Arizona Diamondbacks April confidence poll

February results

Weird to think that a month ago, there was genuine doubt as to whether there would even BE a major-league season this year, with the carpet having just been pulled out from under the CBA negotiations. But, here we now are, on the verge of a full 162-game season - just a few days later than originally scheduled. Let’s start with, for the final time (obviously!) the results in the poll at the time as to when the season would start. Below are the figures for each category, from left to right for the start of March, February, January and November. I highlighted the most recent figure, and also the line which ended up the correct answer:

• On time 0% 5% 29% 31%
• Delayed, but in April 15% 30% 31% 16%
• In May 33% 31% 13% 13%
• In June 19% 16% 6% 3%
• In the second half 15% 10% 7% 9%
• Not at all 18% 9% 9% 3%

Yep, at the start of last month, more people thought the entire season would be canceled, than that it would begin in April. How quickly things turn. Hard to say how much this pessimism played into the confidence figures for the Diamondbacks. Here’s what we got at the beginning of March.

• 41% - 1 (not confident in the slightest)
• 22% - 2
• 15% - 3
• 15% - 4
• 1% - 5
• 4% - 6
• 0% - 7
• 1% - 8
• 1% - 9 (very, very, VERY confident)

A relatively significant jump in the “1” and “2” votes, combining for 62%, up from 54% at the beginning of February. This squeezed things at the top of the chart, with those voting 5+ dropping from 14% to just 9%. Whatever the reason, the average confidence dropped back down a quarter of a point, from 2.72 to 2.43. That’s an all-time low for (more or less) the opening of spring training, the previous worst having been 3.09 last season. Below, you can see the breakdown for the past 12 polls’ results, followed by the line graph showing the trends over this and previous seasons.

April poll

Well, at least I don’t have to double up on the poll situation, since I’m fairly confident the season is going to start on Thursday. Do not quote me on that, however. The team, however, has been quite active since last poll, mostly on the pitching front. Ian Kennedy, Oliver Perez and Zach Davies are now all on the roster since last time. But the big news is likely the locking up of Ketel Marte for the foreseeable future (and a couple of hours before this went live, the Merrill Kelly extension). Now, one move doesn’t make a rebuild, but it is without question the most significant long-term commitment by the D-backs since the signing of Madison Bumgarner. Does that affect how you feel?

As ever, feel free to explain your choice in the comments, especially if it has changed from the January one.