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Preview #41: 9/6, Diamondbacks @ Giants

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We enter the final third of the season. Where does this season’s record rank in franchise history?

Colorado Rockies v Arizona Diamondbacks Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images

Today's Lineups

DIAMONDBACKS GIANTS
Tim Locastro - CF Austin Slater - DH
Kole Calhoun - DH Donovan Solano - 2B
David Peralta - LF Mike Yastrzemski - RF
Eduardo Escobar - 3B Evan Longoria - 3B
Josh Rojas - 2B Wilmer Flores - 1B
Stephen Vogt - C Darin Ruf - LF
Nick Ahmed - SS Daniel Robertson - SS
Jake Lamb - 1B Mauricio Dubon - CF
Jon Jay - RF Chadwick Tromp - C
Alex Young - LHP Johnny Cueto - RHP

The Diamondbacks reach the two-thirds point of the season with a mark of 15-25. Up-scaled to a 162-game season, that would be a 61-101 record, the second-worst in franchise history. It’s be ahead only, of course, the 51-win nightmare of 2004 - that seems to have cropped up quite a lot in previews of late... However, it’s probably not quite a fair comparison, as shorter seasons lend themselves to more extreme records. For example, it’s rare for major-league teams to lose more than two-third of their games in a 162-game season. Only six have done so in the wild-card era. But in the NFL, teams lose two-thirds of the time (5-11 or worse), regularly: seven did so, in the 2019-20 season alone.

To try and figure out the equivalent, I looked at the odds of a .500 team going 15-25 or less over 40 games, just through randomness. Turns out, there’s a 7.7% chance of that. Now, over a 162-game season, what number of wins has that same 7.7% odds of happening by chance? It’s not 61 - that only has a 0.1% chance. Turns out, the closest match for a 162-game season is 71 wins, with 6.8% odds of happening to a .500 team by chance. So, by this method. allowing for the shorter schedule of games played, the D-backs current record would be equivalent to slightly more than 71 wins. Still not great, but only the lowest since 2016, rather than 2004.

Pre-game audio from Torey Lovullo

  • Caleb Smith: is throwing his sim game today. No reports back yet. The plan was for him to throw five innings and 65 pitches.
  • Josh Van Meter: Still no indication when he will join the club. Very vague if or when they plan to use him in MLB this year.
  • Ketel Marte: Out of the lineup again after just sitting on Thursday in LA. Torey insists he’s doing fine and there are no injuries. I asked him if his back was an issue, in lieu of the swing mechanics changes we’ve seen this year. While he didn’t rule out the possibility that the back was a factor, Torey said he felt it was mostly timing issues. I bring this up in more detail in the Round Table to be published tonight. Listen for Torey’s fuller explanation.
  • Madison Bumgarner: He did not have chance to talk with Bumgarner after his outing. He saw him on the field but MB was talking to someone else.