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Diamondbacks Game Preview #76: 6/29 vs. Padres

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San Diego Padres v Arizona Diamondbacks Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images

Today's Lineups

Jurickson Profar - LF Josh Rojas - 3B
Austin Nola - C Alek Thomas - CF
Jake Cronenworth - 2B Ketel Marte - DH
Luke Voit - DH Christian Walker - 1B
Eric Hosmer - 1B David Peralta - LF
Ha-Seong Kim - 3B Daulton Varsho - RF
Trent Grisham - CF Buddy Kennedy - 2B
Jose Azocar - RF Geraldo Perdomo - SS
CJ Abrams - SS Jose Herrera - C
Mike Clevinger - RHP M. Bumgarner - LHP

After last night’s spectacular comeback, the D-backs will attempt to complete a sweep of the Padres (yes, it’s only two games - we’ll take our sweeps where we can get them, thank you very much). The comeback from six runs down, at the seventh-inning stretch, tied the record for the biggest comeback win by runs in Diamondback history. However, by Win Probability, it wasn’t actually ALL that. It only just snuck into the top ten in MLB this season, at equal eighth, with a low WP of 1.6%. That came in the top of the seventh, when the Padres had a man on first with one out. The biggest of 2022 is the Mets’ stunning comeback in Philadelphia, which had a low WP of just 0.20%.

Even for the D-backs, it’s far from their greatest WP comeback. You won’t be surprised to hear that was the famous Ryan Roberts’ walk-off, in extra innings against the Dodgers in 2011. That remains the most unexpected comeback in the majors since 2001, with a WP at one point of just 0.04%. And that’s merely on a “start of the at-bat” basis. Given how often the D-backs were down to their final strike there, it would likely be even smaller if you took the count into consideration. But by runs, it was the tenth time the team has staged a comeback from six down. Though it has been a while, with the last time being more than seven years ago, on June 3, 2015 against Atlanta. David Peralta played in that game too.

With tomorrow being an off-day, if I get a chance I might dig out the box-scores for all of those six-run comebacks, and see how they compare to last night’s. Did any of them involve the team being six runs down in the seventh inning? What I feel stands out is that the team did it yesterday, with nothing more than a double. Indeed, their last three runs all crossed home plate on plays other than a hit: two hit batters and a fielder’s choice. All told, I think it may be more fair to say the Padres lost last night’s game, rather than the Diamondbacks won it. However, it still looks like a stirring late comeback in the scorebook, and can only be admired as such.