Keegan Thompson - 67
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the team surpass this guess *if* they can remain healthy, but it would just barely be over. I’m of the belief that the team really needs to lean into the youth movement which would indicate not as many victories.
Dano_in_Tucson - 73Perhaps absurdly, I’m choosing to be hopeful that some of our farm talent (especially the arms who were rushed into service way too soon to fill roster gaps during the injury blight that was May and June 2021) can actually achieve some more consistent success, or at least competence, this year. That, along with some of the young bats arriving in vaguely respectable form and some better results from what I hope will be an improved coaching staff (again, especially on the pitching side), should move us back into something close to respectability on the field. I don’t have any belief that we’ll even break .500, but it seems reasonable to me to hope that we can at least finish the year better than ten wins shy of that mark.
SpencerSpice - 82
I am an optimist. I think we could be in line for massive years for Carson Kelly, Daulton Varsho and Ketel Marte at the plate with Gallen taking the next step on the mound. I don’t think we’ll make the playoffs, but there is talent on the roster. Just enough to surprise the Rockies and Padres and take third place. We really only need a couple dominos to fall correctly and have everybody else “regress” to the mean compared to 2021. Health willing, this is very possible.
Imstillhungry95 - 65
I want to be hopeful, but it’s just not there. This team wasn’t good last season, and sure, you can talk about Spring Training being messed up, short season, etc, but they also just weren’t good. Potentially even more damning is how little they did to get better. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are still the Dodgers, and now apparently the Padres are the Dodgers too. There isn’t much of a path forward this season as I see it.
That’s what I put last year in this article, with a win total of 72. The biggest difference is, however, I felt that was a good conservative projection for the team that they could squeeze by and maybe pick up 74 or 75. Heck, maybe even closer to .500 with a bit of luck.
This year, instead of being a conservative answer, 72 seems unachievable. I’d be thrilled with a 72 win season this year. Give me some scrap of reason to be optimistic about the future of this team. But I just don’t see it. Somehow, the moves they made are even less impressive than the moves in the 20-21 offseason. Melancon is a good closer, but he’s also old, and just by default unable to create his own save opportunities. They added Straily and Davies to the roster, but early returns say that might actually be a downgrade from last years rotation.
In addition to all that, we have some of the same elements that lead to 2020 in the mix too, with a delayed, shortened spring training. Hopefully Lovullo and Co. learned something from that and are able to apply it to this ST, but I guess we’ll find out. But they haven’t exactly been great at adapting so far, so I’m not holding my breath. Maybe the new management structure will help with that.
I want to be hopeful, but it’s just not there. Bring on the prospects, and wake me up in 2024.
Jack Sommers - 68
Regression to mean improves them from 52 to 62.
Young player improvement and growth pushes that up to 66Experienced coaching staff, Primarily Strom, and also getting McKay back, plus Bannister keeping Torey level, all makes a difference, thus adding 4-6 wins.
The team tops out at 70-72 wins on paper.
BUT, and it’s a big but....this team still does not have nearly enough depth. All it took was two injuries, Ahmed and Luplow, to already throw them into disarray. If they have a slew of injuries to front line players and pitchers anything remotely like last year, the win total could slump back down to mid or even low 60’s. Splitting difference between improved coaching but suspect depth, I’m going with 68-94
Turambar - 75
We can’t possibly, in this life or the next, be as bad as 2021. Hate on me all you want for that take, but after last year’s debacle I see only improvement for this team. Mind you that “improvement” will not equal a “good” team and we’ll still suck, but at least not be like 2021.
DBacksEurope - 70
In our own division we play the almighty Dodgers, an improved Padres with Bob Melvin as a manager, a stronger Rockies team and a bit of a question mark in the Giants, who are probably still better than the Diamondbacks with Gabe Kepler as a manager. So, I assume we end last in the NL West.
This season we also play the AL Central. That division is a bigger question mark to me as I am not sure how to assess the strength of those teams other than that the White Sox are clear favourites. And the rest of the NL...I don’t see any clear change from what I saw or expected last year.
I have that perception about the D-Backs as well. There is clearly more talent on the team, the bullpen might be a bit better, but the starting rotation is still a headache. Gallen and his injuries, Weaver and injuries and not providing length, Bumgarner and the doubt about his velocity and effectiveness...the only thing we know is that our ace will be Merrill Kelly, the pitcher we appreciate but probably 80% of all baseball fans doesn’t even know. But with a bit more talent, some weaknesses a bit more addressed and the FO abandoning the stupidity of multipositional flexibility, I guess Lovullo and Hazen are able to show an improvement in wins. My prediction puts them like 7th from the bottom, which doesn’t sound that much off. It will keep Lovullo and Hazen from being fired and probably on track for competing in 2025. Anything less than 70 wins and Lovullo is out.
Steven Burt - 65
Even when healthy, the D-backs lack standout talent around all aspects of the game. They have 1 above average hitter (Ketel Marte) and pitcher (Zac Gallen) with aging veterans surrounding young players. If things start slow, this team should sell off anything of value and go full-on rebuild. The case can be made they should do that regardless.
M_Lopez - 74
Team is looking good this Spring. Lots of yoots on the roster, bullpen has better arms, Marte and MKellys extension make me feel more confident in front office. Before Spring I was at 69 wins
Makakilo - 80
As you likely know my view is optimistic. Nevertheless, I kept an open mind, strived for an objective process, and was prepared to surprise myself. To see how I arrived at my predicted 80 wins, please see this AZ Snake Pit article (which is intended to post soon after this article is posted): https://www.sbnation.com/e/22771365
Justin27 - 67-70
I wish I had some scientific reasoning with charts and graphs... but I really just looked at the schedule and guesstimated one what we could do against out opponents. I did a couple of “upsets” (meaning instead of saying the Dodgers win every series I counted a series or two as us winning 2-1) And no coin flips were involved :P I actually think there will be some improvement. I would like to see what I predicted last year, but with the change over that might just be lost.
James Attwood - 68-70
I am not entirely convinced this team is any better than the one that took the field in 2021. On paper, the back of the bullpen should be better with the presence of Melancon. But that’s not saying much. The team squandered a great deal of potential development time last season. Now, that lost time is going to need to be made up. At the same time, a few lucky bounces wins them four or five more games all by themselves. So, I am going with a modest eight to ten game improvement. Winning 68 should be enough to save everyone’s jobs. Winning 70 should be one very successful season, as going from such low terrible depths to a full 10-win improvement is not an easy task.
Jim McLennan - 69
I start from a base level of 61 wins, last year’s Pythag - that factors in improvement due to our awful 1-run record in 2021. Normally, I’d factor in the impact of the off-season moves, but I don’t really see the off-season moves as moving the needle significantly. However, I do think the team will be better through aging and experience, as young players like Seth Beer and Daulton Varsho find their feet more. +3 wins for that. I’d also like think the team will be less snake-bit with injuries - though the last week or two seem to be trying to prove me wrong! But, fingers crossed, we won’t see 4/5 of our rotation on the IL simultaneously. +4 wins for that. The balanced schedule also helps, albeit marginally. +1 win. That gets me to a total of 69 for the season. Nice!
C. Wesley Baier - 81
I expect the team to be about .500. I don’t think they will be as bad as 2021, but I don’t expect them to be exactly good either. A .500 season would be a significant improvement.
Michael McDermott - 68
I don’t expect the team to be an outright dumpster fire as the depth is much better than it was a year ago, other than 3B which is held together with duct tape right now. The team should be able to recover from the Ahmed and Luplow injuries without too much drop-off to the next guy, but the situation at 3B will be key. I expect a team that looks much more competitive on a nightly basis, but the back-end of the bullpen scares me quite a bit. Can Mark Melancon and Ian Kennedy get big outs with diminished stuff? The good news is the team has plenty of fireballers in the system that project to be good bullpen candidates that they could use the next 3-5 years.
When I posted the poll about the D-backs farm system, more than 60% of you guys believe the team has a Top-5 farm system in baseball. The team will have four guys who I think will be regular contributors (Jameson, Henry, Ryne Nelson, Thomas) coming up this year to provide help so I think the rotation will finish somewhere in the middle of the pack. I’m still bearish on Jameson developing into a starter but that 100 MPH gas and filthy slider will be useful in the back-end of the pen as either a closer or fireman type reliever (I prefer the latter because Jameson’s pitching is must-see TV).
I’ll put 68 wins in the prediction, but if the top three pitchers in the rotation (Bumgarner, Kelly, Gallen) can make at least 85 starts I can see this team pushing .500 in September. My max prediction is 76 wins though should that happen. Last year was rock bottom for the franchise and already in 2022, they are trending upwards.
Averaging out all the above, we reach 72 wins (71.8, to be precise), though the range is quite wide. The low was 65, from ish95 and Steven Burt, while the high was SpencerSpice’s 82 win prediction. But it is interesting that even the most pessimistic of writers expects the team to be 13 games better than last year. So there’s that... But here’s a poll so you can make your predictions. Because of last year’s woeful tally, I have had to make some of the bands a little larger than I’d like, so please feel free to post a comment, giving your exact prediction and explaining your reasoning...
How many wins for the 2022 D-backs
This poll is closed
45 or fewer
83 or more