Arizona Diamondbacks October confidence poll

September results

There was a bit of a delay in the September poll, which wasn’t posted until the seventh of the month. That matters because September 7 was the day the D-backs beat the Reds 2-0, their 11th win in the last 12 games. They were just a game and a half back in the wild-card race, and apparently surging. Of course, it didn’t last: Arizona then lost their next six in a row, as the offense sputtered, and their playoff chances evaporated as quickly as they had arrived. However, the false dawn that the winning streak represented, certainly had an impact on the results of the September confidence poll.

• 1% - 1 (not confident in the slightest)
• 1% - 2
• 1% - 3
• 3% - 4
• 6% - 5
• 13% - 6
• 30% - 7
• 22% - 8
• 23% - 9 (very, very, VERY confident)

That’s a remarkable surge. Three-quarters of people voted 7 or above, and there were literally less than a handful of the exactly 200 people who responded, that went for three or below (there’s rounding involved in the above figures, before you ask!). That stands in sharp contrast to the result in June, when the average was a 3.60, with more than two-thirds of people voting at four or below. I think it’s probably testament to the inbuilt short memory span of fans. We all tend to over-react violently to the most recent sample size - whether for good or bad.

That’s what we see here, with confidence jumping by almost two and a half points from the check-in at the beginning of August. The average works out at 7.23, which is the fourth-highest in the four seasons we’ve been running these polls, behind Sep/Oct of 2017, and May 2018. At least it breaks the trend by which this year was mirroring the changes from 2018! Below, you can see the breakdown for the past 12 months’ results, followed by the line graph showing the averages.

October poll

Fairly obviously, I’m expecting the number this month to regress, considering the team was inexplicably able to maintain that 11-1 run. :) But perhaps the strong end to the season, winning the last three series and five games in a row, to end ahead of last year’s record, will cushion the impact of that drop as we head into the off-season. It promised to be a good deal less tumultuous than last winter, but I’m curious to see in what areas Mike Hazen acts to improve the team, and what he does to do so. As usual, let us know your confidence rating and the reasoning behind it, in the comments.