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Preview, #24: 4/23 @ Pirates

Maybe we can score some more runs before the 7th inning this time?

San Diego Padres v Arizona Diamondbacks Photo by Ralph Freso/Getty Images

Today's Lineups

Jarrod Dyson - CF Adam Frazier - 2B
Eduardo Escobar - 3B Melky Cabrera - LF
David Peralta - LF Gregory Polanco - RF
Adam Jones - RF Josh Bell - 1B
Christian Walker - 1B Colin Moran - 3B
Ketel Marte - 2B Bryan Reynolds - CF
Nick Ahmed - SS Francisco Cervelli - C
Carson Kelly - C Cole Tucker - SS
Luke Weaver - RHP Trevor Williams - RHP

Another day, another late-inning surge by the Diamondbacks. Let’s look at the runs they have scored and allowed in each inning this year.

  • 1st: 7-13
  • 2nd: 6-12
  • 3rd: 9-12
  • 4th: 18-8
  • 5th: 8-9
  • 6th: 20-21
  • 7th: 29-14
  • 8th: 10-7
  • 9th: 14-6
  • 10th+: 2-0

Yeah, you might as well sleep on the Diamondbacks until that seventh inning rolls around, for the surge is real. They’ve outscored their opponents in that frame by 15 runs and more than a two-to-one margin. Over every other inning combined, they’ve been outscored by six runs. Remarkably, they have a 5-6 record when TRAILING at the end of the sixth inning: the rest of the NL teams are a combined 17-113 in that situation. Is is sustainable? Quite possibly not. It’s still a lot of fun to watch, especially games like yesterday’s - though the shine on that one was heavily diminished by watching an opposing pitcher crumple to the ground in tears. Good (or, at least, as good as could be hoped) news on that front though:

Meanwhile, the D-backs turn to Luke Weaver who, by fielding independent ERA, has been the best of our current starters. Well, it’s actually true by regular ERA as well. But while the gap between him and Robbie Ray in that metric is a mere hair (3.92 to 3.95), Weaver has outperformed his ERA by more than a run, with a FIP of 2.91. That’s largely the result of an excellent K:BB ratio of 24:5 in 20.2 innings. Ray and Zack Greinke both have more K’s than Weaver, but their walks and home-runs given up respectively, impact their FIP figures. It’s weird the back of the D-backs rotation, in Weaver and Merrill Kelly, has been more reliable than the front. Not better necessarily, just more consistent.