If familiar with this series go ahead and skip to poll. If not, please read on.
This series of articles will run from now until shortly before opening day. The purpose is to crowd source the D-Backs fans of this website to get a sense of how they feel about the prospects of each individual player on the 40 man roster.
For this exercise I will only be using rate (average) stats and poll the readers on their sense of direction for that player’s level of basic performance, regardless of playing time expectations. I’m not including defense and base running, so no WAR here, as that is playing time dependent.
You will be given two poll options: The player will either exceed the projection or under perform the projection by 5% for hitters OPS or 10% for pitchers ERA/FIP. There is no middle option to vote on. (Otherwise the majority of votes would end up agreeing with the projection). What I am looking for is if you are forced to indicate your sense of direction for the player, is it well over or under the projection?
Other Points of note:
- Projections are the average of Steamer and ZIPS projections. (Click through for original tables)
- The projections draw on 3 or 4 year samples, weighting most recent seasons the heaviest, but I’m just showing 2018 and career stats in mini table below for simplicity
- The player’s name is high lighted with a link to the player’s Baseball-Reference page. Click on that to see more player history and detail
- Age is the 2019 player age.
- Polls will run until mid March, so if you miss a player, you can go to the story stream box on the front page and find a player you might have missed .
Please let us know in the comments section your thoughts behind your vote. Thanks !
MERRILL KELLY , Age 29
Merrill Kelly has a projection for a 4.68 ERA, 4.61 FIP. Is he likely to come in Over or Under ?
This poll is closed
Over 5.15 ERA, 5.07 FIP
Under 4.21 ERA, 4.15 FIP