Arizona Diamondbacks February confidence poll

January results

This month’s word is graupel. Per Wikipedia, “Also called soft hail or snow pellets, is precipitation that forms when supercooled water droplets are collected and freeze on falling snowflakes, forming 2–5 mm (0.08–0.20 in) balls of rime. Graupel is distinct from hail and ice pellets.” I mention this because we got some in Phoenix the Monday before last, a rare chilly phenomena in the Valley of the Sun. But it was appropriate, given the D-backs’ off-season remains largely frozen in place like a disgruntled woolly mammoth, awaiting a thaw which will eventually come soon. This inertia might just be reflected in last month’s confidence figures.

• 19% - 1 (not confident in the slightest)
• 21% - 2
• 19% - 3
• 19% - 4
• 6% - 5
• 6% - 6
• 1% - 7
• 1% - 8
• 6% - 9 (very, very, VERY confident)

Yeah, you’ll understand why I was tapping on the glass case of this poll, wondering if perhaps it needed new batteries. Confidence generally remains low, heavily concentrated in the #1-4 range of voting. The “6” block was the only one to move by more than 2.5%, dropping from 11 to 6 percent. But all told, the average figure barely moved, dropping by just two-hundredths of a point, from 3.41 to 3.39. There hasn’t been a smaller change, month to month, for almost five years. The first two polls, in Jan/Feb 2016, returned figures of 6.74 and 6.73 respectively.

Below, you can see the breakdown for the past 12 polls’ results, followed by the line graph showing the trends over this and previous seasons.

On the plus side, the current figure is no longer the lowest for the month in poll history, where it had been for the last couple of surveys. 2021 starts off above the 3.09 figure posted in 2019. Woo-hoo!

February poll

I can’t say I am expecting anything significant this month either, unless you are tremendously excited about the signing of Joakim Soria, for some reason. Personally, the lack of roster moves, if understandable, does make it hard to get enthusiastic about the coming season - especially coming off a last-place finish. Still, at least we’re not the Rockies. So we’ve got that going for us.

The poll is below, feel free to explain your choice in the comments, especially if it has changed from the January poll.