Arizona Diamondbacks January confidence poll

December results

The last poll was taken just before the winter meetings - not than anything much happened there, but there was definitely the feeling that “something” was afoot. Rumors were circling about the futures of Zack Greinke and Paul Goldschmidt, and it felt almost like we were waiting for an inevitable shoe to drop, if not an entire, Imelda Marcos-sized closet of them. There was certainly no shortage of interest, with the highest number of voters since May putting in their two cents’ worth.

• 11% - 1 (not confident in the slightest)
• 13% - 2
• 22% - 3
• 18% - 4
• 19% - 5
• 10% - 6
• 3% - 7
• 2% - 8
• 2% - 9 (very, very, VERY confident)

As has become the standard of late, the only thing consistent about what people think is their inconsistency. Another month with no number reaching even a quarter of the votes. We had that every single poll from May 2017 through to August 2018 inclusive - but haven’t seen it at all since. Most of the changes from the previous month were small. No figure changed by more than six percent compared to the November poll. But the trend was unmistakable: choices 1 through 4 all increased, while 5 through 9 all decreased in popularity.

Below, you can see the breakdown of voting for the past year. Time progresses from the top down, beginning with the December 2017 poll.

After a moderate gain in confidence for November, all that and fractionally more was undone in the December poll. Average confidence dropped by just over half a point from 4.38 to 3.87, the lowest figure we have seen in this survey since October 2016, as we recovered from the Dave Stewart era. Here’s the chart with all the poll averages.

January poll

Hoo-boy. I’m pretty sure this one won’t be pretty, as since the last time we checked fandom’s pulse, the team has simply traded away the best position player in franchise history. There will be no Paul Goldschmidt with the team in 2019. You don’t have to be Nostradamus - I think Criswell would probably do - in order to predict what that trade will do to confidence among Diamondbacks’ supporters. It’s less the direction of the move which interests me, as the size. The term “confidence” also encompasses many things, and short- vs. long-term is a fair question. Does Goldschmidt’s departure hurt the former, while making us feel better about the latter?

As usual, explanations are welcome in the comments...