Diamondbacks Gameday Thread, #104: 7/28 vs. Mariners

Corbin Carroll’s Rookie of the Year chances

tl;dr - Pretty damn good. Unlike when we looked at Zac Gallen on Wednesday, bWAR and fWAR are in agreement that Corbin is the best rookie in the National League this year. It’s not particularly close either. Carroll currently sits at 4.4 bWAR, which is a clear win more than anyone else, with the runner-up being Reds’ pitcher Andrew Abbott. As we discussed yesterday, even though Abbott’s bWAR figure so far is impressive, his limited playing time (he only debuted on June 5) and almost certain regression (a .222 BABIP so far) is going to hamper his chances going forward and at the end of the season. Third is former D-backs pick Matt McClain at 2.6 bWAR. I think I made myself a little sad just now.

Over on Fangraphs, fWAR gives Carroll an even larger lead. He is at 4.3 fWAR and with no pitcher being worth even two wins by that metric (Abbott’s FIP is basically twice his ERA), it is McClain and his 2.5 fWAR who is second. James Outman seemed potentially to be tussling with Carroll for the honor early on the season. However, he faded from the conversation, though is at 2.2 fWAR (1.5 bWAR) and the only other player even half of Corbin’s value to date per Fangraphs. Much the same goes for others who were touted as rivals, like the Mets’ Francisco Alvarez (1.1 bWAR, 2.1 fWAR). They may have started hot, but have not had the consistency of Carroll, as the following shows:

• April: .910 OPS
• May: .879 OPS
• June: .979 OPS
• July: .899 OPS

“But, wait!” I hear you cry. “What about Elly De La Cruz? I was reliably informed by social media, that he is the greatest player to arrive since Shohei Ohtani showed up!” Yeah. About that... Perhaps it’s a result of Arizona having an actual Rookie of the Year candidate for the first time in a while, but I am struggling to think of a more over-hyped player since before the pandemic. I’ll just leave this here:

Really? Really? If the award was decided by press coverage, De La Cruz would likely be a shoo-in. But the hard, cold fact is this: hust 0.6 bWAR and 0.8 fWAR. Now, that is in 43 games, less than half the playing time of Carroll. But even pro-rating it to a full season, you’re maybe talking a three-win player. Good for a 21-year-old, to be sure. But health permitting, Carroll (who is only a year older) should end the season somewhere between six and seven wins. For all the squealing over the size of the Reds rookie’s dongs, Corbin hits them at 165% of De La Cruz’s rate, while striking out only 63% of EDLC’s volume - Elly’s whiffs could power an entire wind-farm.

So claims of the two player as credible comparables are entirely ludicrous, and anyone making them should feel very ashamed. :)

[All stats through July 26, so exclude any games elsewhere yesterday]