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Diamondbacks 2019 Payroll Update

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With a peek into 2020 and 2021 as well

Wild Card Workout Photo by Sarah Sachs/Arizona Diamondbacks/Getty Images

Mike Hazen was charged by Ken Kendrick and the rest of ownership to cut payroll, don’t mortgage the future in any way, AND get better all at the same time. The first two charges have have been successfully navigated. The third is still TBD with the team at .500 56-57 and 3.5 Games out of the Wild Card.

On March 27 we estimated opening day Payroll to be about 123M and year end projected payroll to be approximately 128M. Of course without knowing what moves they might make at the trade deadline that was mostly based on injury replacements/callups during the season adding a few million, as it always does.

After going player by player and being as detailed as possible I come up with Approximately 124M projected year end payroll for 2019. (Last year they ended up about 141 M) Note, this does not include other player expenses, such as insurances and benefits.

It may seem odd at first glance to think that after trading Zack Greinke and off loading his salary the difference for 2019 is not all that great from the pre season estimate. However keep in mind several things:

1.) According to Cot’s info, the DBacks had to absorb the 2M assignment bonus Zack got for being traded. That eats into the 2019 Salary savings. The savings are more significant for 2020-21, Over 20M total.

2.) Adding Blake Swihart to the roster added almost 800K in pro rated salary

3.) Greg Holland has met or will meet over 500K in IP and Games Finished bonuses I did not not account for in the initial spread sheet March 27th.

Below the spread sheet I have copied some notes from Cot’s Baseball Contracts page

Other resources drawn upon were Baseball-Reference and Roster Resource . My numbers are a little different, but I’m confident they are more accurate because I am only focused on one team and went player by player pre and post trade deadline. I also tried to dial in the call ups and figure out an estimate for MLB service time so their salary numbers are going to be within 50-100K of actual per player. If there are any specific player questions about how I calculated, please ask me in the comments section

EDIT: A couple of roster moves this week, but no material difference to the bottom line payroll.

2019 Updated Payroll List

Player Owed thru 7/31/19 Owed ROS 19 Total 2019 Remarks
Player Owed thru 7/31/19 Owed ROS 19 Total 2019 Remarks
Zack Greinke 24,194,000 5,333,334 29,527,334 See Comment
Yasmany Tomas 10,428,400 5,071,600 15,500,000
David Peralta 4,709,600 2,290,400 7,000,000
Eduardo Escobar 4,203,467 1,962,963 6,166,430
Robbie Ray 4,070,440 1,979,560 6,050,000
Taijuan Walker 3,380,820 1,644,180 5,025,000
Jake Lamb 3,246,260 1,578,740 4,825,000
Adam Jones 3,195,800 1,554,200 4,750,000 Bonuses thru 550 PA added
Alex Avila 2,859,400 1,390,600 4,250,000
Steven Souza 2,775,300 1,349,700 4,125,000
Jarrod Dyson 2,523,000 1,227,000 3,750,000
Wilmer Flores 2,523,000 1,227,000 3,750,000 2020 500K Buyout
Nick Ahmed 2,464,130 1,198,370 3,662,500
Greg Holland 2,556,640 1,243,360 3,800,000 Adding Estimated Bonuses
Yoshihisa Hirano 2,018,400 981,600 3,000,000
Merrill Kelly 1,345,600 654,400 2,000,000
Ketel Marte 1,345,600 654,400 2,000,000
Andrew Chafin 1,308,596 636,404 1,945,000
Archie Bradley 1,231,224 598,776 1,830,000
T.J. McFarland 941,920 458,080 1,400,000
Matt Andriese 618,976 301,024 920,000
Blake Swihart 536,662 260,992 797,654 Pro Rated since Trade
Zack Godley 410,004 199,396 609,400 DFA'd
John Ryan Murphy 407,394 0 605,520 Traded
Caleb Joseph 340,000 240,000 600,000 2019 Split Contract 1.1 MLB/250K MiLB
Luke Weaver 391,099 190,201 581,300
Silvino Bracho 386,187 187,813 574,000
Matt Koch 381,881 185,719 567,600 DFA'd
Carson Kelly 376,768 183,232 560,000
Christian Walker 376,633 183,167 559,800
Ildemaro Vargas 374,750 182,250 557,000
Yoan Lopez 374,682 182,218 556,900
Tim Locastro 250,000 180,000 430,000 Est Serv Time X Lg Min
Taylor Clarke 155,000 150,000 305,000 Est Serv Time X Lg Min
Alex Young 93,000 180,000 273,000 Est Serv Time X Lg Min
Mike Leake 0 252,942 252,942 See Comment
Kevin Cron 125,000 85,000 210,000 Est Serv Time X Lg Min
Zac Gallen 0 180,000 180,000 Est Serv Time X Lg Min
Stefan Chricton 93,000 85,000 178,000 Est Serv Time X Lg Min
Jon Duplantier 85,000 85,000 170,000 Est Serv Time X Lg Min
Domingo Leyba 35,000 85,000 120,000 Est Serv Time X Lg Min
Jimmie Sherfy 25,000 85,000 110,000 Est Serv Time X Lg Min
87,157,633 36,698,621 124,074,380

Greinke Note: DBacks will pay Houston/Greinke 26 Million

$2M assignment bonus on 11/1/19,

$3,333,334 on 10/15/19

$10,333,333 each on 7/1/2020 and 7/1/2021

Previous deferred money has already been paid into Anuity accounts.

Mike Leake Note: Seattle pays Arizona $18,982,258, including

$4,982,258 on 9/1/19,

$9M in 2020 (paid in four installments of $2.5M each on 4/15, 6/1, 7/15 and 9/1)

$5M buyout 1/15/21

Looking forward to 2020

The total to Greinke, Tomas, and the four guaranteed contracts for Escobar, Marte, Kelly and Leake comes out to 47.5 M

Arbitration Estimates for all 11 Arb players comes out 49.5 M.

Full and part time MLB Pre Arb players are estimated at 6.64 M

The total comes out to 104M, and if options for Bloth Flores and McFarland are picked up it comes out to 112 M

There are still several full time roster spots to fill in under this scenario, roughly four for opening day, two if Flores and T.J. are retained.

In a recent article by Nick Piecoro, Mike Hazen said he would save about 20M each of the next two years from the Greinke Contract. I can’t quite figure out exactly how to reconcile that number, but of course he knows better than I . That said, going player by player, and simply plugging in the reported numbers that Arizona needs to send to Houston, as I did below and then factoring in increased ARB costs, the 104M total figure does give them about 20M to work with next year and keep payroll roughly where it’s at now. So in a sense it adds up.

Hazen was also quoted as saying:

“I’m assuming there’s going to be some more freedom to explore some things we haven’t explored in the past,”

Hard to know what that means. It’s not a lot of money to use in on marquee free agents. But in lieu of changes in the market the last couple of years, it does give him the opportunity to spread the money around on underpriced veterans. Or it could allow him to simply extend one or two players heading towards free agency he might not normally have been able to extend in the past. Those are all points to discuss today and in the future. We’ll all have fun speculating. However the only thing we know for sure when it comes to moves to be made by the Mike Hazen lead front office is we’ll know when we know, and not before. This is one tight ship folks.

2020 Payroll So Far

Player 2020 Remarks
Player 2020 Remarks
Adam Jones FA
Alex Avila FA
Jarrod Dyson FA
Greg Holland FA
Yoshihisa Hirano FA
Yasmany Tomas 17,000,000
Zack Greinke 10,333,333 Owe to Houston
Eduardo Escobar 7,166,667
Mike Leake 6,000,000 Balance 14 M Paid by Seattle
Ketel Marte 4,000,000
Merrill Kelly 3,000,000 2021 500K Buyout
David Peralta 9,250,000 2020 ARB 3 Est.
Robbie Ray 9,000,000 2020 ARB 3 Est.
Jake Lamb 6,500,000 2020 Arb 3 Est.
Taijuan Walker 5,500,000 2020 ARB 4 Est.
Nick Ahmed 5,000,000 2020 Arb 3 Est.
Steven Souza 4,750,000 2020 Arb 3 Est.
Andrew Chafin 3,200,000 2020 Arb 3 Est.
Archie Bradley 2,800,000 2020-21 Arb 2-3 Est
Matt Andriese 1,400,000 2020-21 Arb 2-3 Est
Caleb Joseph 1,100,000 2019 Split Contract 2020 Arb 3 Est.
Blake Swihart 1,000,000 2020-21 Arb 1-2 Est
Luke Weaver 610,000 2020, lg Min, Plus X Full Season
Carson Kelly 610,000 2020, lg Min, Plus X Full Season
Christian Walker 610,000 2020, lg Min, Plus X Full Season
Yoan Lopez 610,000 2020, lg Min, Plus X Full Season
Silvino Bracho 600,000 2020, lg Min, Plus X Full Season
Zac Gallen 600,000 2020, lg Min, Plus X Full Season
Jon Duplantier 600,000 2020, lg Min, Plus X Full Season
Tim Locastro 300,000 2020, lg Min, Plus x 1/2 Season
Taylor Clarke 300,000 2020, lg Min, Plus x 1/2 Season
Alex Young 300,000 2020, lg Min, Plus x 1/2 Season
Kevin Cron 300,000 2020, lg Min, Plus x 1/2 Season
Stefan Chricton 300,000 2020, lg Min, Plus x 1/2 Season
Domingo Leyba 300,000 2020, lg Min, Plus x 1/2 Season
Jimmie Sherfy 300,000 2020, lg Min, Plus x 1/2 Season
Ildemaro Vargas 300,000 2020, lg Min, Plus x 1/2 Season
Wilmer Flores 500,000 Buyout, Team Option 6,000,000
T.J. McFarland 50,000 Buyout, Team Option 1,850,000
104,190,000

2021:

Well the good news is Tomas is off the books, and overall guaranteed contracts costs are down to 24M. Arb costs are very low due too, at just 11M, due to all the free agents potentially leaving. But obviously looking this far out we have no idea which pre arb players will actually be on the roster. And we don’t know if any of the potential free agents such as Ray, Ahmed, and Peralta will be extended. Or perhaps there will be a qualifying offer or two extended and accepted. Bottom line though is starting in 2021 the team will have a lot of payroll flexibility, but also a lot of players to replace.

2021 Payroll Estimates

Player 2021 Remarks
Player 2021 Remarks
David Peralta FA
Robbie Ray FA
Taijuan Walker FA
Jake Lamb FA
Steven Souza FA
Nick Ahmed FA
Andrew Chafin FA
Caleb Joseph FA
Mike Leake FA 18 M Mutual Option, Seattle Pays 5 M buyout
Zack Greinke 10,333,333 Owe to Houston
Eduardo Escobar 7,666,667
Ketel Marte 6,000,000
Archie Bradley 4,000,000 Arb 3
Matt Andriese 2,000,000 Arb 3
Blake Swihart 1,500,000 Arb 2
Carson Kelly 1,400,000 Arb 1
Luke Weaver 1,200,000 Arb 1
Silvino Bracho 900,000 Arb 1
Christian Walker 650,000 Pre ARB Estimates
Yoan Lopez 650,000 Pre ARB Estimates
Ildemaro Vargas 610,000 Pre ARB Estimates
Tim Locastro 610000 Pre ARB Estimates
Taylor Clarke 610000 Pre ARB Estimates
Alex Young 610000 Pre ARB Estimates
Kevin Cron 610,000 Pre ARB Estimates
Zac Gallen 610,000 Pre ARB Estimates
Stefan Chricton 610,000 Pre ARB Estimates
Jon Duplantier 610,000 Pre ARB Estimates
Domingo Leyba 610,000 Pre ARB Estimates
Jimmie Sherfy 610,000 Pre ARB Estimates
Merrill Kelly 500,000 Buyout, 4.25M Team Option
42,900,000