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Place Your Bets on the 2021 Diamondbacks: Welp

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Certain lines are not so much “under” as buried deeper than the Grand Canyon...

Aintree Races Photo by Michael Steele/Getty Images

In case you missed it, before the season we continued a long tradition of opening the doors to the SnakePit Casino. There, we gave people $1,500 SnakePit Dollars, and invited them to wager on a series of over/under lines, for D-backs player and team performance this season. We capped each individual bet at $500, so you have to make at least three bets. It’s time for the second update, as we are just past the half-way mark. As well as the financial ramifications, it actually offers a good “snapshot” of the overall state of the team.

For each bet below, you’ll first get the line. Then, in brackets, the amount wagered over and under by the 29 participating gamblers, rounded to the nearest dollar. Finally, we have the end-of-year pace, based on games to this point, and whether that number will be over or under the line. All stats are based on the position through 81 games, which was Tuesday’s game in St. Louis.

The lines

I suppose I should break these down in detail, but frankly, I’m too depressed. I will therefore limit myself to brief notes.

  • Diamondbacks Wins - 75.5 (3000-3500) - PACE 44 UNDER [was OVER]
    14 wins in the first 27 games. Just 8 more in the next 54.
  • Ketel Marte BA - .287 (3600-0) - PACE .370 OVER
    Ketel Marte HR’s - 21.5 (1800-500) - PACE 8 UNDER
    Ketel Marte RBI’s - 76.5 (1450-900) - PACE 42 UNDER
    There are 11 players who have appeared in more games for the D-backs than Marte. Hell, Kevin Ginkel has only a handful fewer. And he’s a reliever. Who sucked. BA might cross the line, but I don’t give the other two much hope.
  • Eduardo Escobar HR’s - 22.5 (1100-550) - PACE 34 OVER
    Eduardo Escobar RBI’s - 79.5 (300-1000) - PACE 106 OVER
    Pretty much the only member of the expected line-up to have avoided injury so far, and has taken advantage of it.
  • Christian Walker HR’s - 23.5 (2650-550) - PACE 8 UNDER
    Christian Walker RBI’s - 74.5 (2150-200) - PACE 36 UNDER
    Underperforming, when not injured.
  • Nick Ahmed HR’s - 17 (0-2600) - PACE 2 UNDER
    Nick Ahmed RBI’s - 68.5 (500-2100) - PACE 24 UNDER
    Injured, when not underperforming.
  • Kole Calhoun HR’s - 22.5 (300-400) - PACE 4 UNDER
    Kole Calhoun RBI’s - 62.5 (1600-699) - PACE 10 UNDER
    Just injured.
  • Carson Kelly HR’s - 16.5 (500-2551) - PACE 16 UNDER [was OVER]
    Well, last time out I mocked DbacksEurope for gleefully pouncing on the under, and Kelly hit six home-runs in the first 23 games. However, he had only added two since, and now has a broken wrist. This one has just slid under the line, but will likely depend on how much time Kelly misses.
  • Madison Bumgarner Wins - 8 (3550-1500) - PACE 8 PUSH [was OVER]
    Madison Bumgarner Strikeouts - 132.5 (3050-800) PACE 124 UNDER [was OVER]
    After three wins in his first six starts, this looked to be a cruise for the over. However, he has just one W in two months since the end of April, that coming back on May 11. Could still go either way, depending both on when he comes back, and how he pitches when he does.

Standings

We have a new leader at the half-way stage, gzimmerm zooming all the way up from -300 to a perfect +1,500. Their bets on team wins, Kelly HR and MadBum K’s also crossed the line in their favor since the last update, joining Walker HR and Marte RBI, to go 5-for-5. On the other hand, previous leader SpencerSpice saw team wins and Kelly HR now sit against them, and so plummet from +1,500 to barely breaking even at +100. But some things don’t change. AzDbackfanInDc remains at the bottom, but does now have sole possession of last place. I trust no-one sent him details of how to bet real money, in response to his GDT request last week. That would be asking for trouble...

Player - Balance

  1. gzimmerm - S$1,500
  2. Keegan Thompson - S$900
  3. piratedan7 - S$750
  4. DBacksEurope - S$500
  5. Hannibal4467 - S$500
  6. Jack Sommers - S$500
  7. kilnborn - S$500
  8. Preston Salisbury - S$400
  9. JoeCB1991 - S$300
  10. MrMrrbi - S$300
  11. NikT77 - S$250
  12. VinceJ_138 - S$200
  13. SpencerSpice - S$100
  14. SenSurround - S$100
  15. Dschumac - S$0
  16. EdTheRed99 - S$0
  17. bklapes32 - S$0
  18. ryeandi - S$0
  19. Imstillhungry95 - S$0
  20. Justin27 - S$0
  21. Diamondhacks - S$0
  22. Xerostomia - -S$250
  23. Makakilo - -S$300
  24. Michael McDermott - -S$300
  25. makattack71 - -S$300
  26. Steven Burt - -S$400
  27. Schilling2001 - -S$1,000
  28. GuruB - -S$1,000
  29. AzDbackfanInDc - -S$1,500

All told, the collective balance is still positive, but it drifted towards a more even line, at +1,750 SnakePit dollars. Except for Bumgarner, most lines don’t seem likely to change in the second half, but Madison will potentially determine the casino’s overall profitability this year.