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Arizona Diamondbacks July confidence poll

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, since confidence this year is mirroring the 2018 path.

Detail of Martyrs on Cliff from The Martyrdom of 10,000 Christians Under King Sapor by Albrecht Durer Photo by Burstein Collection/Corbis/VCG via Getty Images

June results

The volatility of confidence this season seems particularly high. The results at the beginning of May saw an uptick of 1.80 points, but it was a fragile gain. The slump of May, while it may have been mild in comparison to the disaster which was the same month in 2018, gave back all that increase and then more. However, the sample size here was also the smallest in poll history, beating the previous low number of voters, from September last year. Still, let’s see what they had to say.

  • 18% - 1 (not confident in the slightest)
  • 13% - 2
  • 16% - 3
  • 21% - 4
  • 16% - 5
  • 12% - 6
  • 3% - 7
  • 0% - 8
  • 1% - 9 (very, very, VERY confident)

What we saw was an almost total collapse in the upper tier. More than three-quarters of people were at six or higher at the beginning of May, but that imploded to around one in six just a month later. However, there was no particular consensus about how far confidence should drop, with all five scores below that getting between 13 and 21 percent. The overall figure turned out to be 3.60, a drop of 2.69 from the previous month. That’s remarkably close to the drop we saw last May, which was 2.64, even though it was a significantly worse slump. The difference in win percentage between Apr/May in 2018 was 424 points, compared to “just” 222 points this year. Still not the worst decrease ever (3.02 in May 2016).

You want charts? I got ‘em... First, a breakdown of scores over the past year, and then the chart showing all average confidence scores.

Interesting to see how the lines for this year and last do mirror each other quite well. Both showed an increase through the off-season, a sharp result as the result of a strong first month’s performance, and then an even worse drop as that success proved unsustainable.

July poll

And, again just like last season, the team had something of a rebound last month. Though as with the “slump”, the improvement was not as marked as in 2018 (+143 points of WP, compared to +382 in the previous year - that was some serious first half roller-coaster shit). The Diamondbacks finished the month with a record of 15-13, which I’d say is better than it “feels”, perhaps because we only outscored the opposition by two runs in June, 136-134. They were 4-1 in one-run games there, although are still in the hole for the year, at a 13-17 record. They did improve their playoff odds, but only slightly: per Fangraphs, they now sit at 12.3%, compared to 9.2% at the end of May.

As we approach the trade deadline, the question of whether we will be buyers or sellers remains to be seen. This week’s games may clarify the answer there... though based on what we’ve seen, they probably won’t! But do you feel more confident about the team, after both a somewhat bounceback month, and the pick-heavy draft? As usual, please explain your answer to the poll below in the comments.

Poll

How confident are you about the Diamondbacks?

This poll is closed

  • 10%
    1 (not confident in the slightest)
    (14 votes)
  • 7%
    2
    (10 votes)
  • 14%
    3
    (19 votes)
  • 17%
    4
    (22 votes)
  • 22%
    5
    (29 votes)
  • 15%
    6
    (20 votes)
  • 6%
    7
    (9 votes)
  • 2%
    8
    (3 votes)
  • 2%
    9 (very, very, VERY confident)
    (3 votes)
129 votes total Vote Now