Arizona Diamondbacks June confidence poll

May results

Flashback to the beginning of May. Difficult though it may be to believe at the present time, the Diamondbacks had done a sterling job over the first month of the season. Despite a slow of injuries, they had posted a 14-12 record, their best for a month since the end of 2019. While that was still only good enough for fourth in the division, there was hope the team could contend for a wild-card spot, especially if health was sustained. After record low expectations on Opening Day, a rebound seemed likely. So here are the result from a month ago.

• 3% - 1 (not confident in the slightest)
• 0% - 2
• 6% - 3
• 10% - 4
• 35% - 5
• 29% - 6
• 11% - 7
• 2% - 8
• 5% - 9 (very, very, VERY confident)

It’s a huge change. Remember, at the start of April, a absolute majority (53%) of votes were in the “1” or “2” categories. A month later, there were less than a handful of the 108 ballots at that level, just 3%. Most had migrated into the “5” or “6” it seems. those two now representing 64% of the votes, compared to 9% on Opening Day. The overall average more than doubled, jumping up from 2.67 at the beginning of April, to 5.43 at the beginning of May. The 2.76 point increase was the greatest increase in the history of our confidence polls, breaking the previous positive improvement of 2.45, between August-September 2019.

Below, you can see the breakdown for the past 12 polls’ results, followed by the line graph showing the trends over this and previous seasons.

June poll

And then, May happened. The worst calendar month in franchise history, breaking a 17-year mark set by the dismal 2004 team. Just five wins in twenty-nine attempts. That’s pretty sucky, to put it mildly. Obviously, injuries play a part, but there’s only so far that can go. The team as a whole had an OPS of .658 in May. In other words, like Jarrod Dyson (career OPS = .651). Starters were 3-16 with a 5.42 ERA. Relievers had a 5.52 ERA. There was hardly an area where the team performance could be said to be competent. And so, we poll. I would not be in the least surprised if we follow up last month’s spike with a crash of equal or even greater proportions. But, let’s see:

The poll is below, feel free to explain your choice in the comments, especially if it has changed from the May poll.