Diamondbacks Gameday Thread, #97: 7/20 @ Braves

Well, can't say I'm surprised to see there's a chance of a sweep in series finale. I'm just pleasantly shocked to find it's for the Diamondbacks, with today effectively being a “house money” game. The signs were not good coming in, having been swept by Blue Jays in the first series after the All-Star break, and lost eight of their last ten. Not exactly when you want to be facing the team with the best record in baseball. The doomsters were out in full force. But two games later, they are nowhere to be found. Funny how that happens, isn't? Tuesday was likely front-runner for game of the year, but in terms of impact on the post-season, yesterday may have been more important, in terms of results elsewhere.

Because as well as the Braves, the Dodgers, Marlins, Phillies and Giants all lost, and hat’s five of the seven teams against whom the D-backs are competing for a post-season spot. [The Reds and Brewers won, but they were both playing other rivals, so it was a bit of a Kobayashi Matu scenario, in that one of our competitors had to win!] As a result, while Tuesday’s uber-dramatic victory inproved our playoff odds (per Fangraphs) by 3.2%, last night’s victory boosted them by 5.3%. They are now back up to 62.4%, That’s not far off what they were before the break, when the D-backs were given a 64.7% shot. A win today should complete undoing the damage, depending on results elsewhere.

There is still more to be done. The season high was 79.8% on July 1, so odds have definitely slipped since then. However, every game where the D-backs remain in a play-off spot is now a significant step forward, as the advantage here definitely goes to the incumbent. At this point, the teams to focus on most are probably those outside a postseason slot. which would be Miami and Cincinnati. The former have lost six games in a row, while the latter are 3-7 over their last ten, so the D-backs have gained ground on them both in that time, even as Arizona has had its issues. With the Reds next up after Atlanta, we can hope for things to be almost back where they were by the time our team returns to Chase.