In case you missed it, before the season we continued a long tradition of opening the doors to the SnakePit Casino. There, we gave people $1,500 SnakePit Dollars, and invited them to wager on a series of over/under lines, for D-backs player and team performance this season. We capped each individual bet at $500, so you have to make at least three bets. Today, we have the first update on the standings: as well as the financial ramifications, it actually offers a good “snapshot” of the overall state of the team.
For each bet below, you’ll first get the line drawn by Bovada.lv. Then, in brackets, the amount wagered over and under by the 37 participating gamblers, rounded to the nearest dollar. Finally, we have the end-of-year pace, based on games to this point, and whether that number will be over or under the line. All stats are based on the position through 27 games, which was Friday’s win over the Cubs.
NOTE. Betters should check the official spreadsheet for any errors on their wagers that occurred during transcription from their slips. While I checked totals. there’s a non-zero chance I flipped a bet from over to under or vice-versa somewhere... Especially because I’m still not yet functioning at 100%, and would really rather be in bed, instead of transcribing figures to two decimals points out of the SnakePit into a spreadsheet. I hope you are all appropriately grateful [pauses to shotgun NyQuil, rattles somewhat when he moves]
2019 Wins: 75.5 (2746-5636) - PACE 96, OVER
Overall team wins were the most popular category, with over S$8,300 wagered on this line. Pessimism was the order of the day, with the under being more popular by a 2:1 margin. So far, however, that hasn’t been warranted, with the D-backs going 16-11 over the first portion of the season. That means they only need to go 60-75 the rest of the way to cross the line: not certain, of course, but this was certainly a far better start to the season than most of us expected.
- David Peralta - Total BA: .290 (752-2271) - PACE .333, OVER
- David Peralta - Total HR’s: 24.5 (731-1092) - PACE 18, UNDER
David Peralta - Total RBI’s: 75.5 (2283-190) - PACE 108, OVER
Is the Freight Train now the face of the franchise, after the departure of Paul Goldschmidt? Could be: both in terms of seniority with the franchise and being a vocal member of the roster. So far, Peralta has had an excellent start to the season, one of the main reasons why the offense has performed so far over expectations. Small sample size naturally applies, but even the home-runs are hardly behind pace (the HR he hit last night isn’t included, but basically puts him back on track to be very close to the line).
- Jake Lamb - Total HR’s: 24.5 (1436-4286) - PACE 0, UNDER
Jake Lamb - Total RBI’s: 79.5 (1107-715) - PACE 12, UNDER
Lamb appeared in only five games this season, before suffering a quadriceps strain while running the bases. He’s expected to miss six weeks - we’re about half-way through that period. That’s going to make for a tough uphill climb, with Lamb probably missing 40 or more games - and that presume he hasn’t lost his everyday starting position at first-base to Christian Walker.
Robbie Ray - Total Wins: 10.5 (4723-650) - PACE 6, UNDER
It took Ray six attempts to win his first game of the season, that coming in the final game under consideration here. The irony is, by Game Score, it was Robbie’s second-worst outing of the season. Run support has been the main reason why he doesn’t have more: over his three best starts, the D-backs scored a total of four runs.
- Steven Souza - Total HR’s: 20.5 (831-1065) - PACE 0, UNDER BOOK CLOSED
Steven Souza - Total RBI’s: 68.5 (331-615) - PACE 0, UNDER BOOK CLOSED
Seems like there’s always a sad line each season, and this is probably going to be the 2019 contender. Souza’s campaign ended before it began, trashing the internals of his knee running across home-plate at Chase, and bringing a rapid end to betting. There was generally some skepticism as to whether he’d have been able to deliver, with the under being favored on both lines. Those people can now take that to the bank.
- Zach Greinke - ERA: 3.30 (2590-1083) - PACE 3,72, OVER
- Zach Greinke - Total Strikeouts: 190.5 (486-1086) - PACE 234, OVER
Zach Greinke - Total Wins: 12.5 (4473-0) - PACE 24, OVER
Conversely to Ray, Greinke has been piling up the wins, after his crappy Opening Day debut in Dodger Stadium. Since then, he has gone 4-0 in five starts, with a 2.20 ERA and a K:BB of 36:5. Health permitting, this seems like an excellent bet, and the over was extremely popular, with no-one daring to bet against Zack. So far, a wise choice.
Zack Godley - Total Wins: 10.5 (831-2992) - PACE 6, UNDER
The same can not be said for Godley, whose grasp on a rotation spot is surely tenuous after another very poor outing last night at Chase Field. With just one win to his credit, it seems entirely possible he may not get another ten starts, never mind the ten victories needed to push across the line. Certainly, doubt was severe among the bettors, with the under proving popular - and probably wise.
So far, so good for the customers in general, with an overall profit being turned at this point of almost S$4,500. No-one is yet in the hole by more than $500, though on the other hand, the only person with a perfect record is TucsonTim, whose trifecta of unders on Souza and Godley, and over on Greinke wins, is looking pretty solid so far. Here are the full standings.
- TucsonTim: $1,500.00
- piratedan7: $900.00
- Hannibal4467: $900.00
- GuruB: $700.00
- DBacksEurope: $600.00
- Craig’s City Counsell: $500.00
- Xerostomia: $500.00
- The Lord Humungus: $500.00
- Imstillhungry95: $500.00
- Jack Sommers: $500.00
- makakilo - $500.00
- SenSurround: $379.70
- Steven Burt: $346.14
- AZPerson: $300.00
- Keegan Thompson: -$300.00
- suroeste: $300.00
- Jackwriter: $200.00
- Fangdango: $115.38
- NikT77: $0.00
- JoeCB1991: -$100.00
- Jander1023: -$100.00
- Vincej138: -$115.38
- ryeandi: -$136.36
- onedotfive: -$200.00
- MrMrrbi: -$300.00
- AzDbackfanInDc: -$500.00
- LafferCap: -$500.00
- red_leader: -$500.00
- Sprankton: -$500.00
- Sean Testerman: -$500.00
- ponus: -$500.00