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Place Your Bets 2020: The Reckoning Part 2

And the winners are,,,

View of Neon Signs on Las Vegas Street

Before we get to the individual results (though ‘hacks already spoilered the winners in the comments), here are a few communal results.

  • Biggest profit - Zac Gallen Wins OVER, S$3,526.34
  • Biggest loss - Diamondbacks Wins UNDER, S$2,816.22
  • Most wagered - Diamondbacks Wins, S$4,816.22 by 13 people
  • Least wagered - Starling Marte HR, S$162.99 by 3 people (and two of those, for S$150, were the ones who bet on every category!)

All told, the house took a loss this year of S$3,223.52 on wagers of S$27,000. That’s the second year in a row, although the deficit was considerably down on 2019’s S$9,672.76, both in absolute and percentage terms. The casino is still turning a profit over a three-year span, thanks to the pounding punters took in 2018, when the collective loss was close to sixteen grand. The success of customers is a bit surprising, considering the team’s disappointing season; usually, fans like to be optimistic e.g. betting the over on wins, leaving them vulnerable if there’s sharp under-performance, as this year. The “mistake” bet of Ahmed HR, which pulled in $3,014.33 was responsible for the bulk of the profit.

Individual results

  • kilnborn: $1,500.00
  • Jack Sommers: $1,500.00
  • Craig’s City Counsell: $1,500.00
  • $900.00
  • AzDbackfanInDc: $500.00
  • NikT77: $300.00
  • JoeCB1991: $300.00
  • MrMrrbi: $300.00
  • SenSurround: $123.52
  • MikeDavisAZ: -$300.00
  • suroeste: -$300.00
  • Imstillhungry95: -$300.00
  • VinceJ_138: -$300.00
  • gzimmerm: -$300.00
  • ryeandi: -$300.00
  • Makakilo: -$500.00
  • repre: -$500.00
  • DBacksEurope : -$900.00

We find ourselves in a three-way tie for first-place, with kilnborn, Craig’s City Counsell and Jack Sommers each hitting all of their bets, walking out of the SnakePit Casino with double what they came in with. However, I pronounce kilnborn as the 2020 champion, based on them spreading their wager over FIVE different bets, while the other two went the minimum route, going three x S$500. Even more impressively, kilnborn didn’t just follow the herd. In three categories (Ahmed RBI OVER, Ray K’s UNDER and Bradley Saves UNDER), they were the only one of the 18 entrants to bet on the winning side.

All told, contestants were evenly split between winners and losers, with nine on each side of breaking even. However, the winners were generally more profitable: while three people walked away with the maximum possible gains, no-one this year lost all their bets. The closest to that, and thus occupying last place this year, was DBacksEurope. He may have been first in line to place his bet, but was only saved from a complete wipe-out by Carson Kelly falling short in home-runs.

We’ll be back in 2021, though I’m thinking there may be some changes. I may drop the maximum bet from S$500 to S$300, to make you consider more categories. Or I may even make it a straight prediction contest, with you being required to predict over/under for all the lines. If I do that, it’ll be through a form, so you just need to click to pick. That will also make it “blind” in that you don’t get to see previous choices when you make yours. Will chew it over during the winter... Thanks to all participants, congratulations to kilnborn, and see you all in 2021!