AZ Snake Pit - All PostsAn unofficial Arizona Diamondbacks community and bloghttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47033/azsnakepit_f.png2024-03-27T20:00:00-04:00http://www.azsnakepit.com/rss/current/2024-03-27T20:00:00-04:002024-03-27T20:00:00-04:00An Interview with Zac Gallen
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<img alt="Arizona Diamondbacks v San Diego Padres" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4sNe9mHLJtGd8oIdO7cd3YDuxj4=/0x0:5472x3648/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73237644/2085354339.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Zac Gallen has partnered with Shamrock Farms Rockin’ Protein to launch a new product called the Gallen Gallon, a gallon sized jug of their protein shake. As part of their roll out, Zac sat down with us to chat about Rockin Protein and the upcoming season.</p> <p id="57U4TG"><em>I would like to thank Zac Gallen for sitting down with me and Rockin’ Protein for setting the meeting up! It is greatly appreciated! Below is my interview with Gallen, lightly edited for conciseness.</em></p>
<p id="uC48XU">ISH95: Why did you choose to partner with Rockin’ Protein?</p>
<p id="l5YUQh">GALLEN: It doesn’t really have any, you know, it doesn’t have the chalky after taste like a lot of other protein drinks out there. sure the fresh milk that it’s made with, you know, from shamrock farms, you know, is a separator for sure, so yeah, for me, the taste is huge, you know, the right amount of protein in each bottle, you know, it helps me get through a long season. So, yeah, the partnership seemed like a no brainer to me.</p>
<p id="MnqoKr">ISH95: You mentioned taste. What’s your favorite flavor?</p>
<p id="iaTFXZ">GALLEN: I’m a big chocolate guy, to be honest with you. I got a sweet tooth, so chocolates is my favorite.</p>
<p id="q8JRS5">ISH95: Well, it’s chocolate milk right? You can’t go wrong.</p>
<p id="Amcrhh">GALLEN: Exactly. I like to dabble in the other flavors. I’ve got a vanilla, I’ve got a strawberry, but I stick to the chocolate mostly.</p>
<p id="vh1Iyb">ISH95: So tell me, what is the Gallen Gallon?</p>
<p id="9sKHBk">GALLEN: Yeah, the Gallen Gallon. I actually got it right here. [holds up a gallon jug of Rockin’ Protein shake] 320 grams of protein. It’s going to be available nationwide April 1st. So we’re excited for that to hit the shelves, and yeah, it’s pretty sweet.</p>
<p id="ZodmzH">ISH95: Alright, well, I have to ask, I saw on Instagram a couple of weeks ago, you filled out a [March Madness] bracket with the team. How is that holding up so far?</p>
<p id="O24f9l">GALLEN: Yeah, the bracket I did that day was no research, nothing, just by the seat of my pants. And I’m in the middle of the pack right now in our D-Backs one. And I did a bracket where I decided to over-complicate and do too much research, and I’m towards the bottom. So I still got all of my Final Four left, and I want to say I have my entire Elite Eight, but I’m not possible. I’m not sure on that, so you don’t want me to, but yeah, we got all final four left, so I think that’s a good sign, so we’ll see.</p>
<p id="Dp4rLF">ISH95: This spring, the team has consciously been managing your workload. What has been the biggest difference this year compared to a traditional spring training for you?</p>
<p id="PGtelI">GALLEN: Yeah, this year, obviously a little bit different coming off of the workload from last year, like you said, and playing in November. So we had kind of set out, honestly, before the season even started, that I wasn’t going to stop throwing this off season. I was just going to keep the arm moving once the season was over. Then, with everything that happened in the innings in the workload and playing longer, it just seemed kind of like a no-brainer. So for me, it was kind of this slow build-up, but it wasn’t really rushed. I feel like in the last couple years, I tried to take time off and allow my body to recover, and I feel like I was rushed. So this year kind of was able to build up at a slower pace, a little bit smarter, allowed me to work on some things, and then we delayed getting the games, obviously. But I was still throwing my BPs. I was still getting out there. I was still getting on the slope. So in terms of it being delayed, it was more we were just kind of delaying the compete mode. I was still putting in the work, still getting after it in terms of playing catch and stuff like that. So, yeah, so far, I feel pretty good. Body feels really solid.</p>
<p id="EZtSh6">ISH95: One thing that’s been debated, especially amongst fans, and I think I’ve even seen some players mention it, is the length of spring training in general. Would you take anything you’ve learned from your different build-up and apply it to a potential format change for spring training?</p>
<p id="I3ZilZ">GALLEN: Yeah, I mean, I go back and forth on spring training. I think there gets to be a kind of a little dead period, maybe like a 10-day window, maybe two weeks where you’re kind of, you’re starting to build up, you know, four or five innings, and you want to just have a be a real game. You know, you’re trying to obviously still work on some things, but once you’re as a starting pitcher, at least once you’re getting a four or five innings, you’re feeling pretty close to getting into a real game. And you just kind of want that, you know, you want the taste of the real thing. So, yeah, maybe, I don’t know, maybe shorten it up just a little bit. But at the same time, it allows for scenarios like this where I was able to kind of delay the build up a little bit. So, yeah, there’s just some, sometimes where it gets a little monotonous. So, I don’t know, we’ll see if the league has any plans to term it down or what?</p>
<p id="GHHhwo">ISH95: No, fair enough, fair enough. Each of the past two years you’ve been able to put together an impressive scoreless sitting streak. What do you think allows you to get in such a groove for an extended period of time?</p>
<p id="QxsfyL">GALLEN: Yeah, I think I’m very diligent about my work, about more specifically playing catch and how the ball’s coming out of my hand. So, I work really hard at being able to be just to be able to repeat my delivery and be able to repeat that feel. And I feel like when I’m able to do that, I’m super consistent. So, I think that’s kind of where you see me get on just kind of those runs. And, yeah, I think it’s just a lot of work, a lot of it just being very disciplined in that and making sure everything’s repeatable. Because things are repeatable, I can throw pretty much all my pitches in any town, any location. And I think that gives me a lot of success.</p>
<p id="Wnn4CV">ISH95: Alright, awesome. I know I for one enjoy watching you when you’re pitching in those grooves. It’s always fun to watch. Fans always circle series on the schedule that they are most looking forward to for a variety of reasons. Do you find yourself doing the same? And if so, what makes a series grab your attention?</p>
<p id="DH36Jz">GALLEN: I don’t normally circle any series really. You know, once the season gets going, you’re kind of just showing up every day, going to work. My family and my girlfriend, they joke that I don’t even know what day it is. Most of the time, like Tuesday, Friday, Thursday, I have no idea. So, same thing with the schedule, I’m usually like, who are we playing? But the ones, if I had to give you an answer, any division, divisional matchup is usually more because it’s a team, your division, you’re playing them 13, 14 times. I don’t know if the exact number is. Yeah, those divisional matchups are ones that we keep an eye on. So, yeah, those are always exciting.</p>
<p id="ydIWW1">ISH95: All right. Now, this is a purely hypothetical question. If hypothetically the team were to sign a new pitcher to the rotation, what would that do for your view of the season and the vibe in the clubhouse right now?</p>
<p id="oA8wS3">GALLEN: Obviously, with the injury to E-Rod, that’s leaving a gap for us. But we have guys ready to step up, Tommy and Ryan Nelson, guys like that. Jarvis, but yet to sign another arm would be great. I think it would definitely energize the clubhouse. But I don’t want to say faith, but kind of show the guys in the clubhouse that the front office management, the ownership is realizing that this is a window to win right now. So, yeah, I think it just kind of, it just energizes the players even more to know that they’re putting the chips in, you know, they’re going all in and seeing what could happen.</p>
<p id="ygacA6">ISH95: Awesome. Awesome. Well, we’ve got about five minutes left, so I will hit you with my final question. What achievement in life are you most proud of?</p>
<p id="IO5INA">GALLEN: Achievement in life. Oh. I don’t know. Oh, man, that’s tough.</p>
<p id="6RYg42">GALLEN: Yeah, I wasn’t thinking about this. I’m trying to think. Yeah, I don’t. I’ll give you one. Not serious. I don’t have any in terms of like a charitable award. It would be like that if I had one those, it’d be that. But I was in sixth grade, I think it was. I was in fifth, sixth grade somewhere around there, and I was the, I got all the way to the, I don’t know, I was like the regional free throw shooting champion. Hey, that was a big deal back when I was a kid. I think I did it three years, and then one year I lost in the regionals, one year I lost in the States, and then I think one year I lost in like the first round. So to go in the regionals or whatever that was, so yeah, that was a pretty cool accomplishment as a kid.</p>
<p id="dHiyR9">ISH95: That’s awesome. Did you play a lot of basketball or just the free throw shooting?</p>
<p id="xabjno">GALLEN: Yeah, I played basketball from organized from third grade until my freshman year of high school. I hung it up after my freshman year of high school.</p>
<p id="JwXPOH">GALLEN: I hadn’t had my growth for yet, and baseball was looking more like a brighter future. So I decided I wasn’t going to play after that. But yeah, that was my off season break every year as a kid. My parents stressed one sport at one time, so it was kind of a way for my arm to take a rest and learn some different movements, different kind of skills, try to become a better athlete. So yeah, basketball was my winner sport back in the day.</p>
<p id="jtLu4p">ISH95: Alright, well that’s a heck of a hobby, but I’m glad you chose baseball in the end. Zac, thank you, and I look forward to seeing what happens starting tomorrow. </p>
<p id="ZQhCLC"><em>Special thanks to OG Snakepitter asteroid for assistance with editing.</em></p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2024/3/27/24113819/an-interview-with-zac-gallenImstillhungry952024-03-27T16:00:00-04:002024-03-27T16:00:00-04:00Arizona Diamondbacks: April confidence poll
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<img alt="Cincinnati Reds v. Philadelphia Phillies" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/MvEx8w2GE8IY8mx-xOKz-vzvYec=/1868x2739:5956x5464/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73237162/1258342009.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Steve Boyle/MLB Photos via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>On the eve of the season, how are we feeling? </p> <h4 id="rH8UsA">March results</h4>
<p id="Q8c654">Last time we checked in, spring training was kinda sorta beginning to get under way, with the early stages of the position battles just warming up. But there was still not very much actual data to go on, with barely a week’s worth of games, and as usual, anyone you know was typically gone by the end of the fifth inning. Unsurprisingly therefore, we did not have a great deal of change in the numbers between the beginning of February and the start of March. Here’s what we saw for the latter. </p>
<ul>
<li id="pbZWvf">2% - 1 (not confident in the slightest)</li>
<li id="DcQRoq">0% - 2</li>
<li id="18uCj8">1% - 3</li>
<li id="fPrPqC">2% - 4</li>
<li id="0sudBY">5% - 5</li>
<li id="m9NPfL">5% - 6</li>
<li id="A85TJD">33% - 7</li>
<li id="DUyvIG">25% - 8</li>
<li id="7RNxpb">16% - 9 (very, very, VERY confident)</li>
</ul>
<p id="PPeNl0">An up-tick in the votes in the bottom half, the 1-5 categories combined almost doubling - though that probably makes it sound rather more dramatic an increase than saying it went from 5.3% to 10.1%. This largely came at the expense of the “6” category, which dropped from 10.5% to 5.0%. While this might suggest a decline in confidence overall, on the other hand, the “9” category <em>increased</em>, notching up from 13.8% to 16.2%. All this slight shuffling back and forth resulted in... Well, not very much, as far as the overall confidence average is concerned. with a drop of about one-tenth of a point, going down from 7.42 to <strong>7.30</strong>. It’s the first time in survey history we’ve been above a seven on Opening Day. </p>
<p id="SMpFaB">Below, you can see the breakdown for the past 12 polls’ results, followed by the line graph showing the trends over this and previous seasons. </p>
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<h4 id="Z52KRU">April poll</h4>
<p id="B5j5hJ">For the first time in SnakePit history, the D-backs arrive on Opening Day as the defending National League champions. But spring hasn’t been without issues, most notably on the health front, with Eduardo Rodriguez, Paul Sewald and Randal Grichuk starting the season on the injured list. How much does that dampen confidence in another run to the playoffs? Or do strong spring performances from Ryne Nelson, Ketel Marte and Blaze Alexander inspire hope to counter such concerns? Then there’s the shock signing of Jordan Montgomery. With the first game of the 2024 campaign to come, all these theoreticals are about to become very real, so where do you sit as we get ready to play ball?</p>
<p id="9b9c03">That would be what the poll is for. As ever, feel free to explain your choice in the comments, especially if it has changed from the previous one. </p>
<div id="Ytgf5J"><div data-anthem-component="poll:12290388"></div></div>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2024/3/27/24112973/arizona-diamondbacks-april-confidence-pollJim McLennan2024-03-27T14:00:00-04:002024-03-27T14:00:00-04:00How many wins for the 2024 Diamondbacks?
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<img alt="1930s FORTUNE TELLER" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/nnB5r4niKKSthdQd1SWqJEsiaUg=/0x1328:4552x4363/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73236795/1194491464.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by H. Armstrong Roberts/ClassicStock/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Our annual opportunity for the SnakePit writers to cover themselves in glory. Or not. </p> <p id="RZQvNe"><strong>Disclaimer: everything which follows was written before the sudden appearance of a wild Jordan Montgomery on our roster yesterday. In the light of that, you probably want to bump up everyone’s projections below by 2-3 wins. </strong></p>
<p id="f1us9M">We polled <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/2023/3/29/23660426/how-many-wins-for-the-2023-diamondbacks">the writers last year</a>, and both myself and Dano In Tucson nailed the win total for the D-backs at 84. We’re back to defend our co-title this year, and the other 12 members of the SnakePit team have also thrown their hats into the ring for the season which begins tomorrow night at Chase Field. Here’s what we had to say, with all submissions sent independently, to avoid copying from someone’s else’s work. :) </p>
<h4 id="EqCXOA">Spencer O’Gara - 86 </h4>
<p id="JaYrQC">This team is about the same as last year with some floor added. Last season we got unbelievable health luck which I expect doesn’t happen again in 2024. Additionally, I don’t expect Perdomo to replicate his first half success of 2023 either. All in all, that leads me to a slightly better record than last season. </p>
<h4 id="oTLZRy">C.Wesley Baier- 90</h4>
<p id="0MU0nE">The team patched most of the holes in the offseason, and there’s tons of room for growth from the younger players. </p>
<h4 id="xkncCJ">Steak85 - 85</h4>
<p id="aKuCyB">Most of the holes were plugged, so why not more improvement? Simple. You can’t expect that many bounces going your way in consecutive years. Yes, the team should be better. But expecting Corbin Carroll and Gabi Moreno to repeat incredible seasons might be a bit much, and there’s still question marks at shortstop, in the bullpen, and at the back of the rotation. Plus, while the top-two starters are really good, they also pitched A LOT more than they ever have when you include postseason innings.</p>
<p id="26jRBh">I can talk myself into 90 wins. If a lot goes right, maybe even 92. I can talk myself into this being a 75-80 win team. I think 90 is more likely than 75, so I eventually settled on 85, a one win improvement over last year and likely enough for a wild card spot.</p>
<h4 id="7N7kkC">ISH95 - 95 </h4>
<p id="YgZ7Yj">And they win the division on tie breakers. I mean, hey, unfettered optimism worked out pretty well for me last season, right?</p>
<p id="Rc4JPQ">This was a good team last season. They had ups and downs, a lot of which I think can be contributed to the collective youth of the team. This season, though, they have that experience, and it’s hard to argue that Hazen didn’t address nearly everything on the checklist this past off season. We have an actual third baseman, we at least have an approximation of a DH, we got more starting pitching depth. This is a good team that got better.</p>
<p id="mI8csx">Meanwhile, the Dodgers 1 and 2 pitchers have never pitched a full season in MLB. With a little bit of IL luck, this is going to be a very good season to be a Diamondbacks fan.</p>
<p id="zjMqgw">[Update post Montgomery] 98 and they take the division outright.</p>
<h4 id="Xh334G">Justin27 - 85</h4>
<p id="r6feUh">Each year I buy Baseball Mogul, at the time of me writing this only the Beta version is out. I thought it would be interesting to sim the 2024 season without human intervention 10 times and see what happens. The high win total was 93, the low was 78, and the average of the ten seasons was 84.7 wins. The Dbacks won the Division twice, got an NLCS appearance and also got beaten twice by the Dodgers in the NLDS. Four of the seasons were no playoffs, including a year where they finished the season 2-7 and got swept in the last weekend of the season by the last team in. </p>
<p id="V0KFVP">Jim can delete this part if he wants (<em>nah, all good!)</em>, but the Braves had 4 WS appearances, and the Phillies 3. The AL was much more eclectic, with only the Rays having multiple (2) appearances. </p>
<h4 id="oF2CYA">Steven Burt - 82</h4>
<p id="j78Tqy">I’ve generally liked all of the off-season moves as each of them attempt to correct a glaring issue that popped up during the postseason run. However, we’re now one year further along with this blend of old and young core of players, and last year we were pretty fortunate to not have any major injuries to that same core. I’m predicting some slippage from last year’s performance, especially older players like Walker and Kelly, with some general regression happening to Suarez/Marte/Gurriel. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities that the team returns to pre-All Star break performance (52-39), but I’ll keep my predictions conservative, hoping to be surprised again like many of us were last year.</p>
<h4 id="jIHfnk">1AZfan1 - 85 </h4>
<p id="3Jfwvq">The 82-88 win neighborhood seems about right, but unless they hit the tippy top of that projection, I don’t think they’ll return to the playoffs. Really hope I’m wrong. </p>
<h4 id="obh0mH">mcbenseigs - 89 </h4>
<p id="1f4dqd">I am bullish that the additions Hazen and Co made will shore up some of the weaknesses of the 2023 edition of the D-Backs and that some of the youngsters improve in their second years. </p>
<h4 id="TKkc3O">Makakilo - 86</h4>
<p id="E4gtvW">My prediction is that the Diamondbacks win 86 games, with 761 runs scored and 734 runs allowed. My prediction built on last season as a starting point. The most significant upgrades will be at third base, designated hitter, and the rotation. Four unpredictable X-factors that could cause me to update my prediction:</p>
<ul>
<li id="AwuPR4">1-run games.</li>
<li id="AnhNWX">Breakouts.</li>
<li id="0hlN5n">Injuries (and Eduardo Rodriguez’s recovery from Lat injury).</li>
<li id="1qIhoc">The bullpen.</li>
</ul>
<p id="IK2Y9v">Details were posted on 26 March.</p>
<h4 id="WwYMwc">Jeffern51 - 92</h4>
<p id="p2NeKG">One of the biggest advantages the 2024 Dbacks will have is a full season of Paul Sewald. In 2023, the Dbacks recorded 27 blown saves and were recording saves only at a 62% clip. Sewald’s save percentage was tied with Josh Hader at 87%. He should also get ample opportunities with Ginkel pitching a full season in front of him. </p>
<p id="L6ubU7">The additions of Suarez and Pederson/Grichuk drastically lengthen the lineup. An argument could be made for Suarez batting in the 4 or the 5 hole for a contending team like he did with the Mariners last season. He will likely open the season batting 7th in this revamped lineup. Not to mention batting 8th Thomas has 20/20 ceiling and our 9 hole hitter Perdomo was an allstar last season. This is the deepest lineup I can remember as a Dbacks fan since the very beginning. </p>
<p id="ZETVEn">The starting rotation is still anchored by one of the best 1-2 combo’s in the national league in Gallen and Kelly. One of the biggest x-factors for this team is whether or not Pfaadt can repeat his playoff performance in which he looked like a borderline ace. I predict he will continue to develop given his deep arsenal and the fact he has overachieved expectations since he got drafted. Eduardo Rodriguez going down with the lat injury is definitely worrisome, but when he is on he could certainly be one of the best 3-4 starters in MLB. I also believe in what Ryne Nelson has done this spring due to the swing and miss he has added to his profile by working hard this offseason to develop his secondaries. He is a breakout candidate to watch for. </p>
<p id="ts189s">I have made it this far without even talking about Corbin Carroll further highlighting just how deep this team is with exciting talent. You could even make the argument that he may not even be the team’s best hitter in 2024 with Ketel Marte looking like his 2019 self in the postseason and so far this spring. This team legitimately could very well have 2 MVP candidates. </p>
<p id="XiVTRc">I recognize this is a very glass half full prediction, however an improvement of 8 wins seems very doable given the relative lack of a weakness on this very well balanced team that just gained a lot of confidence. </p>
<h4 id="jV2lyk">James Attwood - 84</h4>
<p id="lW2JWf">This team is, on paper at least, better than last season’s team. It does still have issues with depth though, so they will need to rely on staying healthy to continue to compete. 84 wins gives them a bump up over .500 but also allows for them to have a slump or two due to injuries.</p>
<h4 id="Ex2ysL">DBacksEurope - 84</h4>
<p id="a3ZOpb">I basically put a predicted win total that I think will just push the Diamondbacks in the play-offs, but I think anything that ranges between 78-86 is an acceptable prediction. Competition in the NL West will be fierce and it obviously does not help that the Dodgers have become the team to beat in the entire MLB with Ohtani on their roster. I guess we will lose many against the Dodgers and that lowers the predicted win total. We should not focus on them though, but on the Padres, Giants and make sure we do not lose too many games against the Rockies. In general, the National League looks quite balanced, much more than the American League, that is why 84 wins might be enough. Hopefully the IL will respect our players, we really cannot lose that many because the depth isn’t great on certain positions and we’d rather hope our young pitchers step up this season. If that happens, we do not have to worry about reaching the play-offs. </p>
<h4 id="ugZA6w">Dano_in_Tucson - 90</h4>
<p id="6bSjTR">Rotation should be a lot more solid, and the black hole of suck that for years has been 3rd base should be improved. Besides, we went to the World Series last year, so I’m feeling at least guardedly optimistic.</p>
<h4 id="Si17w8">Jim McLennan 82 </h4>
<p id="9cLc9z">I think the D-backs’ front office did a decent job of addressing starting pitching, third-base and the DH spot, with savvy acquisitions. However, the arms race in the NL West ramped up, and it’s not difficult to imagine a situation where everyone bar the Rockies are above .500. That’s a lot of games against tough opposition. I also wonder if our rotational depth is going to be enough for the grind of a 162-game season: there’s potential for a steep fall-off. However, I’m hopeful the bullpen will be better - even average would be a big improvement, <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/2024/3/23/24107282/2024-fangraphs-diamondbacks-projection-relief-pitchers">as discussed</a>. But after becoming the first NL pennant winner to be outscored, the D-backs will need to improve on both sides of the ball, just to make it back to the playoffs.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="7a0Zes">
<p id="SAbjgp">That’s an average of 86.7 wins, with a range of 82 to 95. It would be close to a three-win improvement over the 84 wins managed last year, and you feel that should be enough for a wild-card spot. It is a few wins more than most projections, e.g. Fangraphs has the D-backs at 83 wins, and the Las Vegas sports books are around 83.5. But then, that’s why we’re fans! Optimism! Well, except me and Mr. Burt, and in my case I’ve a feeling we used up all our good luck last October... But this year, I also sent the form out on Twitter to see if any fans wanted to put forward their predictions. Here are some of the responses which I received, with an average across the responses of 88.4 wins - so slightly more optimistic.</p>
<ul>
<li id="5yyGpK">
<strong>Ryan - 92</strong>. “I think a lot of the young guys take a step forward, and now they have had a taste of a postseason run and will be hungry. Hazen will be aggressive at the trade deadline too bolstering the team as well. I think it will be a fun season, with a sense of urgency that we have not seen for a while.”</li>
<li id="0Z9jDb">
<strong>TheSarosCycle - 94.</strong> “+5 wins for actually having a closer, another +5 because why not”</li>
<li id="6NfELb">
<strong>Logan Burlew - 92</strong>. “The Dbacks added some home runs to their lineup this offseason. We also start the season with a top 10 rotation, which feels really really bizarre to type but is absolutely true. You add those two things and sprinkle in the power of friendship and this becomes Lovullo’s (expletive) dangerous team. Yes - the whole NL west became more dangerous and yes, it will be an absolute bloodbath. That said, the team very recently performed against some absolute knockout teams and have only gotten better. I’m very optimistic about 2024. Floor of 86 games; ceiling of 96 - barring bizarre runs or injuries.”</li>
<li id="RiCJpX">
<strong>Ruth - 84</strong>. “I would say more but their division is so good. If you put the teams in the Central, I’d say four teams are better than the best team in that division!”</li>
<li id="gOsdEJ">
<strong>Hannibal4467 - 86</strong>. “My 5 year-old granddaughter chose this from a range of 80-90 wins. Going with the Chaos Theory, mostly.”</li>
</ul>
<p id="ft00VG">For those who didn’t respond, you still have a chance. Below is the poll with ten blocks of win totals - but if you want full credit, post an exact number in the comments and tell us why you decided on it!</p>
<div id="T14Vf8"><div data-anthem-component="poll:12290264"></div></div>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2024/3/27/24112838/how-many-wins-for-the-2024-diamondbacksThe SnakePit Staff2024-03-27T12:29:14-04:002024-03-27T12:29:14-04:00My Win Prediction for the Diamondbacks
<figure>
<img alt="Torey Lovullo and Mike Hazen." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/XTHFhaBWDVEl51vfcxCj96_6FGo=/0x0:3990x2660/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73235317/1730486451.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Torey Lovullo and Mike Hazen. | Photo by Elsa/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It builds on last season as a starting point.</p> <blockquote><p id="OLJJIW">Note: This was written before the Diamondbacks signed Jordan Montgomery. A new section was added: The impact of acquiring Jordan Montgomery.</p></blockquote>
<h2 id="cO7QEW"><strong>The Impact of acquiring Jordan Montgomery.</strong></h2>
<blockquote><p id="nQpUDL">Hopefully Montgomery joins the rotation in April, and Rodriguez joins the rotation in May. After that happens, the Diamondbacks have a great rotation AND great depth in the minors. That’s a winning combination. — <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/2024/3/26/24113116/dbacks-sign-jordan-montgomery-to-a-1-year-deal#comments">Makakilo in comments section</a></p></blockquote>
<p id="ZSbN7p">Last season, how well will Jordan Montgomery pitch? Last season had three parts:</p>
<ul>
<li id="ujgIQO">Cardinals 3.42 ERA in 121 innings</li>
<li id="WHgz3T">Rangers 2.79 ERA in 67.2 innings</li>
<li id="O1gCNV">Playoffs 2.67 ERA in 33.2 innings</li>
</ul>
<p id="hDYtX5">Although ZiPS projected him with a 3.84, my view is he will pitch better than that. My view is based on how well he pitched for the Rangers, who had a much better defense supporting him. The Fielding Bible provided the following measures of team defense:</p>
<ul>
<li id="1u0li6">Cardinals, negative 8 DRS, ranking 20th in the Majors.</li>
<li id="dAXboU">Rangers, 36 DRS, ranking 6th in the Majors.</li>
<li id="wpYDxS">Diamondbacks, 41 DRs, ranking 4th in the Majors.</li>
</ul>
<p id="KkRCJn">In addition, there will be a synergistic impact of having a great rotation with great depth in the minors. Part of the synergy will be enhancing the positive mental attitudes of the Diamondbacks, and part of the synergy will be more consistent excellence capturing more opportunities to win.</p>
<p id="gF7GmZ">Runs allowed by the Diamondbacks will be reduced because Montgomery’s ERA will be below 3 due to support from the Diamondbacks defense, and due to the synergistic impacts. My predicted runs allowed will drop from 734 to 702. With an unchanged 761 runs scored, the updated Pythagorean calculated wins is 87. With the same adjustment for wins beyond that calculation, my updated prediction is 89 wins.</p>
<p id="VdAgVI"><strong>Updated Summary.</strong> This season, my prediction is that the Diamondbacks win 89 games, with 761 runs scored and 702 runs allowed. </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="cwy7js">
<p id="wQ2ecH"><strong>[pre-Montgomery] Summary:</strong> This season, my prediction is that the Diamondbacks win 86 games, with 761 runs scored and 734 runs allowed. Details follow:</p>
<h2 id="fftn2I"><strong>Introduction.</strong></h2>
<p id="NXhOrr"><strong>Starting Point.</strong> With the exception of a few acquired players who are upgrades at their position, this season will feature the same players as last season. The most significant upgrades will be at third base, designated hitter, and the rotation.</p>
<p id="PTLFPu"><strong>My Approach.</strong> Start with the assumption that without the upgrades, the Diamondbacks would have the same runs scored and runs allowed as last season, then estimate the impacts of the three most significant upgraded positions (third base, designated hitter, and rotation), then calculate wins via the Pythagorean formula used by Baseball Reference. The final step is to predict, for the Diamondbacks, how many games they will win beyond that calculation.</p>
<h2 id="Er4U0a">
<strong>Unpredictable X-factors.</strong> </h2>
<p id="1At9W2">During the season, unpredictable factors that could change my prediction are:</p>
<p id="V6djjR"><strong>1-run games.</strong> Last season in 1-run games, the Diamondbacks were 21-21. If their record in 1-run games varies significantly from equality, my prediction would change. On the optimistic side, as a Diamondback, closer Paul Sewald entered a game six times with the score tied or the Diamondbacks ahead by 1 run. Five of those six times he allowed zero runs. On the pessimistic side, Paul Sewald has a grade 2 lat strain and will likely miss a month or more of the season. </p>
<p id="HMILZc"><strong>Breakouts.</strong> A young Diamondback could have a breakout season. Last season Corbin Carroll had a breakout season and won rookie of the year. Which player will break out is unpredictable. One position player possibility (out of several) is that Jordan Lawlar breaks out. One pitching possibility (out of several) is that Brandon Pfaadt breaks out. A breakout season would increase my predicted wins.</p>
<p id="fqwF5H"><strong>Injuries. </strong>Although the Diamondbacks have more depth than last season, this prediction assumes no significant injuries to key players. A significant injury to a key player would lower my predicted wins. Optimistically, the lat tightness that Eduardo Rodriquez experienced on 19 March will be the worst injury of the season. If he fully recovers and misses less than a month of the season, that would increase my predicted wins. </p>
<p id="9w9ZDB"><strong>The Bullpen.</strong> Last season, the bullpen ranked about average in the Majors (ranking 14th in wins-above-average). Even with mostly the same pitchers, bullpen performance is unpredictable. During the season, if their performance is significantly above or below average, it could change my prediction. </p>
<h2 id="9DJv80"><strong>The Path to My Prediction.</strong></h2>
<p id="y0JR43"><strong>The Starting Point.</strong> Last season, the Diamondbacks scored 746 runs and allowed 761 runs. Baseball Reference’s Pythagorean formula tells me that was consistent with 79.5 wins. In reality, the Diamondbacks won 84 games.</p>
<p id="N1fyLH"><strong>Impacts on Runs Scored.</strong> Two impacts on runs scored follow.</p>
<p id="RJihb1"><em>Eduardo Suarez at third base. </em>With a projected 615 PAs by Eduardo Suarez, I expect 11 more runs scored by the Diamondbacks compared to last season. The stability and reliability of one player with most of the PAs at third base will be better than last season with six players who had third base PAs. </p>
<p id="YDdn9l"><em>Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk at designated hitter.</em> With Pederson, Grichuk (who may miss some of April), and Gurriel Jr. having the lion’s share of PAs at DH (with some games having the DH position filled with everyday players who need a rest day to avoid injury), I expect 4 more runs scored by the Diamondbacks compared to last season. </p>
<p id="JGlyo5">With those two positions upgraded, I predict that next season the Diamondbacks will score 761 runs. That is realistic for two reasons:</p>
<ul>
<li id="CFiBMv">761 runs scored will be 1.7% above last season’s league average. That is a reasonable prediction for the Diamondbacks.</li>
<li id="zmTgOs">Although the Diamondbacks fell short, last season my prediction was that the Diamondbacks would score 765 runs. The Diamondbacks had potential to score 765 runs last season, but did not.</li>
</ul>
<p id="mGqA0S"><strong>Impacts on Runs Allowed.</strong> This season the rotation will be better. One bold assumption is that Gallen and Kelly do not regress. The impacts follow:</p>
<p id="FHA7j3"><em>Eduardo Rodriguez in the rotation.</em> If his lat tightness had not shut him down for opening day, my view was that acquiring him would result in 15.6 less runs allowed. My revised view is that his injury will reduce his impact to 0.6 less runs allowed. </p>
<p id="MaIofC"><em>Improvement by subtraction.</em> Without Bumgarner, the Diamondbacks will allow 10.4 less runs. Without Davies, and with Rodriguez starting the season on the IL, there will be more innings for depth pitchers.</p>
<p id="woKzRn"><em>Better Depth Pitchers.</em> 16 less runs allowed by pitchers called up from minors to start games. Predict that Cristian Mena (acquired in the offseason) will be one of those pitchers who will shine. </p>
<p id="HChNZi">With those three improvements in the rotation, my prediction is 27 less runs allowed by starting pitchers. I assume that runs allowed by relief pitching will remain about the same. Therefore, I predict that total runs allowed will be 734 runs. </p>
<p id="5E10Pf"><strong>Pythagorean Calculation. </strong>The Pythagorean formula with 761 runs scored and 734 runs allowed predicts 83.7 wins. But that prediction needs one adjustment.</p>
<p id="MjBYxd"><strong>Regression toward the mean for wins beyond calculated. </strong>Last season, the Diamondbacks won 4.5 games beyond the Pythagorean calculation. In the long run that gap is unsustainable for the Diamondbacks. This season, I expect regression about halfway to having no gap. In other words, the Diamondbacks will win 2.3 games beyond the calculation. My final prediction is 86 wins.</p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2024/3/26/24106950/my-win-prediction-for-the-diamondbacksMakakilo2024-03-27T10:41:25-04:002024-03-27T10:41:25-04:00Snake Bytes 3/27: The Diamondbacks Did a Thing
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<img alt="World Series - Texas Rangers v Arizona Diamondbacks - Game Five" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Zo0yS8eJgZ7FYVmTDStoI0vw2Ok=/0x1593:2329x3146/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73236212/1769940900.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>Who had the Diamondbacks signing three of the top 15 free agents from this winter?</em></p> <h3 id="2fxKUy">Diamondbacks News</h3>
<p id="JZwlty"><a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/03/diamondbacks-to-sign-jordan-montgomery.html">Diamondbacks to Sign Jordan Montgomery</a><br>To address the issues created by the losses of Eduardo Rodriguez and Paul Sewald, the Arizona Diamondbacks went big, signing one of the best pitchers in this year’s free agent market to a short-term deal. Left-hander, Jordan Montgomery will slot into the Arizona rotation for the 2024 season and can vest a player option by making just 10 starts. The overall cost could max out around two years and $50 million. Additional bonus, there was no draft pick compensation tied to Montgomery.</p>
<p id="8r2qVY"><a href="https://www.mlb.com/dbacks/news/jordan-montgomery-d-backs-deal">Diamondbacks Land Montgomery</a><br>I’m pretty sure this is more or less what going all-in looks like.</p>
<p id="p7B6Ya"><strong>Arizona’s winter</strong></p>
<div id="ZBMphy">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Snakes have been ALIVE <br><br>Take a look at the <a href="https://twitter.com/Dbacks?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Dbacks</a> offseason signings ⬇️ <a href="https://t.co/8zUJxmqt8D">pic.twitter.com/8zUJxmqt8D</a></p>— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBONFOX/status/1772794968685359424?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 27, 2024</a>
</blockquote>
<script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div>
<p id="KE42XE"><a href="https://www.mlb.com/dbacks/news/rockies-d-backs-2024-opening-day-faq">Rockies vs Diamondbacks: Opening Day FAQ</a><br>Almost there.</p>
<p id="jPQqwz"><a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/brandon-pfaadt-sharp-in-final-spring-start">Pfaadt Sharp in Final Tune-Up</a><br>Despite the signing of Jordan Montgomery, Brandon Pfaadt’s hold on a rotation slot remains firm.</p>
<h3 id="GfUub7">Other Baseball News</h3>
<p id="sxCYcm"><a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-starting-rotation-no-1-15/">Positional Power Rankings: Rotation (1-15)</a><br>Something tells me that the addition of Jordan Montgomery to the rotation will lift the Diamondbacks from 13th, potentially into the top-10.</p>
<p id="onvdZM"><a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/39808087/mlb-opening-day-2024-passan-payroll-tiers-26-teams-12-playoff-spots">Payroll Tiers with a Majority of Teams Going for It</a> <strong>(ESPN+ Insider content)</strong><br>Payroll disparity is beginning to approach the previous all-time high. At the same time, more teams than ever are spending on payroll with an eye toward October baseball.</p>
<p id="7dnfDW"><a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39817568/dodgers-shohei-ohtani-authorities-contacted-theft">Shohei Ohtani’s Reps Not Expanding on Statement</a><br>Shohei Ohtani got in front of the cameras to deliver a prepared statement. Not included in the statement was mention of which authorities had been contacted regarding the theft.</p>
<p id="vhjYdO"><a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/where-top-100-mlb-prospects-will-begin-the-season-2024?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage">Where Every Top-100 Prospect will Start 2024</a><br>Lawlar’s stay in Reno could either be very short, or he may be there still when the team is making deadline decisions.</p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2024/3/27/24113484/snake-bytes-3-27-the-diamondbacks-did-a-thingJames Attwood2024-03-27T01:19:07-04:002024-03-27T01:19:07-04:00Surveying the Diamondbacks landscape after the Jordan Montgomery signing
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<img alt="World Series - Texas Rangers v Arizona Diamondbacks - Game Five" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ddgdrFIB9GGHLgRPbuPu-T3go6g=/0x191:2363x1766/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73235557/1769887021.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Harry How/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That was unexpected. </p> <p id="ntwhzS">There had been rumblings about the D-backs being among the suitors for the services of Jordan Montgomery. But with the team payroll already at an all-time high, these seemed to be implausible rumors. I mean, MLB Trade Rumors had him the #6 free agent on the market this winter, projecting a six year, $150 million contract for the Scott Boras client. But like other Boras clients, the market was badly misjudged by the agent, and the pitcher remained unemployed. Now, two days before Opening Day, Montgomery has become the last free-agent signed, the D-backs beating out other reported suitors including the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox. </p>
<p id="wdOlJW">The terms of the deal are slightly complex, though any way you cut it, fall far short of six years or $150m. In 2024, Jordan will earn $25m. There is a player option for 2025, which will kick in, if he makes ten starts for the Diamondbacks, and is worth $20m. That option amount increases to $22.5m after 18 starts, and tops out at $25m with 23 starts. However, it's clear Montgomery will not be part of the team's rotation on Opening Day. How long it'll take him to be ready is unclear. Some sources say he was throwing 75 pitches in his workouts, but was clearly not facing major-league hitters. He'll start off in the minors, and means he will NOT be eligible for the D-backs to make him a qualifying offer this winter.</p>
<p id="nz1khw">On other hand, Montgomery didn't get a qualifying offer last winter either, so this deal costs Arizona nothing but cash. They will need to free up a 40-man roster spot for Jordan, and casting a quick eye over the current roster doesn't show any obvious way. I'm hoping for a Jace Peterson DFA. Where thIs takes the 2024 payroll depends on where you look. Spotrac has the total at $165 million, Cot's says $167.1 million and Bob Nightengale <a href="https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1772791531034095891">tweeted</a> it was "nearly $175 million". It's unquestionably a franchise high, and blows well past the general belief going into the offseason, that $150 million was the absolute limit. I do wonder whether there will be any room to take on further salary at the trade deadline. </p>
<p id="N5zJTe">With Montgomery potentially "<a href="https://twitter.com/Gambo987/status/1772789248674222292">a few weeks</a>" from being ready to face major-league pitching, and Eduardo Rodriguez also starting season on the Injured List, the team will begin the year with Tommy Henry, Ryne Nelson and Brandon Pfaadt following Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly in the rotation. The three young starters will then be playing a game of musical chairs as the available rotation spots dwindle, when Rodriguez and Montgomery are ready to return. It's likely to be a competition, though with both Eduardo and Jordan being left-handers, Henry (also a southpaw) would seem to be the most likely candidate to be first sent down.</p>
<p id="GYDMHw">What might we expect from Montgomery? The Fangraphs projection is for a 3.90 ERA and 2.6 fWAR, over 172 innings of work. That would actually be a significant regression from Jordan's 2023 numbers, where he had a 3.20 ERA and was worth 4.3 fWAR. But it's closer to his career averages, where he is at a 3.68 ERA, and has a total of 14.2 fWAR across 140 starts. With this being a one-year contract, two at the most, aging is not going to be a concern. Montgomery turned 31 in December. When we <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/2024/3/20/24098868/2024-fangraphs-diamondbacks-projection-starting-pitchers">looked at starting rotations</a> last week, Arizona ranked 8th at 13.0 fWAR. Now, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP">they're up to 7th</a> and 13.8 fWAR, but there’s basically nothing to separate fourth through seventh. </p>
<p id="9zMkmM">The injury to E-Rod is projected to cost him 38 innings and 0.6 fWAR, so that explains why the increase post-Montgomery is not as large as you might have expected. Still, there's no doubt this definitely makes the Diamondbacks a better team for 2024. With Rodriguez and Montgomery in the rotation, I'd pit our first through fourth starters against just about anyone else's in the league. If the team makes it to the post-season with that quartet, then they will be in a much better place than they were in 2023. The days of Joe Mantiply, World Series starter, should not be something we should ever have to experience again. </p>
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https://www.azsnakepit.com/2024/3/27/24113246/surveying-the-diamondbacks-landscape-after-the-jordan-montgomery-signingJim McLennan2024-03-26T21:07:53-04:002024-03-26T21:07:53-04:00Dbacks sign Jordan Montgomery to a 1 year deal
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<img alt="World Series - Texas Rangers v Arizona Diamondbacks - Game Five" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/l-YGgod5vp58412rnhfzJ5rFm2U=/0x0:6000x4000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73235327/1769940613.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="Xa5DCc">The Mets, Yankees and Astros all appear to have been in on Montgomery to the end. The deal is a 1 year deal with a vesting option for another season if he makes 10 starts in 2024. Both the option and this seasons value are for 25 million$ <br><br>Speculation amongst myself, Blake and Spencer is that he will probably be ready in the first week of May to slot into the rotation. But, what do we know? <br><br><strong>Jordan Montgomery reportedly agrees to 1-year, $25 million deal with Diamondbacks</strong></p>
<p id="KpGHfh"><a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/jordan-montgomery-reportedly-agrees-to-1-year-25-million-deal-with-diamondbacks-005209022.html">https://sports.yahoo.com/jordan-montgomery-reportedly-agrees-to-1-year-25-million-deal-with-diamondbacks-005209022.html</a><br><br><strong>D-backs land Montgomery just before Opening Day (source)</strong></p>
<p id="e0hl6q"><a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/jordan-montgomery-d-backs-deal">https://www.mlb.com/news/jordan-montgomery-d-backs-deal</a><br><br>Nothing from Nick Piecoro, etc yet. He has only pitched in one game at Chase Field. It came last August, he went 8 innings and did not give up a run.<br><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ARI/ARI202308210.shtml">https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ARI/ARI202308210.shtml</a><br><br><br></p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2024/3/26/24113116/dbacks-sign-jordan-montgomery-to-a-1-year-dealJustin272024-03-26T20:02:30-04:002024-03-26T20:02:30-04:00Diamondbacks 6, Guardians 1: That’s a Wrap!
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<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4b4epacjwc6uM5sUJqyEVfwZ90w=/0x0:5457x3638/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73235241/usa_today_22747709.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="QNbfHz">And just like that, the regular season is upon us! Pfaadt looked sharp in the final tune up game before the regular season gets under way, and Alexander put an exclamation point on a fantastic spring to send this team to the 2024 regular season. It seemed rather appropriate that the springs biggest surprise was the one who made the biggest statement in the team’s final game before the regular season. Alexander’s home run traveled an estimated 444ft and into the front row of Cold Beers and Cheeseburgers. Definetely not making Torey’s decisions any easier. Tommy Troy also got his first hit at Chase Field! An RBI single to left.... Hopefully the first of many and hopefully a good omen for the Dbacks heading into 2024! I don’t know about you guys, but I am ready for spring training to be done and for the games to count for real. </p>
<p id="r0KgvD">Cheers to 2024!</p>
https://www.azsnakepit.com/2024/3/26/24113033/diamondbacks-6-guardians-1-thats-a-wrapjeffern51