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2019 Draft Prospect Profile: Matthew Allan

Pitching is tough to find in this draft, but this is one prospect for Arizona fans to keep an eye on.

Matthew Allan

Seminole (FL) HS
B/T: R/R
Height/Weight: 6’ 03”, 210 lbs
Birth Date: 04/17/2001
College Commitment: Florida
FB- 60(65) Curveball- 60(60) Changeup- 55 (60) Control- 50 (55) Overall- 55

Allan is a strong, physical pitcher with a pair of potential plus offerings in a fastball that has touched 97 mph and a big, 12-to-6 diving curveball. Allan works out of a slow windup and throws from a three-quarter arm slot, but he struggled with command at times throughout the summer, though his as the summer progressed he did show signs of refining his command. He will need to continue to improve the consistency of his fastball command during the spring, as he would land his breaking ball for strikes more consistently than his heater. Allan also throws a firm, 87-89 mph changeup that could develop into a quality third pitch as well, already offering it up from the same slot and motion as his fastball.

Big, strong and physical, Allan has seen all of his stuff play up during his senior season. His four-seam fastball continues to touch 97 mph on a regular basis late into games, demonstrating that it wasn’t just the shorter stints of the showcase circuit that allowed him to pitch with max effort. He uses his frame to drive the ball down in the zone, but can pitch both up and down with his fastball well, getting plenty of swing-and-miss up high. Allan has already begun to get a feel for feeding off what the batter gives him,attacking hitters both in and out of the strike zone with his fastball. This is where he sometimes can still get a bit sloppy, but there are plenty of indications that better command is coming. He complements his fastball with a plus power curve he can throw for strikes at will, missing bats consistently. His changeup has also taken a step forward this season, giving him a third pitch that should rate at least above-average with some tremendous downward dive when he has it working right, having the action of a split-finger pitch.

The downside for Allan is in his mechanics. Several scouts do not like his arm action very much, especially on the back side, as he’s pretty late to get the arm up, and while the fastball is firm and he has started locating it well, it does not have great movement. Pitchers with velocity and location but not much movement can make that work just fine if they have other weapons hitters have to worry about. However, if Allan’s changeup does not continue to improve , allowing Allan to make hitters account for it, more advanced bats will be able to just hunt for anything straight, limiting how Allan attack them.

Outlook: The buzz around Allan is real. Despite his flaws, Allan continues to show that he has the ability to learn and develop, two things that will go far in convincing teams that the flaws in his game are fixable. If he is able to absorb advanced instruction, he is a top-of-the-rotation sort of pitcher.

Modern Comp: Dan Haren

Ceiling: Darryl Kile

Floor: Greg Harris

The Takeaway: Allan has been seen by many draft prognosticators as a top-10 pick. With the helium some college bats have been getting and some signability concerns attached to him, Allan has seen his position on many boards take a small slide. While many still see him as a potential top 10-15 pick, he has fallen into that section of the first round where just about anything goes. Many rumors have Allan seeking a $4 million signing bonus. If this is indeed the case, he will need to stay in the top-14 to get his wish, meaning the Diamondbacks would miss out on him. If that number is more of a guideline than a hard-and-fixed number, then the Diamondbacks may have a very real shot at him. Allan is a player to keep an eye on for both the #16 pick and for Arizona’s 11th round pick.