There’s typically not much motion over the winter, unless there’s a significant move made. And that’s what we find here, with most of the confidence scores from the start of December, coming in within 2% of the figure returned at the start of November. Here are the final numbers for 2020.
- 17% - 1 (not confident in the slightest)
- 20% - 2
- 19% - 3
- 22% - 4
- 5% - 5
- 11% - 6
- 3% - 7
- 0% - 8
- 3% - 9 (very, very, VERY confident)
The main difference is in the 4 and 5 categories. On November 1, those came in at 10% and 16% percent respectively. While they combine for almost the same total on December 1, it looks like two-thirds of the 5’s became slightly less confident over the month, and dropped a notch to become 4’s. That was the main factor in the overall average dropping by about one-third of a point, going from 3.73 to 3.41. For the second poll in a row, it’s the lowest figure we’ve had at this point in the year; there was no December poll in 2019, but given the previous and subsequent polls there were both above six, seems safe to admit last year wouldn’t have come in below this one.
Below, you can see the breakdown for the past 12 polls’ results, followed by the line graph showing the trends over this and previous seasons.
In the absence of any moves by the Diamondbacks, it seems likely that any changes in confidence will be the result of extra-state activities. In particular, the Padres apparently pushing all their chips into the middle of the table and going for it. There’s no doubt that, on paper at least, their acquisitions of Snell, Darvish, etc. do make it more difficult for the D-backs this year. But does that impact your confidence in the team? Or are you only concerned about what the team does, rather than factors over which they have little or no control?
The poll is below, feel free to explain your choice in the comments, especially if it has changed from the December poll.
How confident are you about the Diamondbacks?
This poll is closed
1 (not confident in the slightest)
9 (very, very, VERY confident)