On the difference between picking #1 and #2 in the draft

Josh VanMeter’s walk-off shot at Chase Field this year prevented the team from tying the mark for losses in a season. But it also tied the team with the Orioles for the worst record in 2021. Under current rules, previous seasons are used to determine draft order. In 2020, the teams had the same 25-35 record. But in 2019, Baltimore were worse, and so they currently would get the first pick in the 2022 draft. Now, that may or may not be the case under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement - the current one expires at the end of this year, and many people think an NBA-like lottery will be introduced. But, for now, it appears the wins last night and this afternoon mean Arizona will pick second, rather than first, next summer.

The result of that will depends on the particular players chosen: we’re still a long way off, and a lot can change between now and then. But we can look at the history of the first and second round picks and compare the production across them, to get a broad idea of what to expect. Below, you’ll see the #1 and #2 picks in each draft since the very first June draft, in 1965:

Some years, the #1 is clearly better. Some years the #2 is better. Sometimes, both end up being kind of meh or worse - in 2014, neither the #1 or #2 ended up reaching the majors. Sometimes, they are both awesome: in 1985, you got B.J. Surhoff and Will Clark, and we’d be fine with either of those. But I did the math. The average #1 has been worth 22.5 bWAR; the average #2 has been worth 15.1 bWAR, a difference of over seven wins. Now, that is skewed by the outliers. The #1s include two Hall of Famers in Chipper Jones and Ken Griffey Jr, plus a third who would be in there if not for his PED issues, in Alex Rodriguez. They are all better than any #2 pick in baseball history.

So, perhaps it’s fairer to look at the median #1 and #2 - when you rank them by production, that’s the player who sits exactly in the middle. 50% of picks are better, 50% are worse. That gets us for #1 and #2 pics respectively to be Shawon Dunston and, ironically, Travis Lee. They were worth 11.5 and 7.3 bWAR, so you are still looking at 4.2 bWAR. That’s cheap production that the team will have to make up elsewhere, typically by paying for it in free agency. The cost of a win there is currently considered to be around about $8 million, so you could say that VanMeter’s homer at Chase Field cost the Diamondbacks over $30 million, in terms of the production drop-off at #2, lost wins which need to be covered.

However, it is worth noting that this difference is over the course of their entire career, and when you slice it up per season, it’s going to be rather less than one win. Now, one win can still be very, very important - just ask the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. But it’s not worth getting bent out of shape, in the way social media would have you believe [if you want a good demonstration of why Twitter is a cesspool of worthless takes, the team’s mentions tonight will provide more than ample evidence]. The #1 pick has, clearly, been better overall. The evidence from history is unimpeachable. But in any given draft that is definitely not guaranteed to be the case, and that’s what matters to the Diamondbacks

This is where I post the obligatory reminder that Mike Trout, the best player of the current generation, went 25th in the draft. 22 different teams had the opportunity, but decided not to select him. The Diamondbacks decided not to select Trout TWICE, choosing Bobby Borchering and A.J. Pollock instead. Hell, he wasn’t even the Angels’ first pick; they’d already selected Randal Grichuk when they chose Trout. This is perhaps where the MLB draft differs from other sports; there’s no such thing as a “guaranteed” prospect. So even if Elijah Green makes it to next summer as the #1 pick, his path from there to the majors, never mind Cooperstown, is a fraught one.

Indeed, the more recent history in the draft shows us this. The last time the #1 ended up being clearly better was back in 2012. when you had Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton as the first two picks. Since then, the #1 has been largely empty, while #2’s have included Kris Bryant and Alex Bregman. The latter was the #2 the last time the Diamondbacks had the first overall pick, and while Dansby Swanson had proven a serviceable major-leaguer, he’s no Bregman. So, first or second will definitely give the Diamondbacks a shot at picking a very good player. Hopefully, Mike Hazen and the rest of the front-office will do their research, and whoever they choose will end up more Reggie Jackson than Tyler Kolek.

The reality is, we just don’t know. Not tonight, and not next summer either. We won’t be able to look back and see what difference it makes, potentially not until 2030 or beyond. I strongly recommend not worrying about it tonight.