Arizona Diamondbacks May confidence poll

April results

I’m definitely noticing a trend. Over the four years we’ve now been running these monthly surveys, confidence always seems to tick up slightly at the beginning of March and April. Maybe it’s the smell of fresh-cut grass, and seeing out favorites taking the field again. Maybe it’s just relief that the long. dark NFL/NBA/NHL-infected winter is over. Maybe it’s the oft-repeated truism that everyone starts 0-0 on Opening Day. But hope truly does appear to spring eternal, and 2019 was no different. Here are the results from the poll at the beginning of April.

• 6% - 1 (not confident in the slightest)
• 6% - 2
• 15% - 3
• 21% - 4
• 17% - 5
• 23% - 6
• 10% - 7
• 0% - 8
• 0% - 9 (very, very, VERY confident)

Despite the complete lack of anyone daring to stick their head over the parapet for more than a “7”, this is more than balanced by the low numbers at the bottom of the poll. It’s impressive to remember that, at the beginning of the year, close to HALF of respondents (48.4% to be specific) voted “1” or “2”. Three months later, with little more than a handful of meaningful games in the book, the number of severe pessimists has been slashed by three-quarters. It’s dropped by almost half from the 23% just last month.

Below, you can see the breakdown of voting for the past year. Time progresses from the top down, beginning with the April 2018 poll.

The result was an uptick overall of just under three-tenths of a point, with fan confidence at the beginning of April now sitting at 4.49. It is worth mentioning that this is still the lowest “Opening Day” value in survey history, being 0.88 points below the previous worst figure, from the 2017 season. The training wheels of spring training are now also off, and confidence going forward will sink or swim based on meaningful performances. But I’m thinking there’s a good chance this month’s poll might break the streak of six consecutive “lowest ever for the month” results which we’ve seen, dating back to November last year. Here’s the chart with all the poll averages.

May poll

I think it’s safe to say that April was a very pleasant surprise indeed. The team set sail into the teeth of an opening schedule which, as Jack noted in March, was potentially daunting: more than two-thirds of our first 41 games coming against teams which won 90 or more last season. But the Diamondbacks are through the bulk of that in impressively decent shape. They sit at 17-13, with a solidly positive run differential, despite the losses of Steven Souza and Jake Lamb, and the struggles of Zack Godley. Is this sustainable? That’s why the season is 162 games, and not thirty. But more importantly for the purposes of this: what has this done to your confidence?

Here’s the poll: as usual, explanations are welcome in the comments...