202 people completed our survey to predict the Opening Day outfield roster for the Arizona Diamondbacks. No real surprises at the top, with three obvious players all being named on over 90% of the ballots. There are two players seen as having a slightly better than 50/50 chance of making the roster, and the rest of the field are down below 30%, so are considered as fringe possibilities. However, even there, we had some interesting changes from the “quality rankings” earlier in the week. Below are the percentages of votes for each player to be on the roster for Opening Day later this month. In brackets is their position in the ranking phase:
- 96.5% - David Peralta (1.3)
- 94.1% - Steven Souza Jr. (2.5)
- 91.6% - Ketel Marte (3.0)
- 63.9% - Socrates Brito (4.9)
- 58.9% - Jarrod Dyson (4.6)
- 27.7% - Yasmany Tomás (8.6)
- 20.8% - Tim Locastro (7.1)
- 15.3% - Matt Szczur (8.2)
- 13.4% - Abraham Almonte (7.5)
- 6.4% - Rob Refsnyder (8.9)
- 3.5% - Andrew Aplin (9.3)
The top three stand in the same order for both sections, and are basically locks, for whom spring performance is almost an irrelevance. The first change is at #4, where Brito is seen as 5% more likely than Dyson to make it. That’s probably a combination of two factors: Brito being out of options, and Dyson’s health (he has yet to appear in a Cactus League game). As someone suggested, the team may end up playing roster 3D chess, with Dyson being DL’d in order to retain the services of Brito at the start of the year, until we see what we have with him. At the very least, I’d expect Brito to be one of the last cuts made in spring, to maximize the chances of him being snuck through waivers with other rosters being full.
Beyond those two, a surprise to see Tomas voted onto the roster by better than a quarter of respondents. Man, it must have taken AzDbacksFanInDc forever to make all of those fifty accounts. :) Yasmany did have a key clutch hit in yesterday’s win over the Dodgers, which was great to see. Going by his comments, I think he seems to realize he’s drinking at the last chance saloon, though Christian Walker’s hot start seems to have given him an edge to be Jake Lamb’s platoony at first-base. Not being on the 40-man roster could be an issue, and I still think it’s more likely he will start in Reno, due to that. Below him, the other contenders seem likely to need injuries to make it, and not just to Dyson either.