Preview, #129: 8/25 vs. Mariners

Brace yourself. For it appears the humidor has done Robbie Ray now favors, since he has really struggled at Chase Field this year. Here are his home/road splits:
Home: 36.1 IP, 42 H, 30 R, 29 ER, 12 HR, 20 BB, 47 SO, 7.18 ERA
Road: 44.1 IP, 30 H, 15 R, 15 ER, 2 HR, 24 BB, 57 SO, 3.05 ERA
That’s quite a difference in ERA, especially considering the K:BB rate is very similar (2.35 at home; 2.38 away). But look at those home-runs given up. At Chase, Ray has allowed close to one homer every three innings of work; elsewhere, his rate is one every twenty-two innings.

There’s some hope that may have been addressed: his last two outings at Chase, against the Rangers and Giants, saw one and zero home-runs allowed, over a total of 10.1 innings [though that goes to show how dreadful the issue was prior to that]. The weird thing is, Ray’s home-run issue don’t seem to have hurt the D-backs’ overall record that much. In all his starts, they are 3-5 when he doesn’t allow a home-run... and 4-4 when he does. They won both his worst outings, where he allowed three home-runs in 5.0 and 4.1 innings, though this was likely down to the offense scoring 29 runs over those two contests. Maybe Ray is simply pitching to the scoreboard. :)

Those are the only two Robbie starts the D-backs have won at Chase: I’d like to think he does not need nine or more runs of support for his team to succeed. Yet there’s also the July 20 10-11 loss to the Rockies on his home record - though in his defense, most of the runs allowed were by the bullpen [okay: Archie Bradley, but let’s not play the blame game...] Ray is the no-decision emperor, with 11 in 16 starts: the only other pitcher with 10+ starts and a no-decision in more than ²⁄₃ of them is the Rays’ Ryne Stanek, and he’s one of their “openers”. The next highest ND rate is the Rockies’ Chad Bettis, 4-3 with 19 starts. I imagine Ray not getting an out past the fifth in half his games is a factor here...