Madison Bumgarner DFA Watch

Yesterday marked a milestone in the decine and fall of Madison Bumgarner. Yesterday's outing in Miami, where he allowed five runs over five innings and took the loss, officially sank his value over four seasons with the Diamondbacks below replacement level. Over 68 starts, he has now been worth -0.2 bWAR. Nobody else has made more than 40 starts and been in negative territory. Here are the "top" ten in team history.

There have been worse pitchers (Russ Ortiz, obviously and Shelby Miller - but I had forgotten how much Brandon McCarthy pretty much sucked over his time here). But there haven't been any who have been bad for as long as Bumgarner, now in his fourth season with the club - three of which have been below replacement.

I blame Dan Bellino. When the umpire inspected Madison Bumgarner for foreign substances, the last time the Diamondbacks were in Miami, the starting pitcher was in hix sixth start of 2022, and had an ERA of 1.50. He was clearly on his way to a fifth All-Star appearance. But Fondlegate appears to have broken Madison. Over the 27 starts he made since that bizarre incident, Bumgarner is 6-16 with a 5.70 ERA, and now appears to be teetering on the verge of getting dumped from the D-backs rotation. Thanks, Dan...

Okay, much of the above is sarcasm. But remember those happy days at the start of 2022, when we dared to hope that he might actually be somewhat fixed? Sure, even when he had that 1.50 ERA, the peripherals were suggesting it couldn’t be sustained. And by “suggesting”, I mean “screaming from the roof-tops through an industrial-strength megaphone,” with a FIP to that point of 4.86. But, hell: in hindsight, we’d have been happy to settle for a Bumgarner whose ERA was around the level of his FIP. Because the problem has only been escalating since, with his ERA continuing to spiral up, the closer we get to the present day.

• Last 30 starts: ERA = 5.42
• Last 25 starts: ERA = 5.85
• Last 20 starts: ERA = 6.08
• Last 15 starts: ERA = 6.78
• Last 10 starts: ERA = 7.51

Over the previous three seasons, when the Diamondbacks were close to the worst team in the major leagues, Bumgarner’s performance was... Well, still clearly not acceptable, and even tolerable is perhaps pushing it. But it is fair to say that it didn’t stand out so much, because the team obviously had a slew of problems, and he was only one of them. But the team currently sits on top of the National League West, despite Bumgarner having the fifth-worst ERA in the majors among qualifying pitchers. Both his ERA and FIP sit close to three runs worse than any of the other pitchers currently in the rotation. While this team is still imperfect, the strong start highlights Bumgarner’s inadequacies.

The truth be told, of the four years Bumgarner has been here, only once has been among the best five starting pitchers. That was in 2021, when he was worth 1.4 bWAR, good enough for third behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. The other three seasons, he has been below replacement level. Admittedly, there weren’t exactly obvious candidates to replace him in some of those campaigns. But that is no longer the case, with prospects like Brandon Pfaadt knocking on the door. It’s ironic that the new CBA rules, giving incentive bonus picks for prospect promotion, may actually be working against Pfaadt getting service time, with the team wanting to preserve his rookie eligibility for next season.

Outside the team, it now feels like everyone is calling for the team to eat Bumgarner’s contract, or at least remove him from the rotation. Now, fans are very good at spending other people’s money. But the reality is that, if the team is genuinely trying to win every day - rather than only four out of five - then Madison Bumgarner is now part of the problem rather than the solution. The team has, so far, been given an unexpected change to contend for a play-off spot, probably a season earlier than many people expected. It’s up to them whether or not they want to take it.