AZ Snake Pit - Arizona Diamondbacks: Second-base rumorsAn unofficial Arizona Diamondbacks community and bloghttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47033/azsnakepit_f.png2016-01-25T19:00:04-05:00http://www.azsnakepit.com/rss/stream/105731292016-01-25T19:00:04-05:002016-01-25T19:00:04-05:00Arizona Diamondbacks looking to trade Aaron Hill
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<figcaption>Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>This appears to be the way we're looking to free up some roster space - perhaps some salary room too.</p> <p>Yesterday, Jon Heyman Tweeted:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">D-backs trying to trade aaron hill, but in market stocked with better (kendrick, desmond, Rollins, etc) -- very tall task</p>
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/691312909302001665">January 24, 2016</a>
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Yes, at the present time, it's hard to see a team opting to trade for Hill over the available free agents mentioned - perhaps <span>Jimmy Rollins</span> less so, but <span>Howie Kendrick</span> and <span>Ian Desmond</span> are both likely to perform significantly better than <span>Aaron Hill</span> in 2016. In order to compete there, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> would likely have to eat the majority, and quite possibly the vast majority, of the $12 million Hill is due to earn in 2016. For some <i>inexplicable</i> reason, there are just not very many suitors for a player earning that much money, who'll turn 34 come Opening Day, and who was worth a total of -1.5 bWAR over the past two seasons.</p>
<p>Hill does have some advantages, not least that he would not cost the team acquiring him a draft pick, unlike Desmond and Kendrick (Rollins didn't get a qualifying offer). But it seems the most likely route involves a trade like the one discussed with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.redreporter.com/">Reds</a> earlier involving Hill for their overpaid and under-performing 2B, Brandon Phillips. However, that appears to have died on the vine after Phillips demanded an extension in order to waive his no-trade clause. That was in regard to the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/">Washington Nationals</a>, but there's no reason to think he'd do otherwise with regard to a move to Arizona, and the team has, understandably, no interest in such an extension.</p>
<p>Still, it does perhaps give the blueprint for a deal: exchanging bad contracts with a team that has need of a second baseman, and can offer something similar in an area which could be more useful for the Diamondbacks. A couple of other possibilities have been thrown around, though I make absolutely no claims for plausibility.</p>
<ul>
<li>To the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.halosheaven.com/">Angels</a> for <span>C.J. Wilson</span>. The 35-year-old Wilson wasn't <i>terrible</i> last season, going 8-8 with a 3.89 ERA. That ERA+ of 96 wouldn't be awful as the fifth member of the Diamondbacks rotation this year, but Wilson is due a monstrous $20 million in 2016, so would cost the team $8 million more than Hill.</li>
<li>To the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.bucsdugout.com/">Pirates</a> as an injury replacement for Jung-Ho Kang. Kang was taken out in mid-September after <span class="st">suffering a broken left leg and torn knee ligament, on </span>a slide into second by the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a>' Chris Coghlan. His status for next season remains uncertain - <a target="_blank" href="http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/pirates-jung-ho-kang-making-progress-from-injury/">recent reports</a> have Kang perhaps able to return in late April, but as he hasn't even resumed baseball activities at this point, that very much up in the air.</li>
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<p>It's hard to be sure who else might be interested. The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a>, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Brewers</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Braves</a> are the National League teams who were most in need of an upgrade there, based on their 2015 performance, while the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.southsidesox.com/">White Sox</a>, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.royalsreview.com/">Royals</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a> occupy the same position in the National League. [Moves made during the offseason may, of course, now have rendered those needs obsolete]. So, any thoughts on who could use a veteran clubhouse presence like Hill?</p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2016/1/25/10829210/arizona-diamondbacks-looking-to-trade-aaron-hillJim McLennan2016-01-24T20:50:00-05:002016-01-24T20:50:00-05:00Ian Desmond and the D-backs: a more in-depth look
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<figcaption>Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Earlier in this story stream, I took a preliminary look at Ian Desmond as a potential free agent candidate at the 2B position because of this Fangraphs article that Desmond would be a better alternative than Howie Kendrick. In the poll at the bottom of the article, it was a close race between <span>Ian Desmond</span> and not making any more signings. Signing Desmond would mean the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> forfeit the 39th pick in the draft and the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/">Nationals</a> get a draft pick at the bottom of the first round. As we all know, Desmond had a horror show season in 2015 where it seemed that all of his struggles piled on top of each other.</p>
<p>There is a lot of risk when it comes to signing Desmond, especially to a long-term deal. I am in favor of a shorter term deal, something in the realm of 2-3 years that would allow for the team to plug this hole and take pressure off top prospect Jamie Westbrook to develop. The risks include the factors causing Desmond's struggles in 2015 being permanent, an unsuccessful transition in the field at 2B, or being plagued by injuries over the entire length of the contract. Now the question becomes does the benefit outweigh the risk? Desmond will likely command a contract north of $12M a year, I suspect more than $15M a year for a team that is desperate enough.</p>
<p>Taking a look into Desmond's struggles, first we look at his plate discipline numbers.</p>
<table border="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Year</td>
<td>O-Swing%</td>
<td>Z-Swing%</td>
<td>O-Contact%</td>
<td>Z-Contact%</td>
<td>Contact%</td>
<td>SwStr%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2012</td>
<td>37.5</td>
<td>72.8</td>
<td>61.5</td>
<td>87.4</td>
<td>78.2</td>
<td>11.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2013</td>
<td>35.6</td>
<td>70.2</td>
<td>62.2</td>
<td>83.5</td>
<td>75.3</td>
<td>12.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2014</td>
<td>34.6</td>
<td>68.6</td>
<td>53.7</td>
<td>83.4</td>
<td>72.1</td>
<td>13.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015</td>
<td>35.2</td>
<td>70.1</td>
<td>56.9</td>
<td>84.0</td>
<td>73.3</td>
<td>13.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>*Stats provided by Baseball Information Solutions via Fangraphs</p>
<p>Using plate discipline numbers, there's no real correlation to why the wheels suddenly fell off in 2015, but these numbers can be somewhat concerning. From 2014 to 2015, Desmond has swung at more pitches in and out of the strike zone and has made contact at a more frequent rate. His swinging strike rate dropped 0.6%. So plate discipline probably isn't the culprit for his struggles, even though his strikeout rate ballooned the last two years. Maybe Desmond gets rung up a lot by the umpire on borderline pitches.</p>
<p>Like I said in the comments section of the previous Desmond article, his hard hit rate dropped from 32% to 28% while his soft hit percent jumped from 16% to 20%. That likely factored in why his BABIP dropped from .326 to .307. His career BABIP is .322, so there is reason for optimism that it could tilt up. Even with some expectations of a possible regression of BABIP from .307 towards his career rate of .322, it may be that Desmond has lost a bit of bat speed. That is a legitimate question to ask because Desmond is now 30 years old.</p>
<p>To answer that question, MLB.com's Andrew Simon <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/162165806/ian-desmond-still-on-free-agent-market" target="_blank">tried to answer the question of why Desmond hasn't been signed yet</a>. In the article, it mentions that Desmond averaged 91.6 MPH as his exit velocity, which placed him 36th in the league. Looking even further into that, Desmond generated +4.1 MPH exit velocity in 2015, a number that measures the difference in exit velocity and pitch velocity. That mark put Desmond 20th in MLB, which would likely be his top selling point for a potential bounce-back campaign. The article also includes a graph correlating exit velocity to wOBA.</p>
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<p>The graph predicts that Desmond should have posted a wOBA around .345-.350 in 2015 based on his exit velocity and the .294 figure he actually posted is more due to bad luck. However, the plot is a complete scatter, so the correlation is unreliable as well. I do believe he is likely due for a decline in bat speed because of his age in the future, but the 2015 drop off seems unexplained by looking at exit velocity. The article later points out the Diamondbacks as a potential fit at 2B if Desmond is willing to make the position change. MLB Statcast listed Desmond as a 5-tool player, with their criteria being this:</p>
<p><span>Hitting: Batting exit velocity of ≥ 110 mph</span><br style="color: #252525; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;"><span>Hitting for power: Home run distance of ≥ 425 feet</span><br style="color: #252525; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;"><span>Fielding: Route efficiency of ≥ 98 percent</span><br style="color: #252525; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;"><span>Throwing: Throws of ≥ 85 mph</span><br style="color: #252525; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;"><span>Running: Top base running speed of ≥ 21 mph</span></p>
<p>With Desmond having a terrible platform season and legitimate concerns about his game, the Diamondbacks could swoop in and try to sign him for cheaper than it would have been a year ago. Desmond turned down a 7/$107M offer from the Nationals prior to 2014, which looks bad in hindsignt since the Nationals traded for his replacement and Desmond is still looking for a team in late January. For anyone wondering, that's $15.3 million per season. I'm not sure teams are going to try to offer him that much.</p>
<p>So where would be the reason for optimism for a bounce-back year for Ian Desmond? In 2015, he had a horrific first half where he batted .211/.255/.334 on a .279 BABIP. Desmond is not particularly known for being good in the first half of the season with a career .250/.293/.415 slashline. In the second half he batted .262/.331/.446 on a .346 BABIP and produced a 113 wRC+. I'm not sure why Desmond struggles in the first half, it may be due to weather of all things, but you're hoping that warmer weather in Arizona and a more hitter friendly environment will get Desmond to replicate his 2nd half performance over the course of the year.</p>
<p>In 2015, the Diamondbacks fielded a combination of <span>Aaron Hill</span> and <span>Chris Owings</span> at 2B, with Owings taking up most of games between the two. Aaron Hill showed to be a reliable bat off the bench in the 2nd half of 2015 and Owings' offense fell off a cliff due to big changes in his swing and shoddy plate discipline. The team's other internal options include <span>Phil Gosselin</span> and <span>Brandon Drury</span>. Gosselin has flashed a strong bat the last two seasons, but you wonder how reliable that sample size is with only 261 career appearances and no more than 118 in a single season. The Diamondbacks could experiment with Brandon Drury at 2B and hope that he winds up being the best option. Now the question becomes do the Diamondbacks go for the possible win now move and forfeit their top pick to sign Desmond or do they take the plunge with unproven options at 2B. I'm more in favor of the latter, but there is a valid argument for Desmond. It's a high-risk, high-reward type situation.</p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2016/1/25/10830900/ian-desmond-and-the-arizona-diamondbacks-a-more-in-depth-lookMichael McDermott2016-01-21T16:00:02-05:002016-01-21T16:00:02-05:00Is Ian Desmond A Better Option at 2B?
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<img alt="Could Ian Desmond be the Diamondbacks answer at the 2B position?" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/uGrnCkxN6qj8tYyULce5Gcb2YAY=/0x415:2297x1946/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/48613315/usa-today-8834079.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Could Ian Desmond be the Diamondbacks answer at the 2B position? | Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Could former Nationals SS Ian Desmond provide a better alternative than Howie Kendrick as a potential upgrade at the 2B position.</p> <p>We all know the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> are linked to <span>Howie Kendrick</span> and there's interest for the Diamondbacks to sign him. Personally I find that move to be unnecessary because I think he's very close to a major decline. There is more risk than upside towards signing Howie Kendrick, to which I suggest either the Diamondbacks go in-house or look elsewhere on the free agent market. Today, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-diamondbacks-have-a-howie-kendrick-alternative/" target="_blank">Fangraphs suggests that there is a better alternative in the free agent market for a 2B than Kendrick</a>. So who is the player in question? It's Ian Desmond.</p>
<p>Here's a look at <span>Ian Desmond's</span> numbers since 2012:</p>
<table border="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Year</td>
<td>Age</td>
<td>PA</td>
<td>OPS+</td>
<td>wRC+</td>
<td>ISO</td>
<td>DRS</td>
<td>K%</td>
<td>fWAR</td>
<td>bWAR</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2012</td>
<td>26</td>
<td>547</td>
<td>125</td>
<td>128</td>
<td>.218</td>
<td>-6</td>
<td>20.7</td>
<td>4.7</td>
<td>3.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2013</td>
<td>27</td>
<td>655</td>
<td>113</td>
<td>116</td>
<td>.173</td>
<td>-3</td>
<td>22.1</td>
<td>4.8</td>
<td>3.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2014</td>
<td>28</td>
<td>648</td>
<td>103</td>
<td>108</td>
<td>.175</td>
<td>+2</td>
<td>28.2</td>
<td>4.0</td>
<td>3.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015</td>
<td>29</td>
<td>641</td>
<td>80</td>
<td>83</td>
<td>.151</td>
<td>+1</td>
<td>29.1</td>
<td>1.7</td>
<td>2.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<p>Ian Desmond is probably a name on the surface that would make us all want to avoid like the plague for obvious reasons. Desmond takes ill-advised wild hacks that leads to strikeouts, makes concentration errors in the field, and can lose his composure at times when struggling. Over the last three years, the numbers have been trending in the wrong direction and that has hurt his free agent stock. No one wants to meet Desmond's price because of the issue of volatility. However, it's clear that he presents an upgrade over <span>Chris Owings</span> at 2B, even in his horrible platform year. Desmond is an ideal candidate for the Dbacks to take on a short-term deal if he's willing to do so.</p>
<p>Desmond will be moving from SS to 2B with a more steady defender in <span>Nick Ahmed</span> manning the position, so Desmond would move over to 2B. The last two years, he's saved 3 runs at SS in over 2700 innings which means defense isn't an issue although it would take some time to get comfortable with the new position. In addition to the glove, Desmond has baserunning value although age is a factor since Desmond will be in his age 30 season in 2016. Desmond has rated as a very good baserunner the last three years and the Diamondbacks love to push the envelope on the bases. In addition, the deep gaps at Chase Field should improve the XBH numbers for Desmond and he has plenty of power to spare, so it shouldn't take away much from his home run production.</p>
<p>To sign Desmond, it may require at least a 3 year deal north of $15M per season. Desmond posted 3 straight seasons of 3+ bWAR and 4+ fWAR before falling off the table in 2015. Moving to the NL West could increase his production at the plate with more games played at Chase Field and Coors Field. The Diamondbacks could try to sweeten the deal with a potential opt-out that would allow Desmond to opt out if he returns to his 2012-2014 form at the plate. However, given his age I don't think Desmond is looking to do a short-term deal and then re-establish his value. He's probably looking to cash in one final time and wants 4+ years. I'm not sure if the Diamondbacks would be willing to commit to a deal that long, particularly since they have a top 2B prospect about to start the 2016 in AA Mobile.</p>
<p>If the Diamondbacks ultimately decide to forfeit their Competitive Balance A pick to sign a FA to upgrade the 2B position, perhaps Ian Desmond would be a better option than Howie Kendrick. Desmond is two years younger and presents more defensive and baserunning value than Kendrick, even with the dropoff in production at the plate. In addition to the value outside of his bat, Desmond has also proven durability, playing 150+ games the last three seasons and 4 of the last 5 seasons. Of course, there is also the option for the Diamondbacks to essentially table the idea and go with their in-house options.</p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2016/1/21/10809108/possible-2b-free-agency-upgrade-ian-desmondMichael McDermott2016-01-21T11:57:45-05:002016-01-21T11:57:45-05:00Kendrick at Second Base?
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<figcaption>Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>We knew coming into the offseason that second base, the biggest black-hole on the roster last season, needed to be fixed in order for the team to compete. With the signing of Zack Greinke, fixing second base began to look like a major priority. Yet months have gone by without further news on that front. Is something finally going to happen?</p> <p>I'm fairly confident that last season wasn't fully complete when we began looking forward to 2016, identifying changes that needed to be made, and suggesting options for upgrades. James, in particular, wrote a sizable series looking at various ways to upgrade the team, following various models of teams that contended in 2015. In one of those articles, the suggestion of <span>Howie Kendrick</span> as a free agent signing to fix second base was brought up. There were, of course, several barriers to signing Kendrick. First, he received a qualifying offer, and therefore the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> would forfeit their first round pick in order to sign him. Second, he's not young. He turns 33 next year, making him just one year younger than <span>Aaron Hill</span> (albeit with lower mileage.) Third, while solid offensively, Kendrick is several years removed from his best offensive season (2011) and has posted an OPS over .750 just once since then.</p>
<p>While signing Greinke meant that Kendrick would no longer require a first round selection in addition to whatever money he commands, the other problems are still very much in place, and it was a good thing that the Diamondbacks didn't rush to sign him. Now, however, that might be changing</p>
<p>
<script charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Dbacks?src=hash">#Dbacks</a> are active in trade talks trying to move a 2B, which could clear room to sign FA Howie Kendrick</p>
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) <a href="https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/690159106913480704">January 21, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<p>Sure, consider the source. It's not like Nightengale is the most reliable source for Diamondbacks news, but it makes sense. There just aren't a lot of other options out there at present, and the Diamondbacks have multiple holes that still need filled, so if space (both salary space and roster space) can be cleared through a trade while filling another hole, and then Kendrick could be signed, that might wind up being a good deal. The question is, who would the Diamondbacks move to free up space? Who might they acquire? And would Kendrick really make that big of a difference, anyway?</p>
<p><b>Who could be moved?</b></p>
<p>The most obvious answer to this question, from the Diamondbacks' perspective, is Aaron Hill. He's set to make $12 million in 2016, and Kendrick would likely cost somewhere in that ballpark. But we have to face facts, and the likelihood of someone taking on Hill and all of his salary is somewhat akin to the likelihood of me winning the lottery without buying a ticket. The only way it happens is if the Diamondbacks take on a similarly undesirable salary or a problem player, which only helps the situation if that undesirable fills a position of need (which would likely be a corner-outfield spot or bullpen piece.) More likely, we see <span>Chris Owings</span> moved, which would be the definition of selling low. There's an outside chance <span>Nick Ahmed</span> could be moved, which would move Owings back to shortstop, but the net loss of defense (between Ahmed's A++ defense and Kendrick's C- defense) would probably mean that the middle infield would be worse in 2016 than it was in 2015. The remaining option would be to package a prospect with Hill in order to deal him; needless to say we don't want that to happen, but it might be required if the team is set on moving Hill.</p>
<p><b>Who could the Diamondbacks acquire?</b></p>
<p>The short answer would be "no one we would want, most likely." In a trade like this, you are basically looking at two kinds of returns. You either get the bad contract of the washed up player and hope that he turns it around in a new location (the Diamondbacks have successfully done this before, in acquiring Aaron Hill from the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Blue Jays</a> along with <span>John McDonald</span> for <span>Kelly Johnson</span>. That exchange of "bad" contracts worked in Arizona's favor, until they rewarded Hill with a mammoth contract, forgetting how dismal he was in Toronto in 2010 and 2011.) Or you get the clubhouse cancer, that another team just can't wait to be rid of. That rarely works out. By packaging a prospect with Hill, you could get some salary relief (but with the spending the team has done already, can't they just bite the bullet and spend a little more?) or possibly a useful middle of the bullpen piece. Realistically, that's the best return you can hope for in a trade of Aaron Hill. Remember, when he was 29 and making less than half what he is now, he was packaged with John McDonald for Kelly Johnson.</p>
<p><b>Does it make a difference?</b></p>
<p>Based on last year's performance, it makes a difference, and not a small one. The Diamondbacks were the worst team in the NL at second base last year, and not by a small margin. Second base was worth -2.3 WAA for the D-backs. The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a>, on the other hand, were middle of the pack, with their second base position worth -0.1 WAA. But that was more despite Kendrick than because of Kendrick. He was worth -0.5 WAA, which would still represent an improvement at the position, but there are some very real concerns.</p>
<p>First, there is Kendrick's glove. While UZR likes him more than DRS, neither rate his glove as a positive. That shouldn't be too surprising; defense is typically the first to go. DRS has never particularly liked Kendrick's glove, but UZR had him as one of the top second basemen in 2011, and his decline from 2014 to 2015 was precipitous. That's a bit of a concern, but it could be argued that a lot of it was sharing the field with some really bad fielders in Los Angeles. Playing between <span>Paul Goldschmidt</span> and Nick Ahmed would certainly take that out of the equation. That said, UZR rated Chris Owings as <i>worse</i> at second base, so perhaps Kendrick's decline isn't really a concern.</p>
<p>Of greater concern is his bat. Kendrick has always been a bat-first player, and he'll get paid to be an above-average bat. If you look at his similarity scores, three names show up quite a bit: <span>Placido Polanco</span>, <span>Omar Infante</span>, and Aaron Hill. Out of those three, only Polanco has had a finished career. His age-31 season was also the best out of the three, and was in fact a career year. But he dropped off fairly quickly thereafter, posting an OPS+ over 100 only in his age 32 season, and slashing .284/.332/.370 for an OPS+ of 88 thereafter. Polanco was also better with the glove than is Kendrick. If you look at only the next three seasons (assuming Kendrick can be signed to a three year deal) the numbers are a bit better: .296/.340/.400 with an OPS+ of 95. As Polanco played in an era of offensive inflation, I'd hazard that OPS+ might be about the ceiling for Kendrick, but those unadjusted rate stats are going to be a good bit lower.</p>
<p>Do I need to detail the downfall of Infante or Hill? We complain about Hill, yet his OPS+ since turning 32 is 78, respectable compared to Infante's 64. (Come to think of it, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.royalsreview.com/">Royals</a> might well agree to a Hill-Infante swap, but let's all hope that doesn't happen.) Kendrick has pretty much always been better with the bat than Infante, but still, that's the floor.</p>
<p>I anticipate Kendrick would command at least 3/$40 million, very possibly more. In the expansion era, a grand total of 31 second baseman have had at least one season with an OPS+ of 100 or higher from age 32-34. Only seven posted that number in all three seasons (<span>Ian Kinsler</span> has a chance to be the eighth next year.) Out of those seven, Joe Morgan is in the Hall of Fame, Lou Whitaker (and possibly <span>Jeff Kent</span>) should be, <span>Bret Boone</span> was likely juicing, and <span>Ray Durham</span> was injured nearly constantly. Basically, there's a chance of Kendrick posting that kind of offensive numbers, but the chances of his falling off a cliff are pretty good. His peak wasn't quite as high as Hill's peak, so if he were to fall the same distance, he could wind up worse offensively than Hill.</p>
<p>Finally, look at the On-Base percentage. Kendrick's career figure of .333 isn't terrible, but isn't exactly good, either. He surpassed that career figure a bit last year, at .336. Aaron Hill, through his age-31 season, had an OBP of .329. He's been sub-.300 the last couple of years, but showed some promise last year, bouncing back a bit (as far as getting on base was concerned) to post an OBP of .316 in the second half of last season.</p>
<p>Yes, Kendrick might help the team in the immediate. But since it would require a multiple-year commitment with very little chance of him maintaining production over the life of the contract, the team might be in better shape hoping that Hill (who is still superior to Kendrick defensively) can produce at his second-half levels last year (.256/.316/.383) and for <span>Phil Gosselin</span> and Chris Owings doing well in support of him. That would only require one year of over-paying Hill, and not (potentially) three or even four of overpaying Kendrick. Basically, I'd rather be patient at second base (knowing that there is always the potential to make a move at the deadline if the team <i>is</i> in contention) than throw money now at a player who has every chance of not being worth it next year, let alone down the road. The "competitive window" is supposed to be for the next three years. So I'd rather try to get a player who can contribute for all three, and Kendrick's chances of doing that are pretty small.</p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2016/1/21/10806400/further-developments-at-second-basepreston.salisbury2016-01-05T10:00:10-05:002016-01-05T10:00:10-05:00Diamondbacks Discussing Howie Kendrick?
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<figcaption>Jayne-Kamin Oncea-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>With a clear need to upgrade the 2B position, the Diamondbacks are looking at a top free agent.</p> <p><span>The Diamondbacks started the offseason with a bang, signing Zack Greinke away from the Dodgers and then sending over a ton of talent to the Braves for Shelby Miller. It's been quiet ever since, partially due to the fact they're near their payroll limit already. The team still has a net negative value at the 2B position between Chris Owings and Aaron Hill. With Jamie Westbrook likely a season and a half away at the minimum, the Dbacks could bank on Owings and Hill be a net zero value. </span><span>The Diamondbacks do have an in-house options at the position with top prospect Brandon Drury, who is a converted 3B. </span></p>
<p>If the Diamondbacks want to go the free agent route, there is Howie Kendrick. Right now, the <a target="_blank" href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/01/diamondbacks-ongoing-discussions-howie-kendrick.html">organization is discussin</a>g whether to sign him or not. Kendrick is a proven option and is definitely an upgrade over Owings and Hill. However, the Diamondbacks will forfeit the 40th pick in the draft to sign him. The move from Los Angeles to Phoenix should help Kendrick at the plate since Chase Field is heaven for gap hitters. There should be an uptick in his offense, assuming no major decline in his bat. Kendrick will be 32 in 2016, so you have to be on the lookout for that.</p>
<p>This is the 3-year snapshot of Kendrick's productivity:</p>
<table border="0" width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Year</td>
<td>Age</td>
<td>PA</td>
<td>OPS+</td>
<td>wRC+</td>
<td>ISO</td>
<td>dWAR</td>
<td>oWAR</td>
<td>bWAR</td>
<td>fWAR</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2013</td>
<td>29</td>
<td>513</td>
<td>118</td>
<td>117</td>
<td>.142</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>3.5</td>
<td>3.4</td>
<td>2.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2014</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>674</td>
<td>116</td>
<td>115</td>
<td>.104</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>5.3</td>
<td>4.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>495</td>
<td>107</td>
<td>109</td>
<td>.114</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>2.4</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>2.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>*Stats from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference</p>
<p>In terms of a free agent contract, the Diamondbacks should not go for more than 3 years if they do sign him. I believe Chase Field will lead to a larger ISO number since it will lead to more doubles with the deep gaps in center. Since OPS+ and wRC+ are league adjusted metrics, the Diamondbacks will be getting a above average hitter for the first year of that deal. I do expect decline with age, so he'll go from a 2.5 WAR/600 PA player to about 1.5 by year three, assuming a 0.5 WAR/600 PA decline. That adds up to a max of 6.0 WAR. I'm assuming that position player WAR is worth $7M in the free agent market. That adds up to a 3/$42M deal for the Diamondbacks. In my opinion, they should not go above $45M to sign him.</p>
<p>Honestly, I'm not in favor of a move like this but I do understand the motivation behind it. I'd rather give Brandon Drury a shot at getting the job, because I believe he will outproduce Chris Owings, Aaron Hill, and Phil Gosselin. I'm not confident he can outproduce Kendrick in 2016. However, long term he's a better option since he's only 23. If Drury's bat doesn't deliver, then the team should look for an upgrade on the trade market.</p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2016/1/5/10711746/diamondbacks-having-internal-discussions-about-2b-howie-kendrickMichael McDermott