Preview, #67: 6/10 @ Phillies

The D-backs completed the sweep over the Blue Jays in Toronto, and improved to a major-league best 15-4 against opponents with losing records. The problem is, hardly anyone has played fewer games versus those teams. Only the Orioles (18), in fact; the average MLB team has faced sub-.500 opponents on 29 occasions, ten more than the D-backs. Now, this is a fairly chaotic statistic, with both the Padres and Rockies currently close to the dividing line. Indeed, if the Padres were just to lose in San Francisco tomorrow night, all if Arizona’s games against them would drop into the sub-.500 category. We’d go from 19 to 29 games - right at league average - and our record would drop from 15-4 to 18-11.

But, just for interest... For each team, I took their W% against winning/even and losing teams, and averaged them. This gives us a “Balanced win percentage” - an idea of what their record could be, if they had played equal numbers of games against each group. The chart below shows actual W%, winning, losing and balanced W% and the difference between actual and balanced W%. A negative value indicates the team would have been helped by a balanced schedule; a positive value, that it’d hurt their overall record.

The Diamondbacks see their win percentage increase by 82 points, The only team with more are the Seattle Mariners, at 83 points. These two teams have far and away the biggest split in their W%. Arizona are 385 points better against losing teams, and Seattle a startling 414 points better. It’s worth noting that in the Mariners’ 13-2 start, eight of those wins came against teams now below .500, and they also beat the Red Sox three times, when they were struggling horribly [as we also enjoyed in April]. If ever there was a false dawn to a season, this was it, with Seattle going an awful 15-39 since, a 117-loss pace over the past third of the schedule. They haven’t had a worse 54-game spell since 1980.

Back on May 23, I looked at the schedule and wanted to see the team take 2 of 3 against teams with losing records, and 1 of 3 against winners. It has been a bit of a mixed bag, matters complicated by the Rockies having been below .500 at the time, but now across the line and above .500. But the D-backs have gone 8-1 against the Giants, Mets and Blue Jays, while a disappointing 1-6 versus the Rockies and Dodgers. Overall though, it’s not too far off what I wanted to this point. If we can go 4-3 the rest of this road-trip, going through Philadelphia and Washington, I’d be fine with that. With the back of our rotation here in Philly, it won’t be easy, however.