Series Preview #22: Diamondbacks @ Padres

Note: Written Sunday afternoon, some stats referenced do not include Sunday

PADRES BASEBALL REFERENCE PAGE

The San Diego Padres were just swept in Colorado three straight by the Rockies, getting knocked out of first place in the process. Telescoping out however, they haven’t let adversity derail their season. In fact, they’ve thrived. Only ½ game behind the Dodgers in the NL West, they sit in the first Wild Card slot. This despite missing superstar Fernando Tatis Jr all year due to a wrist injury that’s not healing as quickly as expected (He’s yet to swing a bat)

Manager Bob Melvin has been dealing with health issues on and off this season. Melvin had prostate surgery on May 11^th. Fortunately, no cancer was found. Recently Melvin, along with bench coach Ryan Christenson have been out with Covid-19 since June 11th. While Melvin has yet to have the two consecutive negative tests required to return, he is reportedly asymptomatic at this time.

Starting pitcher and Cy Young candidate Joe Musgrove (8-0, 1.59 ERA) is also out with Covid-19 since June 17^th and Wil Myers is out until July with knee inflammation.

It’s not going to get any easier. Manny Machado was having an MVP caliber season, batting .329/.401/.548, 175 OPS+ with 12 homers and 46 RBI. He leads the NL with 4.0 baseball reference WAR and continues to be one of the best defensive third basemen in the league. Unfortunately for him he had to be removed from Sunday’s game with a gruesome ankle injury. While x-rays were negative he is clearly going to be out a while.

San Diego has gotten solid contributions from Jurickson Profar, (123 OPS+), Jake Cronenworth and Luke Voit (120 OPS+ each) and Eric Hosmer still has a 120 OPS+ despite a June slump. Their team OPS+ of 105 ranks 5^th in the NL. It’s always good to remember San Diego is ranked as the most pitcher friendly park in MLB . Accordingly it’s very important to reference the park adjusted stats as the raw unadjusted stats can be misleading.

San Diego’s team ERA+ is 112, ranking 4th in the NL. Their bullpen is very good. Left-Handed closer Taylor Rogers has 20 saves already, and Nabil Crismatt has a 1.39 ERA in 32 IP.

DIAMONDBACKS BASEBALL REFERENCE PAGE

The Diamondbacks started the season 6-11, and are 7-10 in June. In between they are 19-15. They just beat the first place Twins two out of three over the weekend on the heels of losing a series to the last place Reds. The team 92 OPS+ through Saturday ranked 13th in the NL, and 4.09 Runs Per game ranked 14th. The team 97 ERA+ and 4.67 Runs Allowed per game both ranked 10th in the NL.

The team’s 32-36 record, .471 W%, ranks 9th in NL, and falls pretty much in line with the above information. Below average but hanging in there. They are 11-10 in one run games and 6-12 in blowouts and have a 30-38 pythagorean W-L.

Ketel Marte has been day to day with a Left Hamstring Strain and Manager Torey Lovullo is hopeful Marte can play in this series. OF/C Daulton Varsho is day to day with a left heel contusion.

The offense has been feast or famine. They’ve scored zero or one run 6 times in 17 games this month. They’ve also scored 13 runs once, 8 runs twice, and 7 runs four times.

Buddy Kennedy was called up on Friday, and has given the team a jolt of energy, including a Fathers day grand slam on a 3-0 count. Christian Walker broke out of a slump with two solo shot on Sunday. Pavin Smith showed signs of breaking out of his month long slump with a homer and and single on Sunday as well.

STARTING PITCHING MATCHUPS

Davies has been pitching really well in June, lowering his ERA over a run his last three starts, (20.2 IP, 3 ER). He thew 7 scoreless innings against the Reds on June 14th in a game the D-backs lost in extra innings.

Darvish is having another solid season and has been sensational his last two outings throwing 8 innings and allowing just one run on the road in Chicago, and throwing 7 scoreless innings against the New York Mets prior to that.

Gallen bounced back from his worst start of the season June 10th and a rough beginning to his last outing on June 15th against the Reds to go 7 strong innings giving up just two runs without walking a batter.

Manaea, who shut out the D-backs for 7 innings in the 2nd game of the season, got roughed up by the Cubs for 5 runs on 8 hits including two homers in 4 IP.

Bumgarner continues to defy logic, reason, and geeks like me everywhere with run suppression far better than his peripherals might suggest. (See Roundtable from Sunday evening). Bumgarner worked around a lot of hard early contact to give up just two runs in six innings against the Minnesota Twins last Friday and got plenty of run support to pick up the victory.