Diamondbacks Game Preview #133: 9/4 vs. Brewers

The loss last night dropped the D-backs’ record in extra-inning games this season to 3-5, which isn’t bad. But it conceals a problem on the pitching side of things. Now, given the presence of the Manfred man starting on second in every frame after the ninth, it will be more difficult than usual to stop the opposition from scoring. But it still happens. Over the 488 extra (half) innings played in the majors this year, 188 of them have resulted in the team scoring zero runs. That’s a 37% rate. However, of the 12 extra innings pitched by Arizona in 2022, they have kept the opposition off the board only once (an 8%) rate. On June 21 in San Diego, Kyle Nelson and Sean Poppen combined for a scoreless 10th. We still lost, 3-2 in 11.

All told, Arizona has allowed 15 runs over 12 innings in extra, an average of 1.25, while scoring 11 (0.92 average). The average across MLB is 1.01 runs per extra inning. However, Arizona’s ERA in extras is 3.27, which is actually better than the MLB average there of 3.65. Why the difference? It’s because the Manfred Man does not factor into ERA: if he scores, it counts as unearned. That’s the run the Diamondbacks have had problems with: of the fifteen they have allowed, eleven were unearned: things like last night’s home-run off Joe Mantiply (scoring one earned and one unearned) have been the exception. That 73% unearned rate in extras is higher than the 65% figure across all of the majors this season.

You won’t be surprised to hear that Mark Melancon has allowed almost half of all extra-inning runs by a D-backs, with seven over his five appearances. Ian Kennedy has three: Poppen and Mantiply two apiece and Noe Ramirez one. Between them our ex-closer and current closer have been responsible for almost two-thirds of all extra inning plate appearances, but have been hit at a disturbing .387 average (12-for-31). While only two hits have gone for extra bases (both doubles), it’s still an .863 OPS for the pair combined in extras. With the MLB average being 85 points lower at .778, it’s not hard to work out why the team has struggled to post those goose-eggs more than most teams.

Also today: a streak, but I’m too superstitious to talk about that!