Preview, #66: 6/9 @ Blue Jays

The D-backs go for their fourth road sweep of the season, having already completed one in Atlanta, Pittsburgh (four games) and San Francisco. Which is a bit unusual, as they have yet to have a home sweep in a series lasting three games or more: the only one came from wins in both of the games at Chase against the Yankees. On the other hand, we haven’t been swept at home either: we were swept on trips to San Diego and Colorado. In other words, talking about series of three games or longer, all five sweeps in which Arizona have been involved this year, have been on the road. A win this afternoon would make it 6-0.

The D-backs are again proving to be better on the road than at home. That has also been the case in three out of the previous four years. Here are our home and road winning percentages since then:

• 2015: .481 vs. .494
• 2016: .407 vs. .444
• 2017: .642 vs. .506
• 2018: .494 vs. .519
• 2019: .456 vs. .543

2017 is the only season where we’ve been better than even in our home park. Though we were a very large amount better than .500 in that one season, and overall, this has pushed our home record fractionally above our road one (we have an identical number of home and road wins, but have five fewer losses at Chase Field). Arizona still ranks 23rd in the majors for home win percentage over that time, at .503. On the road, however, they are 10th best at .496. At seven points, that’s the second smallest gap in MLB - the Mariners are actually fractionally worse at home (.496 vs .499). The Phillies and Orioles have the biggest “home field advantage” at +140 points of win percentage; MLB average is +68 points.

The question would be, is this because the Diamondbacks play better than average on the road, or worse than average at home? Could be a little from Column A, a little from Column B. But it’s notable that the only recent season where we came close to reaching the playoffs was also the year we apparently figured it out, and were able to defend our home turf...