Diamondbacks Gameday Thread, #37: 5/10 vs. Marlins

Another rough start for the D-backs’ top pitching prospect last night, as Brandon Pfaadt was charged with six runs over his five innings of work. I don’t want to make excuses for it, but I do note that five of those came on home-runs to Jorge Soler, who has a 122 OPS+ this year, so is not your typical Marlins hitter. But it does drop Pfaadt into an unenviable club. He’s one of sixteen pitchers in the wild-card era, who started their career by allowing six or more earned runs in each of their first two appearances. It’s not necessarily the kiss of death for a pitcher: there are some names listed who have gone on to perfectly respectable careers, such as Jeff Francis and Shawn Chacon.

However, there are also cases which will make your stomach lurch a bit. There’s the only previous Diamondback on the list, Casey Daigle. His major-league career lasted just 71.2 innings with a 7.16 ERA. And that makes him look like Cy Young beside David Manning, who never pitched in the majors again after those two outings. That said, I’m not sure if any of the pitchers listed were ever a top 100 hundred consensus prospect, as is the case for Pfaadt. But it’s also worth remembering the old baseball adage: TINSTAAPP. “There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.” You can see this if you take a look at an old prospect list. For example here are the top pitching prospects on MLB.com from before the 2012 season.

• 1. Matt Moore, LHP, TB
• 4. Julio Teheran, RHP, ATL
• 5. Shelby Miller, RHP, STL
• 8. Jameson Taillon, RHP, PIT
• 9. Trevor Bauer, RHP, ARI
• 10. Dylan Bundy, RHP, BAL
• 11. Gerrit Cole, RHP, PIT
• 13. Manny Banuelos, LHP, NYY
• 15. Jacob Turner, RHP, DET
• 16. Danny Hultzen, LHP, SEA
• 18. Taijuan Walker, RHP, SEA
• 20. Archie Bradley, RHP, ARI
• 21. Tyler Skaggs, LHP, ARI

It’s a grab-bag of recognizable names, a couple of superstars, and a reasonable number of decent careers. But there are also a good number of players who definitely did not live up to the lofty expectations for them. You need look no further than Matt Moore, the #1 overall prospect in the game at the time this was written. While he’s still pitching in the majors to this day, he has a career ERA+ of 93, and has never been worth more than 2.5 bWAR for a season. That’s still better than, say, Manny Banuelos whose entire career to this point has consisted of 14 starts, 44 relief appearances and a 76 ERA+. If Pfaadt does turn out to be a bust - and it’s far, FAR too early to say that - he certainly won’t be the first.

Oh, recap will be a bit late, as Ben has a wedding event to attend first.