Short of something truly dramatic happening - and, by that, I mean a ten-game winning streak - this will the last one of these for the season. Arizona suffered a 3-7 stretch since we last checked in, dropping them back to two games below .500 and 51⁄2 games back of the second wild-card spot. They now have only the 10th-best record in the National League, and personally, as far as the standings go, I’m more interested in making sure the Dodgers do not clinch the National League West during the four-game set at Chase Field, coming at the end of next week. They enter play today 21 games up, and need to leave Chase 25.5 games ahead. The way Arizona have been playing, it’s not impossible.
Anyway, for what it’s worth, here are the current playoff odds across the five systems we’ve been monitoring. This is at the 130-game point, which was yesterday’s game in Milwaukee, and for good or bad, the series final this afternoon is not included.
- Fangraphs: 1.2% (division: 0.0%; wild-card 1.2%)
- Baseball Prospectus: 2.1% (division: 0.0%; wild-card 2.1%)
- FiveThirtyEight: 3% (division 0%; wild-card 3%)
- Numberfire: 1.4% (division: 0.0%; wild-card 1.4%)
- Baseball Reference: 3.3% (division < 0.1%; wild-card 3.3%)
That’s a a severe slashing across the board: more than 90% off in the majority of cases, such as Fangraphs, which dropped from 12.8% to 1.2%, or Baseball Prospectus, which imploded from 25.3% to 2.1%. Even the stalwart Baseball Reference, which had been holding on to the mirage created by Arizona’s run differential, has given up and now expects the D-backs to be no better than 80-82 at the end of the season. Overall, the combined value now stands at just 2.0%, a drop of 92 percent from the previous figure of 25.9%. Here’s the graph: please keep your hands and feet inside the vehicle at all times, and be sure to secure all loose objects properly.
I just hope that September is not as dismal as it was last season, or it’s going to be a long, dark month for the Diamondbacks.