Series Preview #17 : Marlins @ Diamondbacks

Do things right.

“We’ve been looking for something like this,” said manager Torey Lovullo, whose team is 24-26. “... We did a lot right. We executed. We were focused. And that’s why we won games. So we got to continue marching on. But yeah, I think it’s a good push for us, for sure.” - Torey Lovullo quoted on dbacks.com after the series win against the Dodgers (May 22, 2024)

The Diamondbacks won a series at Dodger stadium for the first time in 6 years, which is pathetically great, but after facing some tough teams like the Orioles, Tigers and Dodgers, it is time the Diamondbacks climb back to over .500 against the Miami Marlins. There is really no excuse for not sweeping the Marlins if the team pretends to battle for a wild card this season.

But are the Diamondbacks ready to sweep the Marlins? Well, despite winning the series against the Dodgers, it certainly doesn’t look so in the eyes of Mike Hazen:

“We’re grinding right now. I feel like we’re capable of playing a lot better than we have. I know we’ve had some struggles individually, but the guys are working at it, so that’s the biggest deal to me and us that they’re working to put it together. We just have to find a way to play more consistently. We need to have more consistent at-bats, and pitching-wise, we’ve had some big innings that we need to figure out a way to try to avoid those big moments. Hopefully we can start to put that together going forward.” - Mike Hazen quoted on dbacks.com, giving an assessment on the state of the team (May 22, 2024)

The inconsistent offence and questionable defence are two things, the patch work that has to be done with the starting rotation will have the minds of Lovullo and Hazen puzzling as well in this series, with only the starters for the first two games confirmed.

But let’s see where the Marlins are at.

Lost season for the Marlins.

The Marlins reached the wild card play-offs somewhat surprisingly last year, finishing above .500 for the first time since 2010 and reaching post-regular season baseball for the first time in 20 years (or does 2020 count as well?). Their joy didn’t last long as they were swept (2-0) by the Phillies in the wild card battle.

You’d think that is something to build on, but the Marlins didn’t do that. It looks like the on-field product was somewhat of a byline as the headlines were made when Kim Ng decided to opt out of her contract after it was announced that she would get a president of baseball operations above her.

The Marlins then headed into Spring Training with not one notable signing, lost Jorge Soler to free agency (and without a QO attached) and with their ace, Sandy Alcantará, lost to TJ.

“In the end, the club will be going into 2024 with a fairly similar roster to last year, though it’s debatable whether that’s a good thing. Despite making the playoffs, the club actually had a -57 run differential last year, putting them in the bottom 10 of major league teams. They had an incredible 33-14 record in one-run games, allowing them to go 84-78 despite an expected win-loss of 74-88, a tough feat to repeat with consistency.” - Marlins off-season review on MLBTR.com

Hoping for a terrific bounceback season from former White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson and renewed (?) successes from any player not named Luis Arraez was probably a bit too much of wishful thinking and as soon as the season began, it was already lost for the Marlins. The Marlins didn’t get their first win of the season until game 10, when they beat the St. Louis Cardinals, another struggling contender-on-paper. By the end of April the team was 7-24 and decided to pull the plug on the season and flipped Luis Arraez to the Padres.

But since the beginning of May the Miami Marlins are playing .500 ball and they won their last 3 series against the Tigers (2-1), Mets (2-1) and Brewers (2-1). In the last 8 games they shut their opponent out 4 times, and won 4 one-run games, 3 in extra innings. They are 7-3 over their last 10 games.

So the Diamondbacks better be warned. We need to sweep these guys, but will have a very hard time in doing so.

Matchups.

Game #1 Fri 05/24 6:40 PM MST, Braxton Garrett (MIA) vs Zac Gallen (ARI).

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• Braxton Garrett. 2 GS, 9.2 IP, 0 W-0 L, 10.24 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 1.55 WHIP, 4.33 K/BB.
• Zac Gallen. 9 GS, 50.2 IP, 5 W-3 L, 3.02 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 1.11 WHIP, 3.93 K/BB.

If you look at the ERA, there is no better way to see the Diamondbacks on the road to a series sweep than to see Zac Gallen take the ball against Braxton Garrett. Zac took the loss against the Tigers, but you have to give the man some run support.

Plenty of opportunities to get some run support against Garrett, at least that is what you’d think if you take a look at the ERA. Garrett was a first round pick in 2016, had Tommy John that hampered his development time and struggled a bit in his first looks at the highest level in 2020 and 2021. In 2022 he pitched himself in the rotation during the season and last year he was a mainstay and with a 3.66 ERA in almost 160 innings one of the reasons the Marlins surprised by qualifying for the play-offs. He entered Spring training with a shoulder injury and didn’t make his debut until two weeks ago and though he got two no decisions, he was tagged with 6 runs against the Mets and 5 against the Phillies. Lots of those where inherited runs his reliever buddies allowed to cross home plate, but the truth is Garrett has been wild in his first two starts of the season. Still, he is a far better pitcher than his ERA suggests, relies heavily on a good sinker-slider combo, and who says he doesn’t get back on track in Phoenix? Garrett faced the Diamondbacks twice last year. He got the loss in May (4 runs on 7 hits, 5-2 win for the good guys) and a no decision in April (1 run on 4 hits, 3-2 win for the bad guys).

Game #2 Sat 05/25 7:10 PM MST, Sixto Sánchez (MIA) vs Jordan Montgomery (ARI).

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• Sixto Sánchez. 5 GS (12 G), 26.2 IP, 0 W-2 L, 6.41 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 1.69 WHIP, 1.36 K/BB.
• Jordan Montgomery. 6 GS, 34.1 IP, 2 W-2 L, 4.98 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 1.37 WHIP, 1.82 K/BB.

Sixto Sánchez made his debut in the shortened 2020 season but ever since has been out with shoulder injuries and surgeries, not pitching at all in 2021 and 2022, and making just one appearance in 2023. Obviously, that the Dominican has returned to the major leagues is a remarkable feat, but the results so far haven’t been great. He started the season in the bullpen but was put in the rotation by the end of April when injuries kept on mowing down starting pitchers in Miami. Sánchez’s main problem has been the first inning where he has allowed a total of 11 runs in 5 games. That seems like a perfect fit for the Diamondbacks, who enjoy to score early. Sánchez doesn’t offer much against right-handed batters, relying on a cutter and a fastball and on occasion a sinker. Against lefties he mixes in a change-up.

That should give Montgomery plenty of opportunities to put himself on the list with a win. Montgomery had a tough game against the Tigers, but went 6 innings. It was probably his worst outing since the 3 innings he lasted against the Dodgers some weeks ago. While not as good as advertised, Jordan should have sufficient stuff to keep the Marlins’ offence off the board.

Game #3 Sun 05/26 1:10 PM MST, Ryan Weathers (MIA) vs TBD (ARI).

• Ryan Weathers. 10 GS, 56.2 IP, 2 W-4 L, 3.49 ERA, 4.54 FIP, 1.11 WHIP, 2.42 K/BB.
• TBD.

Who will it be for the Diamondbacks? Tommy Henry, Blake Walston, another opener or bullpen game or maybe Christian Mena? It will probably still take a few weeks for Eduardo Rodriguez to make his season debut and with Slade Cecconi down, the Diamondbacks will have to make a decision who will be the opponent of Ryan Weathers.

So far luck is laughing at the Marlins with Ryan Weathers. Not because he has been such a terrific haul, but because Miami obtained him from the Padres a year ago in a trade that sent first base benchy Garrett Cooper and another minor leaguer the other way.

Weathers was a first round pick in 2018 though and is still only 24 years old, so still has a lot to prove, but probably wasn’t a fit on a Padres team that was only looking for guaranteed success in their rotation and on the field. Weathers had struggled at the highest level but has now suddenly emerged as a fine back-end starter on a decimated Marlins rotation. Weathers struggled a bit in his first start of the season against the Pirates and then at the end of April against the Nationals, but in between kept a strong Braves’ lineup rather quiet (3 runs in almost 6 innings - no run support) and in his last 3 starts kept the damage limited against the Dodgers (3 runs in 6 innings), shut out Detroit (8 scoreless innings) and kept his team in line for a win against the Brewers (2 runs in 7 innings). So, the lefty is on a good streak.