In case you missed it, before the season we continued a long tradition of opening the doors to the SnakePit Casino. There, we gave people $1,500 SnakePit Dollars, and invited them to wager on a series of over/under lines, for D-backs player and team performance this season. We capped each individual bet at $500, so you have to make at least three bets. Today, we have the first update on the standings: as well as the financial ramifications, it actually offers a good “snapshot” of the overall state of the team.
For each bet below, you’ll first get the line drawn by Bovada.lv. Then, in brackets, the amount wagered over and under by the 37 participating gamblers, rounded to the nearest dollar. Finally, we have the end-of-year pace, based on games to this point, and whether that number will be over or under the line. All stats are based on the position through 108 games, which was Tuesday’s win over the Yankees.
NOTE. Betters should check the official spreadsheet for any errors on their wagers that occurred during transcription from their slips. While I checked totals. there’s a non-zero chance I flipped a bet from over to under or vice-versa somewhere.
- 2019 Wins: 75.5 (2746-5636) - PACE 81, OVER
While still ahead of the pace, this once is far from certain, and seems like it has a definite possibility to fall under the line. That will depend both on what moves the team makes at the deadline, and what impact (both directly and indirectly) this has on the team the rest of the way. If the team goes into sell mode, will this cause those remaining here to phone in the rest of the campaign. It would be interesting to look at the records of previous trade deadline sellers, and see how their performance compared before and after it. However, this still looks good, considering that the Diamondbacks only need to go 22-32 the rest of the way to cross this line.
- David Peralta - Total BA: .290 (752-2271) - PACE .280, UNDER (WAS OVER)
- David Peralta - Total HR’s: 24.5 (731-1092) - PACE 13.5, UNDER
- David Peralta - Total RBI’s: 75.5 (2283-190) - PACE 67.5, UNDER (WAS OVER)
A pair of stints on the injured list cost Peralta 25 games, and that might be enough to derail the counting stats here, though RBIs still has a solid shot. Home-runs look almost a lock to be under, with Peralta having gone more than a hundred plate-appearances since he hit his last one, all the way back on June 10. However, his average has also taken a sharp knock, since it reached .326 on May 13. The slump started before his injuries, though this may have been a factor. Still, we expect better from the man who was the highest-paid position player on the roster - at least until Yasmany Tomas showed up.
- Jake Lamb - Total HR’s: 24.5 (1436-4286) - PACE 4.5, UNDER
- Jake Lamb - Total RBI’s: 79.5 (1107-715) - PACE 18, UNDER
These are toast as well, thanks to Lamb having missed almost the entire first half of the season, losing 74 games to a quadriceps strain suffered while running the bases. The original estimate of six weeks ended up being about half of the actual time missed. His numbers since coming back haven’t been terrible: there or thereabouts on pace for the original line. But too much time has been missed for these even to be remotely possible. He needs 22 HR and 68 RBI in the final third of the season to make them pay the over. Though on the long-ball front, most people were skeptical of that anyway.
- Robbie Ray - Total Wins: 10.5 (4723-650) - PACE 13.5, OVER (WAS UNDER)
Ray got off to a slow start, taking six attempts to win his first game of the season. He caught up thereafter, but was still under the line at the half-way point, having a 5-5 record to that stage. However, four consecutive wins in July pushed Ray significantly forward, and he now only needs two wins over what’ll probably be eleven starts, in order to lock this up. Given good health, it seems all but certain he will turn this one into a nightmare for the house, with bets being on the over by a greater than 7:1 ratio. Note that wins count, regardless of for whom they are obtained...
- Steven Souza - Total HR’s: 20.5 (831-1065) - PACE 0, UNDER BOOK CLOSED
- Steven Souza - Total RBI’s: 68.5 (331-615) - PACE 0, UNDER BOOK CLOSED
Sad face emoji.
- Zach Greinke - ERA: 3.30 (2590-1083) - PACE 2.87, UNDER (WAS OVER)
- Zach Greinke - Total Strikeouts: 190.5 (486-1086) - PACE 192, OVER
- Zach Greinke - Total Wins: 12.5 (4473-0) - PACE 15, OVER
Greinke continues to be on pace for what is potentially going to be his best season since becoming an Arizona Diamondback. He hasn’t won a game since July 5, but five wins in April means he can cruise towards the finish line, needing three victories to cross the line. ERA also looks good, after a disastrous first three outings saw it sit at 7.16. The strikeouts had been in decline of late: in Mar/Apr he fanned 9.4 per nine innings, but that dropped to 7.2 and 6.3 in May and June respectively. However, July saw Zack rebound to strike out 29 in 26 innings of work, and if he maintains that over the last two month, the over there should be accomplished.
- Zack Godley - Total Wins: 10.5 (831-2992) - PACE 4.5, UNDER
He has actually won more games (two) since being moved to the bullpen than he had during his nine starts (one) - he has also picked up a pair of saves, on in an extra-inning game, the other a three-inning special. Still, who’d have bet on Opening Day, that Godley would have more saves than Yoshihisa Hirano, Archie Bradley or Yoan Lopez at this point? The wins are almost certainly impossible, unless trades denude our rotation to such a point that Godley goes back into the rotation, and pitches at Cy Young levels for the rest of the season. So, probably not.
Things have turned in favor of the bettors in this update, with the shift in Ray’s line being enough to overcome losses elsewhere, such as Peralta’s RBI dropping below the line. We now have two more people joining previous leader TucsonTim with a perfect record: The Lord Humungus (team wins, Lamb HR and Ray wins) and Craig’s City Counsell (team wins, Ray wins and Greinke wins) are both 3-for-3 as we enter the final third of the season. At the other end, though Sprankton and Sean Testerman are both sitting at -1,500 SnakePit dollars. We’ll see what the final 54 games might bring! Here are the full standings:
- Craig’s City Counsell: $1,500.00
- The Lord Humungus: $1,500.00
- TucsonTim: $1,500.00
- onedotfive: $1,000.00
- SenSurround: $939.76
- piratedan7: $900.00
- Jackwriter: $900.00
- MrMrrbi: $900.00
- DBacksEurope: $900.00
- Fangdango: $576.90
- NikT77: $500.00
- Jack Sommers: $500.00
- ponus: $500.00
- Makakilo: $500.00
- AzDbackfanInDc: $499.90
- Steven Burt: $346.14
- Vincej138: $346.14
- AZPerson: $300.00
- suroeste: $300.00
- JoeCB1991: $100.00
- GuruB: $100.00
- Hannibal4467: $100.00
- ryeandi: -$136.36
- Keegan Thompson: -$300.00
- Jander1023: -$300.00
- LafferCap: -$500.00
- Xerostomia: -$500.00
- red_leader: -$500.00
- Imstillhungry95: -$500.00
- Sprankton: -$1,500.00
- Sean Testerman: -$1,500.00