Series Preview #12 : Diamondbacks vs Marlins

The Wild Card Race.

If the season was over today, the Diamondbacks would be a wild-card team! Details are in the following table (games through 7 May):

Data from Baseball Reference and MLB.com.

The Marlins won Sunday’s game, breaking a 5 game losing streak, which seems to have taken them out of contending with the Diamondbacks for a NL wild-card spot.

The Mets and the Cubs have pulled ahead of the Marlins, but they remain behind the Diamondbacks.

The Diamondbacks need to win this series with the Marlins to stay ahead of the Mets and the Cubs and to remain a favorite to win a wild-card in the NL.

Corbin Carroll’s Hitting Streak.

Through Sunday, Corbin Carroll had an 12 game hitting streak. His streak is remarkable for two reasons:

• Wednesday and Saturday he entered the games as a pinch hitter in the late innings and kept his streak alive!
• During his streak, his .522 On-Base-Percentage (OBP) led the Majors per Baseball Savant (20 PA minimum).

Corbin Carroll’s chances for rookie-of-the-year are alive and well!

Dominic Fletcher’s Hitting Streak.

Dominic Fletcher got a hit in his first six games in the Majors. I tip my hat to Jim McLennan for his table in Saturday’s recap that shows the Diamondbacks’ record is the first 7 games in the Majors, held by David Peralta. David Peralta played for the Diamondbacks for 9 seasons. Will Dominic Fletcher be a Diamondback in 9 seasons?

Luis Arraez’s 1.016 OPS is the best on the Marlins.

Depending on how you look at it, the offseason trade to acquire Luis Arraez was either the best or the worst trade in Marlin history. It will likely take a couple years to determine whether either view is correct.

Meanwhile, with .483 on-base-percentage and 12 RBIs, he is batting well.

Recent additions to the Marlins roster.

The following players were recently up from the minors or from rehab assignments:

• 2 May, Xavier Edwards (bench infielder).
• 3 May, Devin Smeltzer (who was quickly DFA’d on 4 May).
• 3 May, Peyton Burdick (outfielder).
• 4 May, Chi Chi Gonzalez (long relief).
• 7 May, Joey Wendel (shortstop).

The Pitching Matchups will reflect four young pitchers (25 years old and younger).

Monday 6:40 PM Arizona Time, Braxton Garrett (25 years old, 5.81 ERA, 4.85 FIP ) vs Zac Gallen (27 years old, 2.53 ERA, 1.72 FIP)

The Marlins drafted Braxton Garrett in the first round of the 2016 draft. In his latest start against the Braves, Braxton Garrett gave up 11 earned runs in 4.1 innings. The second inning accounted for 7 of the 11 runs.

Zac Gallen is the Diamondbacks’ ace. His latest start broke a streak of scoreless innings. However, his streak of 107 batters without giving up a walk is alive! The record is held by Bill Fischer. In 1962 he pitched 84.1 consecutive innings without a walk.

The Diamondbacks are favored (65%) to win this game per 538.com.

Tuesday 6:40 PM Arizona Time, Jesus Luzardo (25 years old, 3.66 ERA, 3.97 FIP) vs Brandon Pfaadt (24 years old, one start in Majors)

This season, Jesus Lazardo is the Marlins’ best starter.

Brandon Pfaadt’s first start in the Majors was a learning experience, and nevertheless the Diamondbacks won the game. If his spring training results were predictive, it’s likely he will greatly improve. This view seems to be shared by 538.com, which rated this game as a 50% chance for each team (tossup).

Wednesday, 12:40 PM Arizona Time, Edward Cabrera (25 years old, 4.78 ERA, 5.17 FIP) and Merrill Kelly (34 years old, 2.75 ERA, 3.92 FIP).

Edward Cabrera is better than his ERA and FIP. His strengths are fastball velocity (96.1 MPH), strikeouts (0.297 per batter faced), and whiffs per pitch (0.137 whiffs per pitch). He has two weaknesses:

• Consistently allowed 7 or 8 batters to reach base every game (0.365 OBP against).
• Averaged 4.5 innings per game.

Four of Merrill Kelly’s last five starts were quality starts. In his latest start against the Nationals, he allowed 1 earned run in 7 innings pitched.

The Diamondbacks are favored (59%) to win this game per 538.com.