Mike Rizzo (2000-2006)

Living WAR Doc - Updated regularly, so numbers may not match (last configured May 31, 2023)

Mike Rizzo signed 228 players during his time as Scouting Director (Seven Drafts). Of those 228 men, 42 reached The Show. That’s a 18.4% success rate. Of Rizzo’s drafts, both 2005 and 2006 still have active players. For 2005, this is Justin Upton. From 2006, there is Max Scherzer and technically Brett Anderson (he hasn’t officially declared retirement, so I’m giving him a nice buffer of potential to play a bit more - he will be “forcibly” retired for the purposes of my analysis next season). There are zero players drafted by Rizzo still playing and waiting for an MLB cup of coffee.

Hall of Fame Draftees

Max Scherzer (Drafted 2006, MLB 2009-present): 70.8 fWAR, 72.6 bWAR, 71.7 aWAR

Honorable Mention: Brandon Webb (Drafted 2000, MLB 2003-2009): 29.6 fWAR, 33.0 bWAR, 31.3 aWAR

Generalities found in draft history based on WAR

Well for starters, 44.21% of Rizzo’s total aWAR comes from two players. Both were college pitchers, although Scherzer was a 1st Rounder and Webb an 8th Rounder.

But there are plenty of additional highlights to enjoy as well. Rizzo oversaw drafts that brought in:

• 2001: Dan Uggla (11th Round, 338 Overall), Chad Tracy (7th, 218) & Scott Hairston (3rd, 98)
• 2002: Chris Snyder (2nd, 68) & Dustin Nippert (15th, 459 - Of Korean Fame)
• 2003: Carlos Quentin (1st, 29) & Conor Jackson (1st, 19)
• 2004: Mark Reynolds (16th, 476)
• 2005: Justin Upton (1st, 1) & Micah Owings (3rd, 83)

With the exception of his first draft year (2000), Rizzo signed all of his First Round Selections and that’s only because he didn’t have a pick that round. None of his first picks posted negative WAR totals either which is nice. And he only got better through the years, with each successive first pick posting a better career WAR than the previous! The single asterisk is from 2003. That year he took both Jackson (19th) and Quentin (29th) in the First Round and Quentin posted 10.6 aWAR while Jackson only had 2.5.

Were these successful drafts

Unmitigated YES! Not across the board (2002 and 2003 were only 6.9 and 13.1 aWAR respectively which definitely stand out as the low points), but it’s incredibly difficult to argue anything else here. Drafting a Hall of Fame caliber player alone would make this tenure a success. Yet Rizzo nearly had two (being optimistic about Webb of course).

The 18.4% MLB rate isn’t ideal though. Does that drag down your opinion overall? If so, I hate to break it to you, but you probably don’t want to get excited about the draft moving forward...

One very interesting note about the biggest hits of Rizzo’s Arizona Drafts is that his guys could nearly field an entire team. By no means would it be a great team, but there is the beginnings of a genuine core there.

Best First Selection Performer: Max Scherzer (2006 1st Round 11th Overall 71.7 aWAR)

Best First 10 Round Performer: See Max Scherzer above

Best “Sleeper” (Round 11 or later) Performer: Dan Uggla (2001 11th Round 338th Overall 20.7 aWAR)

Is Arizona a better a team because of Rizzo’s influence

This is where Rizzo’s legacy starts to get murky. For all his draft success, very little of it came in Arizona... 80.9 aWAR to be specific. This is only 34.72% of his total aWAR. That’s only slightly higher than Scherzer’s Career aWAR.

But as stated in the Opening part of this series, Scouting Directors have far less say over what happens to their guys after signing day. It’s hard to fault Rizzo for Webb and Jackson’s career ending medical issues. Or leaving Uggla to the Rule V draft. Or trading Max-freaking-Scherzer!

All-in-all, Rizzo did very well as Arizona’s Director of Scouting. The team reaped some of the benefit from the draft itself. Additionally though, the effects of moves made with Rizzo’s draftees can still be seen on the field: Nick Ahmed was part of the Justin Upton to Atlanta deal. So even 18 years later, Rizzo’s draft influence can still be felt in the Valley.

Mike Rizzo’s AZ Stats:

Total AZ aWAR - 80.9

Percentage of Total aWAR in AZ - 34.72%

Average AZ (draft) aWAR - 11.6

Median AZ (draft) aWAR - 15.7