Series Preview #15: Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh

The Dbacks come into this at 6-1 in their last 7 and 9-6 in the Month of May. The Pirates on the other hand, after their hot 20-8 start to the season, are just 3-12 after that and sit at 23-20 on the season. They do have a positive run differential, +13 to the Dbacks’ +16. Mitch Keller and Rich Hill, who we won’t see are their best SPs. David Bednar anchors the back end of their bullpen with 9 saves in 16 games and an ERA of 0.56 and 21 punch outs in 16 innings. On the offensive side, Bryan Reynolds, Joe Suwinski and Andrew McCutchen all have between 19-23 RBI. They have 5 hitters with 5-7 home runs. Chris Owings is also on their active roster, having been called up earlier this month. Reynolds leads the team with a .296 BA (of players with more than 100 PAs)

https://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/analysis/diamondbacks-lead-trio-of-unlikely-nl-wild-contenders

Game 1 — 5/19, 3:35 PM Arizona

Gallen 6-1, 2.35 ERA, 0.85 WHIP vs Johan Oviedo 2-3, 5.14 ERA and 1.64 WHIP
Oviedo was acquired by Pittsburgh, from St Louis last August for Chris Stratton and Jose Quintana. Oviedo only has one appearance against the Dbacks in 2021, a game in which Tim Locastro got HBP, because of course he did.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ARI/ARI202105280.shtml

Gallen has faced the Pirates twice, both times last year. His start against them at Chase Field was better, going 7ip allowing no runs on 3 hits while striking out 8. His other start at PNC, he went 6 innings, giving up 2 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks.

Oviedo’s best start this season was his second of the year, allowing no runs on 5 hits in 6+ to the White Sox. He does also have a 10K game this season against the Cardinals. In 3 out of his last 4 starts he has allowed 5+ runs and 6+ hits. He might be starting to turn it around, however, since in his last start against the Orioles he only gave up a run in 5 innings, he did walk 5 though.

Game 2 — 5/12, 1:05 PM Arizona

Mitch Keller 5-1, 2.38 ERA and 1.02 WHIP vs. Brandon Pfaadt 0-1, 8.59 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Keller is definitely their ace, and even has a complete game shutout this season in his last home start against Colorado. Keller followed up his shutout with a 13K, 7 inning performance against Baltimore, in which he did not allow a run. He has not been scored on in 16 innings dating back to his only bad start against Tampa where he gave up 5 runs (1 earned).
His only appearance against Arizona came last August, a game in which MadBum gave up 5.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ARI/ARI202208100.shtml

Game 3 — 5/13, 10:35 AM Arizona

Merrill Kelly 4-3, 2.92 ERA and 1.08 WHIP vs Roansy Contreras 3-4, 4.40 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.

Contreras was originally a NY Yankee and came to Pittsburgh in the Jameson Tallon deal. Contreras actually does have an appearance against us in his young career. He went 5+ in a game last June where Melancon got a BS loss.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PIT/PIT202206040.shtml

Kelly has faced Pittsburgh 3 times, twice at PNC. His numbers in PNC are a combined 12 innings, 4 total earned runs with 6 walks and 7 strikeouts with 2 home runs allowed.

Contreras’ most recent start, he went 7 innings and gave up 2 runs in a 2-0 loss to Baltimore. He really only has had one very bad outing plus two games where he gave up 4 and 5 runs respectively.

Conclusion

I think it depends on the third game, with both team’s aces pitching, they win those contests respectively. Dbacks win the series 2-1.