FanPost

Beer and Baseball: It's time to watch Jake McCarthy

Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

On July 30th of this year, the Diamondbacks traded fan favorite David Peralta to the Tampa Bay Rays for 19 year old catcher Christian Cerda. The trade was necessary for both teams. The Dbacks were out of contention, Peralta's contract was up at the end of the year, and the Rays are firmly in win now mode. It was time for the Diamondbacks to look to the future and open up the outfield to their younger players. When asked about the trade, Dbacks executive vice president and general manager Mike Hazen had this to say:

"We still have to make decisions that are in sort of the best long-term interests of the organization, and David [Peralta] is an impending free agent," general manager Mike Hazen said in a conference call following the trade. "And the one area of our operation that I think you could pretty much confidently point to that we have more than our fair share of is left-handed-hitting outfielders."

Alek Thomas, Daulton Varsho, Ketel Marte, Cooper Hummel, Corbin Carrol (I could keep going. The entire AAA outfield is left handed hitters) are just a few examples of batters who can hit from the left side that are either in the Majors or upper minor leagues. However, there is one young left-hander in particular who has taken advantage of the open outfield spot. Some of you might have realized I left one person out in the above list, and if not, hopefully you read the title. But to get to my point, Jake McCarthy is beginning to blossom.

McCarthy debuted last fall, but made the opening day roster this spring. He bounced around twice during the year between Reno and Phoenix, never really being able to carve himself a role in the first half. Let's start with the FanGraphs scouting report.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Virginia (ARI)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/45 50/50 35/40 60/60 55/55 50

"McCarthy made a swing change on his own during the shutdown and hit for surprising power during the 2021 season, albeit at affiliates with hitter-friendly environments. He now has a sizable leg kick and has become capable of lifting pitches in the middle third of the zone, including surprising power to the opposite field gap. He’s also the most capable center field defender on the Diamondbacks 40-man roster right now. While McCarthy’s swing is more athletic than it used to be, he still can’t lift pitches in the lower third of the zone and big league arms will likely be able to limit his damage by living down there. He still has roster utility as an okay lefty hitter who can play a good center field, and there’s a chance he continues to refine his stroke in a way that creates more meaningful impact on balls in play, but for now we have McCarthy evaluated as a fifth outfield contributor."

Through 66 PA in April and May his numbers looked like this:

Season Tm PA BB% K% BB/K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+
Total ARI 66 7.6% 34.8% 0.2 .200 .262 .317 .578 .117 .306 5 -2.8 .257 60

Those are not good! A wRC+ of 100 is average, and he was significantly below that. The strikeout rate was not good at all, and we can't even say he was unlucky with his .300 BABIP. Now, we know he played a bit in June, so let's add those stats:

Season Tm PA BB% K% BB/K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+
Total ARI 86 5.8% 34.9% 0.2 .228 .282 .405 .687 .177 .326 9 -0.7 .300 89

Now it only added 20 PA, but we started to see some improvement. We got to see a little bit more power, but that strikeout rate was still EXTREMELY concerning, especially for a guy who hovered around the low 20's in the minors.

Now here I want to back track a little bit. McCarthy's AAA stats in 165 PA looked VERY different than his major league stats. I won't blast the readers with another table but to summarize he had an 11.5 BB%, a 13.3 K% and a 165 wRC+. Those stats are good. That plate discipline is something he hasn't been able to replicate in the big leagues. Until now.

From July 11th (when he got called back up) through today, his advanced stats look like this:

Season Tm PA BB% K% BB/K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+
2022 ARI 126 9.5% 11.9% 0.8 .315 .384 .432 .816 .117 .354 19 4.9 .359 130

Now THAT'S the plate discipline we've been seeing in the minors. He has not only cut, but slashed that K% all the way down to 12%. I haven't read too much into why this sudden change has happened, but we were seeing these results in the minors. Perhaps McCarthy was trying to do too much to make a name for himself. Maybe he got more selective. Unfortunately, this is not my job, and finding the time to dig into the "why's" and also communicating that, is gonna have to be left up to the big boys.

Just for fun, lets dig into his Baseball Savant page. Some surface level things that popped out to me were

  • He does hit more ground balls than average (a low average launch angle supports this), which might be okay because
  • He is FAST. I'm talking 98th percentile sprint speed.
  • Low barrel rate and low max EV (can't figure out how to split by month on the site)
  • Nothing to write home about in his fielding

So the question is, where is he when the Dbacks are (hopefully) good again? Now, if you want to ask the projections, they still agree with FanGraphs. McCarthy's 3-year ZiPS projection is:

Season Team Level Age G AB PA H 1B 2B 3B HR R RBI BB SO SB CS BB% K% BB/K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wSB wOBA WAR
2022 ZiPS PROJ 24 102 373 412 83 51 17 6 9 46 37 33 116 25 6 8.0% 28.2% 0.28 .223 .292 .373 .665 .150 .297 2.2 .290 0.3
2023 ZiPS PROJ 25 98 360 400 80 48 17 6 9 45 37 34 118 22 5 8.5% 29.5% 0.29 .222 .296 .378 .674 .156 .303 2.0 .294 0.5
2024 ZiPS PROJ 26 99 360 401 79 47 17 5 10 46 37 35 120 22 5 8.7% 29.9% 0.29 .219 .295 .378 .673 .158 .299 2.0 .294 0.4

To me, this is a fair projection. They still see him as a 4th/5th outfielder because his change in plate discipline hasn't been sustained for enough time where the projections see this as who he is. Let's ignore that. I see a potential everyday outfielder. He's been worth 1.3 fWAR in 216 PA, and if you just double that in a full season of PA, that's a league average player. These are the type of guys who fly under the radar but are crucial to a teams success. These are the types of guys the Angels have been missing during the Trout/Ohtani playoff misses. You're able to round out a team with an affordable, valuable, and controlled player while in contention. While I'd love to see him raise that launch angle and hit the ball harder, I'd also love for him to become comfortable and maintain a playstyle that keeps him successful.

Maybe I'm biased because we share a last name, or that I am envious of his hair. Either way, he's taken that step forward that we were all hoping someone would after losing Peralta. So here's to hoping we get a few affordable years of a league average outfielder. Is it sad that I'm excited about that?

Let's enjoy the potential future.