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D-backs Preview #38: 5/13 vs. Marlins

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All he does is hit homers. Can Andrew Young keep that up tonight?

Miami Marlins v Arizona Diamondbacks Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images

Today's Lineups

MARLINS DIAMONDBACKS
Miguel Rojas - SS Pavin Smith - RF
Jesus Aguilar - 1B Carson Kelly - C
Corey Dickerson - LF Asdrubal Cabrera - 1B
Adam Duvall - RF Eduardo Escobar - 3B
Jon Berti - 2B Andrew Young - 2B
Brian Anderson - 3B Josh Rojas - LF
Sandy Leon - C Nick Ahmed - SS
Magneuris Sierra - CF Tim Locastro - CF
Trevor Rogers - LHP Merrill Kelly - RHP

Last night’s defeat set the D-backs record to 1-15 this season. when they are held to fewer than five runs, with a string of 13 consecutive defeats in such games. Now, it does make sense that, the fewer runs you score, the less are your odds of victory. If you are held to zero runs or one run, you won’t win often. But you’d think the team might have managed to exe out more than a single 3-1 win over the course of the first six weeks of the season. Indeed, four runs is above the break-even point. NL teams scoring exactly four runs this year are 33-22, a healthy .600 win percentage. All told, there have been 308 taco-less offenses in the NL, and that are 93-215, a .302 win percentage.

On the basis of that rate, the D-backs would be “expected” to have won five (4.83, to be precise) of their sixteen taco-less games, rather than the one in which they prevailed. More impressively, if there’s a roughly 30% chance of winning each such game, the odds of losing thirteen of them in a row, as Arizona had done, is now less than one percent (0.93%, to again be precise). I guess that merits a “well done” of some kind. In nine of the sixteen games, the opposition has indeed reached the taco threshold of five or more runs. But on seven occasions, there has been no tacos for anyone. They include a trio of 2-4 losses, two of which came on consecutive days in New York.

What does it all mean? I have no idea. Here’s Jack with the pre-game media call.

Torey Lovullo notes

Taylor Widener threw a 3 1/3 Inning, 51 Pitch Sim game and then did PFP afterwards. All went well. He will throw a bullpen on Saturday and then go on a rehab assignment and make at least one start, perhaps two.

Ketel Marte took some AB’s today. He will play 4 innings in Centerfield in a sim game tomorrow at Salt River Field.

Andrew Young: ”He’s hit 4 homeruns, and 3 of them have been as a pinch hitter. Pinch Hitting is very very difficult. He’s figured out how to walk up to home plate very prepared in those situations... The thing that stands out for with Andrew is the amount of reps and the intensity of those reps that he’s showing us in his extra work and early work. (On both defense and offense) I want to get him in the lineup. I want to give him the opportunity to get 4 clean at bats... We’ve asked a lot of him. We all know that I asked him to play left field in Washington several weeks ago. We thought he was ready for that. I think the next he gets a start he’s in a very good spot defensively.”

NOTE: He’s obviously in the lineup today, at 2b. I asked if Young would see most of his future defensive innings on the infield at 2b rather than in the outfield, Torey answered in the affirmative.

“The outfield was a little bit more of a stretch for us in that particular point in time. I know that... I think for right now I want to put him in a spot that he’s very familiar with and be as fair to him as possible. I think second base is a very natural position to him. We’ll see where it goes from here.”

Madison Bumgarner follow up: Asked post game after his last outing what changed or happened to help flip the switch, MB said he didn’t want to throw anyone under the bus, then wouldn’t elaborate. Asked if he knew anything about that today, Torey rather tersely (for him) replied :

No I don’t. Any of that type of stuff I’m not going to necessarily share with you guys. There is some housekeeping that we always take care of day to day. There’s stuff in there that maybe I’m not aware of and then eventually crossed my plate. But definitely something I’m not going to discuss.

Torey Lovullo audio [or link]

[It begins with the clip of Bumgarner post-game after his last outing]