Diamondbacks Gameday Thread, #142: 9/8 @ Cubs

Unexpected day baseball is unexpected. I’m probably only here on time, because Dano sent me an email last night, mentioning the fact that today is a Friday afternoon game. Really only at Wrigley, where I believe (and cannot be bothered to Google) they still have a limitation on the number of night games they have, so need to pick and choose when they are used. This should put a dent in my productivity, what with it also being a Zac Gallen start. Albeit a Zac Gallen start on the road, though that narrative took a bit of a bump after the last start, easily his worst of the year at Chase. Though that came on the heels of his only one allowing more than five ER, so right now, I have concerns.

Getting Gallen back on track is going to be crucial for the D-backs. If he starts every fifth game, then he will have five starts left, and Arizona probably should be looking to go 4-1 in those. The other starters will have four each. If the D-backs go 3-1 when Merrill Kelly takes the mound, and split the remaining 12 games, that would be a mark of 13-8, giving the team 86 wins. Will that be enough? I would think so. Arizona currently occupies the final wild-card spot and is currently on pace for 83.9 wins. With San Francisco fading, it’s down to us, the Reda and Marlins. Interestingly, all three teams have been outscored by their opponents this year.

Few teams make the post-season with a negative run differential. Excluding the shortened 2020 season, with its bloated playoffs and hollow, empty World Series, the last team to do so were, of course, the 2007 D-backjs, who were outscored by 20 runs, but still won 90 games. The only others in the wild-card era were the 2005 Padres (-42) and the 1997 Giants (-9). Right now, the D-backs are best placed to get their differential back positive, at just -14. The Reds are at -37, while the Marlins are -44. Meanwhile, the Padres have outscored their opponents by 64 runs - that’s more than the division leading Brewers - but are all but certain to stay home. It’s not how much you score, it’s when you score them...