Arizona Diamondbacks September confidence poll

August results

We checked in just after the first “hard” trade deadline at the end of July, which say the team make a couple of very significant moves. They dealt Zack Greinke to the Astros for a slew of prospects - including Josh Rojas, who is already making an impression in the majors for us. They also acquired Zac Gallen from the Marlins, and beefed up the pitching staff with the arrival of veteran “innings eater (TM)” Mike Leake. Though the early returns on those two trades have been... kinda different. But in terms of the nebulous term which is “confidence”, would the D-backs’ universe see this as throwing the towel in, or building for the future? Here are the result from the beginning of August.

• 19% - 1 (not confident in the slightest)
• 8% - 2
• 6% - 3
• 10% - 4
• 15% - 5
• 14% - 6
• 9% - 7
• 8% - 8
• 10% - 9 (very, very, VERY confident)

The answer appears to be a bit of both. 1’s and 2’s both increased, the former ticking up sharply from 11% to 19%. But 7’s, 8’s and 9’s also increased, the last of those going from 2% at the start of July to 10% as we began August. It was the middle ground which largely lost the ground. The range of 3-5 covered the majority of votes (54%) at the beginning of July, but over the spell of a month, that collapsed to less than one-third (31%). People were just more firmly optimistic or pessimistic, and it was the former which carried the say, with an increase in average confidence from 4.33 to 4.78. This was no surprise: once again, the direction of change matched the 2018 graph, as it has, every month this year.

Below, you can see the breakdown for the past 12 months’ results, followed by the line graph showing the averages. Again, note how the green line (2019) is mirroring the changes in the yellow one (2018). Though I suspect that’s a trend we will likely not see continue in the September poll...

September poll

Since trading away its Opening Day starter and best pitcher, the Diamondbacks have gone 21-12, and suddenly find themselves with a legitimate shot at the wild-card as we head into the final twenty games of the season. But is this legitimate, in terms of the team’s performance, or is it just regression to the somewhat above .500 level of their true talent? There’s no argument, the team are now winning the close games they lost in the middle of the season: they are 9-1 over the last ten games decided by one or two runs. Is that something they can sustain?

As ever, here’s the poll. Discuss where you stand in the comments?