Diamondbacks Gameday Thread, #74: 6/20 @ Brewers

Reno roster moves

In the aftermath of the Alek Thomas for Josh Rojas swap yesterday, there were a few other roster moves in Reno worthy of note:

• Transferred Peter Solomon from Reno to Amarillo
• Transferred Michel Otanez from Reno to Amarillo
• Signed Steve Nogosek to a Minor League contract, assigned to Reno
• Transferred Andrew Saalfrank from Amarillo to Reno

Solomon being sent down is interesting, because he was actually part of the D-backs 26-man roster in April, operating as the mop-up guy. His five appearances never got into a game where the margin was less than three runs, and since he allowed 18 earned runs across 13.1 innings, there would be good reason for that. Nogosek is interesting, having been pretty good out of the Mets bullpen last year (a 2.45 ERA across 22 IP), but terrible this season (5.61 ERA in 25.2 IP). In particular, his walk-rate spiked, so getting that under control is going to be important. Saalfrank was a 6th-round pick in 2019, and has a 2.70 ERA over 33.1 IP for Amarillo, with a 45:20 K:BB. Again, he needs fewer walks to succeed in Reno.

Playoff odds update

Even though the D-backs didn’t gain any ground last night, due to the Giants coming back to win, their playoff odds did improve, the uptick coming at the expense mostly of the Padres. Fangraphs now puts Arizona at a 72.4% post-season shot: they still reckon the Dodgers are favorites, but they are now down below eighty percent at 79.9%. The Giants’ unbeaten streak has seen them improve more than twenty percent in ten days, going from 41.5% on June 10 to 62.5% now. The Padres sit at 51.1%, and another loss tonight could send then down to worse than even odds for the first time this year. The Rockies are... um, never mind.

Meanwhile, our opponents tonight may have lost the lead in the NL Central to suddenly and surprisingly surging Cincinnati. but Milwaukee still are seen as easily the favorites. Their 49.0% is basically close to three times that of anyone else - the Cubs are next at 16.7%, and Fangraphs is very unconvinced the Reds are for real, with only a 15.6% shot. The fact they’d be fourth in either the East or West likely play into the odds, with probably just one playoff team coming out of the Central this season. Meanwhile, what about those Marlins? You could have got 15/4 against them making the post-season in spring. Who had them with the third-best NL mark as we approach the half-way point?