from Miller? Hopefully, his return to the rotation will goes as smoothly as the one of <span>Patrick Corbin</span> in 2015. Let’s compare Corbin’s stats the rest of that season, with what he produced before having Tommy John:<br><strong>2013</strong>: 32 GS, 208.1 IP, 3.41 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 3.30 K:BB<br><strong>2015</strong>: 16 GS, 85 IP, 3.60 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 4.59 K:BB<br>The main difference is a drop in innings per start, from 6.5 to 5.3. But both the ERA and the fielding-independent ERA were within 0.20 of the figure before Corbin had surgery, with a rather better strikeout to walk ratio afterward. I expect them to be cautious with Miller’s pitch-count. Corbin’s first two games were 76 and 67 pitches, and he topped out at 91 in his sixteen starts, so having Shipley around for piggy-back purposes does make some sense. </p>
<p id="SjsNwo">It’ll also help that he is going against a weak offense: the <a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/">Marlins</a> wRC+ of 83 this season is last in the National League. However, they have been rather better of late, with a figure of 93 over the past thirty days. They’ve actually won three of their last four series, including victories in both Baltimore and Colorado during their 5-5 road-trip which just concluded, so they should not been considered a complete pushover. As the <a href="https://www.redreporter.com/">Reds</a> showed with a four-game sweep of the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> in Chicago over the weekend, any MLB team can still win against any other team. So it would be wise of the D-backs to keep playing - and, in particular, pitching - the way they did in Pittsburgh. Can’t lose first place if you don’t lose...</p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2018/6/25/17503388/preview-78-6-25-marlinsJim McLennan