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A couple of weeks ago, it seemed like the 111-loss record set by the 2004 Diamondbacks was no longer under threat. The team had played better baseball since the All-Star break, and after the victory on August 26 were sitting at 44-85. They needed just 8 wins over the final 33 games in order to surpass the franchise worst mark. Have won nine of the previous fourteen games, that seemed almost certain. But things have not gone well since, with Arizona losing nine of the ten games player. They therefore sit at 45-94, and now need 7 wins in the remaining 23 games, a much less certain outcome. Let’s parse the situation and see where the team might go.
First off, their current .324 win percentage equated to 7.45 wins, so they would edge over the line if they play like that going forward. However, a slight majority of the games (12) are on the road. If we project based on the D-backs’ home (.400) and road (.246) win percentage so far, the expected victories drops slightly, to 7.35 wins. However, it’s also relevant to look exactly at what the schedule holds, which is as follows:
- 1 vs. Rangers
- 3 @ Mariners
- 3 @ Dodgers
- 3 @ Astros
- 4 vs. Braves
- 3 vs. Dodgers
- 3 @ Giants
- 3 vs. Rockies
That’s brutal. 19 games against teams in or chasing the post-season, with the worst record there belonging to the Braves at 73-64. If we project based on how the Diamondbacks have done against teams at or over .500 (.286), and below .500 (.396), the expected wins drops to just 7.02. All it would take is one unexpected defeat, and the 2021 D-backs could be looking at equaling the 2004 version. A loss today - one of those four remaining games against other losing teams - would be particularly significant.